There isn’t much on the calendar next week other than economic data, so it may be a relatively calm period as a turbulent summer draws to a close. The G7 summit in France could grab some headlines, but markets usually ignore such events. Instead, the focus may fall mainly on any trade news, as the US prepares to unleash new China tariffs on September 1. Euro area inflation numbers in sight as Draghi prepares for ‘last act’ In the euro [..]
It might be another troublesome week for the euro as initial Eurozone PMI readings for the month of August could enhance the case for a heavier stimulus package by the European Central Bank. The reaction in the euro however will depend on the level of monetary easing investors have already priced in, with the Fed’s Jackson Hole and the G7 meetings affecting traders’ sentiment as well. On Thursday at 0730 GMT the IHS Markit survey is likely to report further [..]
It will be a decisive week for the US dollar, with the minutes of the latest Fed meeting being released on Wednesday (18:00 GMT), before Fed chief Jay Powell delivers remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday (14:00 GMT). Since the minutes won’t reflect the latest escalation in trade, they could appear slightly hawkish relative to current market pricing, lifting the dollar. Any gains may remain short-lived though, if Powell opens the door for a prolonged easing cycle. Market [..]
Canada is not synonymous with the trade war and economic slowdown and yet markets are giving warning signs that the country is headed for a recession. Recent economic indicators have been largely encouraging, pointing to accelerated growth. This week’s upcoming data on inflation (Wednesday, 12:30 GMT) and retail sales (Friday, 12:30 GMT) are expected to be consistent with this trend. And yet the Canadian dollar is hovering near two-month lows versus the greenback on market bets that the Bank of [..]
The summer lull will continue into next week as economic releases will remain sparse. However, central bank minutes and the annual gathering of central bankers at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium should generate plenty of headlines ahead of expected policy easings in September. Trade and geopolitical tensions will also come to the fore as world leaders attend a G7 summit in France. Aussie and kiwi to remain on the backfoot The Australian and New Zealand dollars have managed to steady [..]
Wage and employment data will be watched out of Australia this week as investors try to guess how many more rate cuts are on the cards for the rest of the year. The wage price index is released first on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT, with the employment numbers coming up on Thursday, also at 01:30 GMT. Given the huge weighting the Reserve Bank of Australia is attaching to developments in the labour market in setting monetary policy, the upcoming data [..]
The US consumer price index, retail sales and industrial production are all scheduled for release this week but whatever the actual results are the markets will keep the odds for a September rate cut high as the US-Sino trade trouble looks irreversible in the year ahead. Instead, the question should be how aggressively the Fed should act to balance the economy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of July will come first into view on Tuesday at 1230 [..]
The world’s second-largest economy reports retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment data early on Wednesday. Forecasts point to a slowdown in most figures, which if met, could signal that the trade war has truly started to inflict pain – despite substantial stimulus. Alongside the yuan, the China-sensitive aussie will also keep an eye on these prints, though the bigger driver for both will probably be what happens next in the trade saga. China’s economy probably lost steam at [..]
A raft of data is due out of the UK next week, but with key Brexit dates coming up in September and October, investors will likely ignore the usually closely watched indicators. Nevertheless, the releases may provide some near-term support for the battered pound, starting with jobs numbers on Tuesday, followed by inflation on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday, all due at 08:30 GMT. UK labour market to remain tight Although Britain’s labour market has cooled somewhat in recent [..]
It may be a quiet week in financial markets, with no central bank meetings or any other major events on the agenda, as the summer lull finally kicks in. Economic data will therefore attract most of the attention, though any tweets on the trade war or Brexit news could always stir things up. British data unlikely to be a game-changer for the pummeled pound The UK economy continues to feel the heat, with GDP growth contracting in Q2, as Brexit [..]
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