The Australian dollar is moving slightly higher against the US dollar over the last month as investors are waiting for the capital expenditure data for the third quarter on Thursday at 00:30 GMT ahead of the GDP figure on December 2. In the meantime, the aussie is forming a positive structure on the back of the positive vaccine news, which have opened up a pathway to a safe Australia, with the first doses set to be distributed to healthcare workers and the elderly by March. Will Capex affect GDP numbers? Capital [..]
There is not much on the agenda next week, but that doesn’t mean things will be quiet as the battle between longer-term vaccine hopes and the present lockdown reality continues to rage. The highlight on the economic calendar will be the latest PMIs, especially from the Eurozone, which will reveal how much damage the latest lockdowns have inflicted. In America, the latest Fed minutes might be viewed as outdated, so it will be all about infection numbers as more states [..]
The Eurozone will release a flash estimate of its consumer confidence index for the month of November on Friday at 15:00 GMT, likely revealing an extension of October’s decline. The data, however, will not be a big surprise to the euro, but will add more evidence to the existing narrative that the fresh partial lockdown will inevitably pull the bloc back into negative growth in the fourth quarter. Consumer confidence to slip to a six-month low Getting the virus under control needs [..]
It’s another week and another round of negotiations are taking place between UK and EU officials to try and clinch a deal on a post-Brexit trade agreement. With the transition period set to end on December 31, Thursday’s EU summit is seen as a potential date for a draft text to be agreed upon. But although pound traders remain optimistic, there’s already speculation that the latest “deadline” may slip away, dragging the negotiations into December. In the meantime, Britain’s economic [..]
October’s employment report for Australia is likely to catch investors’ eyes on Thursday at 0030 GMT, along with preliminary retail sales figure on Friday at 0030 GMT. The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Philip Lowe, has confirmed a major shift in Australia’s monetary policy by stating the central bank would now focus on employment rather than inflation. Nevertheless, the aussie continues to move higher against the US dollar but may soon need a boost for stronger bullish movements. [..]
America’s latest retail sales data will hit the markets at 13:30 GMT Tuesday, and investors will look for clues on whether the Fed will pull the easing trigger again in December. With US infections spiraling out of control lately, Congress locked in a stalemate over more fiscal relief, and longer-dated US bond yields rising after the vaccine news, the Fed may frankly have no choice. As for the dollar, all this may imply some pain, but the upside in euro/dollar [..]
After the US election and vaccine frenzy, economic data will move to the forefront in the coming week, with inflation and retail sales comprising the bulk of the releases. However, investors might be wrong to assume that the election and virus storms are over as Trump steps up his legal fight to overturn Joe Biden’s projected win and as several states in America head towards new lockdowns. If all that fails to produce enough drama, there is always Brexit waiting [..]
Japanese GDP preliminary numbers for Q3 2020 are coming up during the early Asian session on Sunday at 23:50 GMT. Japan’s economy likely rebounded in the third quarter as global demand picked up, but the effects of the Covid-19 crisis persisted, and it could take some time for output to return to pre-pandemic levels. Despite this week’s slide, the Japanese yen has been rising over the last seven months against the US dollar, while stronger figures may drive the market even higher. An expansion is predicted after the record shrink The Japanese gross domestic product [..]
In America, the highlights this week will be the latest CPI inflation data at 13:30 GMT Thursday and a speech by Fed Chairman Powell at 16:45 GMT, which could shed some light on whether the Fed will ramp up its stimulus dose again this year. The split Congress outcome and lack of a powerful relief package suggest it should, but the latest vaccine news has cast doubt on that. As for the dollar, any hints that the Fed won’t follow [..]
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is due to announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday (01:00 GMT) and will present its updated forecasts in the Monetary Policy Statement to be published at the same time. New Zealand’s economic prospects have started to turn up lately as the country emerges from a second nationwide lockdown. But uncertainty about the global outlook and a soaring local dollar mean the central bank is far from done in its easing cycle and is [..]
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