The latest inflation figures out of New Zealand will hit the markets during the early Asian session on Wednesday (21:45 GMT Tuesday). Forecasts point to a slowdown, which if met, would all but guarantee another RBNZ rate cut next month. As for the kiwi, the outlook remains dark as both the domestic and the global economy are weakening, and even a positive surprise in these data may be unable to keep the battered currency supported for long. Insecure New Zealand’s [..]
The latest employment numbers are due out of Australia on Thursday (0030 GMT) and may help investors get a better sense about the state of the labour market amid some mixed signals. Developments in the labour market are a key factor in monetary policy setting by the Reserve Bank of Australia, while the twists and turns in the long-running trade war saga have also been influencing policymakers’ thinking. The Australian dollar is unlikely to catch a break anytime soon as [..]
The latest UK inflation and retail sales data are due on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, but as usual, Brexit news will dominate price action in the pound. Focus remains on whether a deal can be struck in the coming days, which is very doubtful. As for the pound, the relief rally may not be over just yet, as most potential near-term outcomes seem favorable. Either a deal gets done now, or the UK gets an extension that is followed by [..]
Retail sales figures will be the main highlight of the US economic calendar this week as investors keep a close eye on the strength of household consumption amid signs of weakness in other parts of the American economy. The data, due on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, could be significant for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision on October 29-30. But policymakers will also be watching a number of manufacturing gauges expected this week as the sector struggles under the weight [..]
Monthly reports on inflation, retail sales and employment will get into full swing next week, but China is likely to steal the limelight as it will have the busiest calendar. All eyes will be on the third quarter GDP estimate as China battles to prevent a hard landing of its economy amid a deepening trade dispute with the United States. But the ongoing trade war isn’t the only thing that will be causing fatigue for investors as the Brexit drama [..]
Monthly GDP growth readings for the month of August will come out of the UK on Thursday at 08:30 GMT and forecasts argue for a pullback in expansion as recent data out of the services sector have already warned. While the Brexit turmoil is holding the central bank’s hands tied, policymakers may not wait for long to join the dovish camp. Where are we on Brexit? The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has submitted a new Brexit proposal to the European Commission [..]
The latest employment data out of Canada – at 12:30 GMT on Friday – will reveal whether the economy remains an oasis of strength in an otherwise weakening global environment. Forecasts point to another decent month, but PMI surveys were not as optimistic, suggesting that a disappointment in the jobs data may be more likely. As for the loonie, the outlook seems negative. If monetary policy divergence wasn’t enough to propel the currency higher in recent months, it’s difficult to [..]
The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its September 17-18 policy meeting on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Inflation data out of the United States due on Thursday (12:30 GMT) will also be watched as investors seek clues for the Fed’s next move as the October meeting looms on the horizon. But with the US dollar unable to shake off its strong appeal in a weakening global economic backdrop, a boost to rate cut expectations from dovish minutes and/or soft [..]
Top American and Chinese negotiators will face off in another round of trade talks on Thursday. Will the two sides reach a ‘limited’ trade deal, where Beijing buys agricultural US products in exchange for Washington postponing its planned tariff hikes? It’s a close call, but a failure to reach such a deal could leave markets disappointed and spark another bout of risk aversion. High hopes The stakes are especially high heading into this negotiating round, as the US is scheduled [..]
Without a doubt, the main event next week will be the US-China trade talks, which commence on Thursday. Several key economic data are also on the menu, but those will only be a sideshow. Rather, what will make or break market sentiment is whether the two superpowers reach an ‘interim’ trade deal that deescalates tensions a little. It’s a very close call, but Trump may have more incentives not to strike a small deal, and keep ‘maximum pressure’ on Beijing [..]
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