Quarterly data on construction (Wednesday, 0030 GMT) and capital expenditure (Thursday, 0030 GMT) are awaited in Australia this week and should provide some indication as to what to expect from Q4 GDP numbers due next week. It’s likely capital spending will have risen for the first time in a year in the December quarter, but given the new headwinds – the coronavirus outbreak and the bushfires – facing the Australian economy in 2020, the data may not matter much for [..]
With not much on the economic calendar to enthuse markets next week, the virus and its impact on economies globally is likely to remain the primary driver of risk sentiment. Still, there are some important indicators worth keeping an eye on. Overall, there’s little to suggest that the dollar’s relentless rally is about to end, as the US economy is much better positioned than its rivals to weather any slowdown in China. That said, the more the dollar climbs, the [..]
Preliminary PMI data out of the Eurozone will hit the markets on Friday at 09:00 GMT. Forecasts point to a mild decline in both the manufacturing and services indices, as concerns around the virus damage in China may have started to infect European business sentiment. As for the devastated euro, it’s difficult to see what can turn its fortunes around outside of a big fiscal spending package, which is not on the horizon. When the levee breaks The past few [..]
As the UK debates whether to open the fiscal taps, economic data is likely to return to the headlines on Thursday and Friday, with investors hoping to see more signs of a turnaround from the latest retail sales and flash PMI numbers. Retail sales figures for January are due on Thursday at 09:30 GMT, while the preliminary PMIs for February will be released on Friday, also at 09:30 GMT. Talk of a fiscal stimulus, as well as comparatively better data [..]
The minutes of the latest Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. Nothing much happened or was said back then, so the minutes are unlikely to contain any major policy signals. Instead, investors might look to the preliminary PMIs for February that are due on Friday for clues on whether virus uncertainty has started to infect America too. As for the dollar, there’s nothing on the horizon to suggest the explosive uptrend is [..]
Canada will publish its first inflation figures for the new year on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT before releasing retail sales data for the month of December on Friday at the same time. Given its direct impact on monetary policy and the fact that December’s numbers are considered outdated, the inflation report, could be a more important market mover among data releases for the loonie this week, which has just managed to stabilize from the strong sell-off since the start of [..]
After taking a beating from virus concerns, the Australian dollar will now look to the nation’s wage growth data for Q4 that are due on Wednesday before the all-important jobs numbers for January due on Thursday, both at 00:30 GMT. The risks surrounding the aussie from these releases appear tilted to the downside. Stellar figures might be brushed aside as outdated, but disappointing ones could signal the economy was already losing steam before the virus impact. Collateral damage The aussie [..]
The UK is delivering its last employment report for 2019 on Tuesday at 09:30 GMT and forecasts are for softer prints which are likely to increase the odds for a rate cut, consequently triggering a downside correction in the pound ahead of a more important batch of data releases later in the week. The decline, however, may be limited as markets anticipate a more expansionary fiscal policy under the new minister of finance. Fiscal policy reduces the need for [..]
After Japan’s unexpectedly large drop in GDP in the fourth quarter, factory, trade and inflation figures will come under the spotlight this week. Machinery orders and trade numbers will be released on Wednesday (Tuesday, 23:50 GMT), followed by CPI data (Thursday, 23:30 GMT) and the Jibun manufacturing PMI (00:30 GMT) on Friday. Although the Bank of Japan is not seen rushing to increase monetary stimulus, despite mounting recession risks, policymakers may not have much choice if the outlook does not [..]
The preliminary PMIs for February will take centre stage next week as they will provide the first insight into the possible impact of the coronavirus on the global economy. The flash releases in the Eurozone, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States should reveal how businesses outside of China have been affected by the outbreak with the risk that runaway equity markets may be handed a tough reality check. In other data, Australian employment and Canadian and UK retail [..]
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