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US flash PMIs may bring glimmer of hope as Fed minutes likely to be downcast – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 19, 2020 at 11:49 am GMT

Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell has had a busy public speaking week and his schedule will remain busy as he testifies before Congress on Tuesday and participates in a ‘Fed Listens’ event on Thursday. The minutes of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting are also due this week (Wednesday, 18:00 GMT) and policymakers will likely strike a downbeat tone amid warnings of a slow recovery. However, with markets seeking any excuse – the latest being the Moderna vaccine trial – to [..]

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UK jobs and CPI data to kick start busy week for sterling as Brexit risks weigh – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 18, 2020 at 1:31 pm GMT

A raft of economic data is due out of the United Kingdom this week, starting with the labour market report on Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday. Both will be released at the earlier than usual time of 06:00 GMT. Following last week’s dire GDP figures, traders should be braced for more depressing readings on the economy, with the March jobs numbers stealing the limelight early in the week. But as if things weren’t critical enough with the [..]

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Week Ahead – Reopening woes and trade fears dent sentiment

Posted on May 15, 2020 at 12:45 pm GMT

The coming week seems relatively quiet. The preliminary PMIs for April in the UK, US, and Eurozone will give us an update on how much businesses have suffered, while the minutes of the latest Fed meeting might reaffirm the central bank’s willingness to do even more, even as Chairman Powell hints that Congress should take the lead. Overall though, the most important variables for investors may be how quickly new virus cases increase now that economies are partially re-opening, and [..]

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Japan set to enter recession but hope for rebound as state of emergency lifted – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 15, 2020 at 12:34 pm GMT

GDP numbers out of Japan will be headlining the start of the trading week as first quarter growth estimates are published on Monday local time (Sunday, 23:50 GMT). The world’s third largest economy is expected to have contracted for the second quarter in a row, meaning it has entered a technical recession even though Japan has opted against a strict lockdown. But Japan’s economic woes began before the outbreak of the coronavirus and this latest crisis only adds to the [..]

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US retail sales could be the worst ever, but dollar may not react – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 14, 2020 at 9:11 am GMT

Millions of Americans have been applying for unemployment benefits the past two months as the business pressure stemming from the Covid-19 crisis had led to massive layoffs, increasing concerns about how deep consumption, which accounts for two thirds of the US economy, could crash at some point this year. US retail sales due on Friday at 12:30 GMT are expected to reinforce those worries, reflecting the steepest monthly decline in spending. However, the data may not necessarily expose the dollar [..]

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Aussie jobless rate could hit 2-decade high as government’s wage bill skyrockets – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 13, 2020 at 1:43 pm GMT

Australia is among the few fortunate countries that can claim success in quickly containing the spread of the coronavirus. But on Thursday, the latest employment report, due at 1:30 GMT, will reveal what the cost of that success was on the labour market. The number of job seekers is expected to have soared in April. But with the country’s lockdown being slowly relaxed, the primary concern for aussie traders now is how fast the recovery will be. Unemployment to jump [..]

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Germany to shrink the most since financial crisis as the legal battle continues – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 12, 2020 at 2:14 pm GMT

Germany will publish its preliminary GDP growth readings for the first quarter on Friday at 06:00 GMT. Although the Eurozone’s initial estimates have already revealed a 3.8% contraction for the aforementioned period, markets could still pay some attention to the German numbers as a concerning report out of the largest EU economy could calm Berlin’s skeptical response to the EU’s coronavirus stimulus policies that are so desperately needed by the most-infected member states. Political diversity is the main headwind in [..]

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UK economy set for big contraction as Johnson’s lockdown policy descends into chaos – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 12, 2020 at 10:28 am GMT

It will be the UK’s turn next to post dire economic output figures as the coronavirus leaves no country spared. First quarter GDP estimates are due on Wednesday (06:00 GMT) and they will likely only be a taste of what to expect in the second quarter. With Britain resisting the urge to relax social distancing measures too significantly, the economic costs of containing the virus outbreak are mounting, clouding the outlook for the pound. Q1 GDP drop just the beginning [..]

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RBNZ: Opening the QE floodgates wider – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 11, 2020 at 2:59 pm GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will wrap up its policy meeting at 02:00 GMT Wednesday, and recent developments suggest that more stimulus is needed. A rate cut is probably off the cards for now, so the central bank is more likely to expand its QE program instead. As for the kiwi, its reaction may depend mainly on how open policymakers appear about cutting rates again in the future. In this sense, the risks surrounding the currency seem asymmetric and [..]

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Week Ahead – RBNZ may increase QE; Aussie, UK and US data to deepen that sinking feeling

Posted on May 8, 2020 at 9:48 am GMT

There can be no hiding from the awful economic data that is now pouring in from all angles as we move well into the second quarter. Australian jobs, UK Q1 GDP, and US retail sales and inflation numbers will be the next key releases to showcase the virus turmoil. But amid growing optimism about the pandemic easing, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely err on the side of caution at its policy meeting, posing a downside risk for [..]

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