Amid all the turbulence, Bitcoin’s trading range narrows further – Cryptocurrency News



It’s been a bumpy few months in financial markets to say the least, with a torrid rally on Wall Street turning into a torrid selloff. FX and bond markets have been equally volatile but looking at the price action for most cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin’s, it’s been unusually steady. This is not to argue that the day-to-day moves in cryptos are not as choppy as they used to be because the intra-day swings remain one of the highest across assets. But the flat trading range of between $18,000 and $25,000 shows no sign of being broken anytime soon.

The consolidation before the next fall?

To be fair, this is not the first time Bitcoin has been caught in a sideways range. Before the plunge in early June that kicked off the latest consolidation phase, the price was stuck in a narrow range, which itself was a response to the nosedive from the $40,000 level at the beginning of May. But the pattern goes back even further than this as it all started after the downfall from the all-time high of $69,000 reached in November 2021. The selloff lasted until January this year after which it consolidated in an upward channel that turned out to be a bearish continuation signal.

But does that mean that the same thing is about to happen again? The current floor of $18,000 has been tested several times, most recently a couple of weeks ago, but seems to be holding, although the price has stayed dangerously close to the lower bound since then. The daily momentum indicators are slightly positive.

Overcoming the 50-day MA is important

The key test in the immediate term is whether Bitcoin will be able to smash above its 50-day moving average (MA), which is increasingly confining prices below it and the range floor. Failure to do so could tilt the risks back to the downside, increasing the likelihood of a bearish breakout. A drop below $18,000 would turn attention to the $15,000 and $13,000 levels.

However, should the bulls succeed in pushing the price above the 50-day MA, the range ceiling at $25,000 would become the next target, followed by the 200-day MA, currently at $27,823.

Losing out to equities

With the correlation with equity markets weakened somewhat lately, predicting the next direction may have become a lot more difficult. Having said that, the correlation with Fed rate hike expectations remains more or less intact. The slump in June coincided with the sharp repricing of Fed rate hikes by futures markets round about the same time, while some paring back of the hawkish bets is aiding the latest upside.

Interestingly, the flat trend also took shape when the Fed began its balance sheet runoff, draining liquidity out of the markets. This could explain why the huge rally on Wall Street over the summer was mirrored by only a very shallow uptrend in Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies are considered riskier than stocks so when there are less funds to go around, they lose out. The ongoing problem with crypto hackers only goes to highlight this.

Waiting for the Fed pivot

More recently, however, it seems that Bitcoin benefited somewhat from the turmoil sparked by the UK budget, with investors using it as a hedge against sterling’s depreciation. This may have helped Bitcoin to defend the $18,000 support, but the fact that the price was neutral during this episode suggests there were as many sellers as buyers.

Ultimately though, despite the weaker correlation with equities and other risk assets in general, it’s the Fed that will likely set the mood for all. With concerns about the US and global economy growing by the day, investors think it’s only a matter of time before the Fed reaches peak hawkishness. The first sign of a dovish tilt by the Fed could be what it takes to break Bitcoin’s neutral range.

But the longer it takes for the Fed to make that crucial pivot, the greater the odds of Bitcoin slipping below $18,000 and repeating the bearish continuation pattern.

إخلاء المسؤولية: تتيح كيانات XM Group خدمة تنفيذية فقط والدخول إلى منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت، مما يسمح للشخص بمشاهدة و/أو استخدام المحتوى المتاح على موقع الويب أو عن طريقه، وهذا المحتوى لا يراد به التغيير أو التوسع عن ذلك. يخضع هذا الدخول والاستخدام دائماً لما يلي: (1) الشروط والأحكام؛ (2) تحذيرات المخاطر؛ (3) إخلاء المسؤولية الكامل. لذلك يُقدم هذا المحتوى على أنه ليس أكثر من معلومات عامة. تحديداً، يرجى الانتباه إلى أن المحتوى المتاح على منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت ليس طلباً أو عرضاً لدخول أي معاملات في الأسواق المالية. التداول في أي سوق مالي به مخاطرة عالية برأس مالك.

جميع المواد المنشورة على منصة تداولنا مخصصة للأغراض التعليمية/المعلوماتية فقط ولا تحتوي - ولا ينبغي اعتبار أنها تحتوي - على نصائح أو توصيات مالية أو ضريبية أو تجارية، أو سجلاً لأسعار تداولنا، أو عرضاً أو طلباً لأي معاملة في أي صكوك مالية أو عروض ترويجية مالية لا داعي لها.

أي محتوى تابع للغير بالإضافة إلى المحتوى الذي أعدته XM، مثل الآراء، والأخبار، والأبحاث، والتحليلات والأسعار وغيرها من المعلومات أو روابط مواقع تابعة للغير وواردة في هذا الموقع تُقدم لك "كما هي"، كتعليق عام على السوق ولا تعتبر نصيحة استثمارية. يجب ألا يُفسر أي محتوى على أنه بحث استثماري، وأن تلاحظ وتقبل أن المحتوى غير مُعدٍ وفقاً للمتطلبات القانونية المصممة لتعزيز استقلالية البحث الاستثماري، وبالتالي، فهو بمثابة تواصل تسويقي بموجب القوانين واللوائح ذات الصلة. فضلاً تأكد من أنك قد قرأت وفهمت الإخطار بالبحوث الاستثمارية غير المستقلة والتحذير من مخاطر المعلومات السابقة، والذي يمكنك الاطلاع عليه هنا.

نحن نستخدم ملفات الكوكيز لنمنحك أفضل تجربة على موقعنا. يمكنك قراءة المزيد أو تغيير إعدادات الكوكيز.

تحذير المخاطر: رأس مالك في خطر. المنتجات التي تستخدم الرافعة قد لا تكون مناسبة للجميع. يرجى الاطلاع على تنبيه المخاطر.