The last of the major central bank meetings of 2019 will be the main highlights next week as the Bank of England and Bank of Japan get their chance to set policy after the Fed and ECB decisions this week. Sweden’s and Norway’s central banks will too be holding policy meetings in the coming days and it’s going to be a busy week for economic data as well, with the December flash PMI releases attracting the most attention. The pound [..]
Flash PMI indicators for December will be watched out of the Eurozone on Monday (09:00 GMT) as they could provide more tepid signs of recovery in the euro area. As the year draws to a close, there’s hope the worst is over for the struggling Eurozone economy, though it may be too early to judge whether worse pain is still to come. In the meantime, it may be difficult for the euro to post a convincing uptrend and could be [..]
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its quarterly decision at 08:30 GMT on Thursday. No action is expected, though markets do assign an almost 20% chance for a rate cut. That said, since the SNB already boasts the lowest interest rates globally, it doesn’t have many ‘rate bullets’ left, so it may prefer to save its final rate cut in case a shock hits. The franc could spike higher if rates are indeed left unchanged, while its broader direction [..]
Britons go to the polls on Thursday for a parliamentary general election that is likely to determine the outcome of Brexit. The election – the first to be held in December since 1923 – comes just two and a half years after Theresa May’s attempt to capitalize on her huge lead in the polls spectacularly backfired. The present prime minister, Boris Johnson, and his Conservative party appear to be having better success this time round, maintaining a sizeable lead over [..]
The European central bank’s policy meeting on Thursday at 12:45 GMT will be the last before the year end and the first for the new president Christine Lagarde. Although it is clear that no adjustment in policy will be announced, the event will be closely watched as investors are trying to get an impression about what the leadership profile and tone of the new chief who will lead the ECB for the next eight years will be and how this [..]
The Fed will announce its policy decision on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. Having slashed rates at its last three meetings, no action is expected this time, so the dollar will take its cue from the signals about future cuts and specifically, from the updated ‘dot plot’. With markets still pricing in a full rate cut by November 2020, a dot plot that shows an unchanged Federal funds rate next year could come as a ‘hawkish’ surprise and by extension, lift [..]
The main event will be the UK general election on Thursday, which could decide what form Brexit takes and shape the pound’s fortunes for months. Central bank meetings will serve as a prelude. The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged, and may reinforce the message that it will remain on hold for a while. The ECB will hold its first gathering under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, but is unlikely to provide any fireworks. Instead, trade news could dominate, [..]
The latest US employment data will hit the markets at 13:30 GMT on Friday, with forecasts pointing to yet another solid report. Markets aren’t pricing in much chance of a Fed rate cut in the coming months, so any disappointment in these data could trigger a significant negative reaction in the dollar, whereas a positive surprise may not lift the currency too much. Having said that, the overall outlook surrounding the greenback still seems positive. Still the only game in [..]
The trade environment is not friendly for the Canadian economy and therefore for the loonie at the moment but the Bank of Canada will likely decide to stand pat on interest rates when it meets on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT as some encouraging signs from the domestic economy allow the Bank to postpone the decision for now. November’s employment report could come to justify any rate cut delay on Friday at 13:30 GMT. It’s not time for a rate cut [..]
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will complete its latest meeting at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, and markets expect no action this time. The aussie’s reaction will therefore depend on the signals for future rate cuts. Judging by the deterioration in recent data, policymakers are likely to strengthen their easing bias, which could exacerbate the currency’s losses. GDP data for Q3 and retail sales for October will follow on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, at 00:30 GMT. Dark clouds The clouds [..]
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