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Week ahead – Can nonfarm payrolls halt the dollar’s descent?

Posted on July 31, 2020 at 12:43 pm GMT

It’s a huge week ahead, with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England both announcing their rate decisions ahead of the all-important US employment data. For markets, the burning question is whether a decent payrolls report will be enough to halt the dollar’s relentless slide. The other variable that will impact most charts through the risk sentiment channel is whether Congress will reach a compromise on the new rescue package, and if so, how much they will [..]

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Euro to shrug off grim GDP data as outlook brightens on recovery plan – Forex News Preview

Posted on July 29, 2020 at 10:55 am GMT

GDP data out of the Eurozone on Thursday and Friday are expected to show the continent is facing its worst economic crisis since the second world war. Yet, the euro is looking the most bullish against the US dollar in a very long time. A strong stimulus response, combined with relative success in bringing the COVID-19 outbreak under control, has raised confidence in Europe’s ability to not only fight the crisis but to come out of it stronger. Hence, worse-than-expected [..]

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Australian CPI and China PMIs could add optimism for more gains in aussie – Forex News Preview

Posted on July 27, 2020 at 3:05 pm GMT

As markets deal with the real threat of surging coronavirus cases, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar will be looking at several indicators coming out this week and the following Monday out of Australia and China. The Australian inflation report is due on Wednesday at 0430 GMT, while China’s NBS and Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMIs are coming out on Friday (0430 GMT) and next Monday (0145 GMT), both of which come into the spotlight for traders. In the previous quarter, the annual inflation rate in Australia reached the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target, for the first [..]

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Fed meeting: A more cautious message – Forex News Preview

Posted on July 27, 2020 at 11:56 am GMT

The Federal Reserve will wrap up its latest meeting at 18:00 GMT Wednesday. No change in policy is expected, so the focus will be on Chairman Powell’s press conference at 18:30 GMT. With signs that the US recovery has flattened lately, Powell could adopt a more cautious tone, opening the door for more action in September. If so, that might be enough to accelerate the dollar’s freefall, though Thursday’s GDP numbers could provide some support.   Under pressure The US [..]

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Week Ahead – Fed meets as virus storm worsens; US and Eurozone set for historic GDP collapse

Posted on July 24, 2020 at 12:26 pm GMT

As US politicians squabble over the next fiscal stimulus bill and the country’s virus death toll ticks up again, markets may lean on the Federal Reserve next week for a quick fix. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will undoubtedly be the most eagerly awaited event of the week. But second quarter GDP prints out of the United States and the euro area will not be far behind as the full extent of the economic shock from COVID-19 is [..]

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European PMIs: More good news for the euro? – Forex News Preview

Posted on July 23, 2020 at 12:23 pm GMT

With the EU recovery fund deal now in the rear-view mirror, euro traders will turn their sights to the Eurozone’s preliminary PMIs for July, due at 08:00 GMT Friday. Forecasts point to an uptick in all indices, reflecting the smooth re-opening process in Europe. If so, this would be another piece of good news for the high-flying euro, whose rally may still have room to run, especially if the Fed hurts the dollar next week.    Europe vs America? It’s [..]

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UK retail sales and PMIs to put recovery on track but Brexit lurks in the background – Forex News Preview

Posted on July 22, 2020 at 2:25 pm GMT

Economic data out of the United Kingdom this week is expected to show the recovery gathered pace after the lifting of more lockdown restrictions in June and July. June retail sales figures are due on Friday at 06:00 GMT and will be followed by the flash PMI prints for July at 08:30 GMT. Upbeat numbers could bolster the pound’s advances, having bounced to the $1.27 region in the last few sessions. But Brexit woes risk spoiling cable’s mini rally amid [..]

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Canadian inflation and retail sales to drive loonie – Forex News Preview

Posted on July 22, 2020 at 12:19 pm GMT

Canada will publish its retail sales data for the month of May at 1230 GMT on Tuesday before releasing inflation figures for June at the same time on Wednesday. Given its sharp tumble in the preceding month, the retail sales report could be the most important market mover among data releases for the loonie this week, which has just managed to stabilize from last month’s sell-off. Why the Bank of Canada is avoiding a rate cut The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its interest [..]

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EU recovery fund done; what’s next for euro rally? – Forex News Preview

Posted on July 22, 2020 at 12:18 pm GMT

EUR/USD is poised to re-activate the bullish cycle that was interrupted by Covid-19 in early March after the EU recovery fund finally took shape. Fundamentally and technically, the pair has several reasons to hope for better days, but the euro may need to win the data competition against the dollar during the summer break in order to reach fresh highs. Recovery fund deal accomplished It was an intense four-day summit in Brussels as EU leaders struggled to agree on a recovery fund that [..]

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Week Ahead – Vaccine enthusiasm vs faltering recovery

Posted on July 17, 2020 at 11:30 am GMT

It’s a quiet week as far as scheduled events go, with the main highlight being the EU summit about the recovery fund, which exposes the euro to weekend risk. What will truly drive markets though, is the ongoing clash between hopes for a virus vaccine and worries that the economic recovery is ‘levelling off’. It’s a close call, but the market’s inability to really push higher even after promising vaccine news, combined with the Fed’s balance sheet shrinking, are ominous [..]

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