Monthly reports on inflation, retail sales and employment will get into full swing next week, but China is likely to steal the limelight as it will have the busiest calendar. All eyes will be on the third quarter GDP estimate as China battles to prevent a hard landing of its economy amid a deepening trade dispute with the United States. But the ongoing trade war isn’t the only thing that will be causing fatigue for investors as the Brexit drama [..]
Monthly GDP growth readings for the month of August will come out of the UK on Thursday at 08:30 GMT and forecasts argue for a pullback in expansion as recent data out of the services sector have already warned. While the Brexit turmoil is holding the central bank’s hands tied, policymakers may not wait for long to join the dovish camp. Where are we on Brexit? The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has submitted a new Brexit proposal to the European Commission [..]
The latest employment data out of Canada – at 12:30 GMT on Friday – will reveal whether the economy remains an oasis of strength in an otherwise weakening global environment. Forecasts point to another decent month, but PMI surveys were not as optimistic, suggesting that a disappointment in the jobs data may be more likely. As for the loonie, the outlook seems negative. If monetary policy divergence wasn’t enough to propel the currency higher in recent months, it’s difficult to [..]
The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its September 17-18 policy meeting on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Inflation data out of the United States due on Thursday (12:30 GMT) will also be watched as investors seek clues for the Fed’s next move as the October meeting looms on the horizon. But with the US dollar unable to shake off its strong appeal in a weakening global economic backdrop, a boost to rate cut expectations from dovish minutes and/or soft [..]
Top American and Chinese negotiators will face off in another round of trade talks on Thursday. Will the two sides reach a ‘limited’ trade deal, where Beijing buys agricultural US products in exchange for Washington postponing its planned tariff hikes? It’s a close call, but a failure to reach such a deal could leave markets disappointed and spark another bout of risk aversion. High hopes The stakes are especially high heading into this negotiating round, as the US is scheduled [..]
Without a doubt, the main event next week will be the US-China trade talks, which commence on Thursday. Several key economic data are also on the menu, but those will only be a sideshow. Rather, what will make or break market sentiment is whether the two superpowers reach an ‘interim’ trade deal that deescalates tensions a little. It’s a very close call, but Trump may have more incentives not to strike a small deal, and keep ‘maximum pressure’ on Beijing [..]
The US government is announcing nonfarm payrolls this Friday at 12:30 GMT and earlier signs of a manufacturing recession have raised concerns that a miss in forecasts is possible. The dollar, though, is likely to hold firm as weakness in other major markets bodes well for its relative performance. In September, the US economy is said to have created 145k new job positions compared to 130k registered in the preceding month, maintaining the unemployment rate stable at the almost 50-year low of [..]
Britain’s services PMI for September is due on Thursday at 08:30 GMT. Forecasts point to a decline in the index, which could raise the odds for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in the near term. Of course, politics will overshadow economics in driving the pound, so more attention may fall on Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals. If what has been released so far is accurate, the EU is unlikely to agree to them, which implies more pain ahead for [..]
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is setting interest rates on Tuesday at 04:30 GMT and markets expect another rate cut as key metrics continue to miss targets while external risks keep lingering in the background. Yet not all signs point to more easing as there is something Australia is not proud of and other counterparts do not face intensely, and this is called: household debt. While the Australian upward-moving trade surplus indicates surprisingly that there is not much damage coming from [..]
Preliminary CPI numbers for September out of the euro area will attract attention on Tuesday at 09:00 GMT. Forecasts suggest that inflation rose at the same pace, but the bloc’s weak PMI surveys imply that if there is any surprise in these figures, it may be a negative one. The euro is already trading at multi-year lows, and any disappointment could be the catalyst for further weakness. For this bearish tide to turn, markets may need to see signals for [..]
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