Forex Previews

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Fed meeting: No fireworks, focus on the ‘dots’ – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 10, 2019 at 2:32 pm GMT

The Fed will announce its policy decision on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. Having slashed rates at its last three meetings, no action is expected this time, so the dollar will take its cue from the signals about future cuts and specifically, from the updated ‘dot plot’. With markets still pricing in a full rate cut by November 2020, a dot plot that shows an unchanged Federal funds rate next year could come as a ‘hawkish’ surprise and by extension, lift [..]

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Week ahead – Fed and ECB meetings to serve as appetizers for UK election

Posted on December 6, 2019 at 2:04 pm GMT

The main event will be the UK general election on Thursday, which could decide what form Brexit takes and shape the pound’s fortunes for months. Central bank meetings will serve as a prelude. The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged, and may reinforce the message that it will remain on hold for a while. The ECB will hold its first gathering under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, but is unlikely to provide any fireworks. Instead, trade news could dominate, [..]

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Nonfarm payrolls: An asymmetric risk for the dollar? – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 4, 2019 at 1:16 pm GMT

The latest US employment data will hit the markets at 13:30 GMT on Friday, with forecasts pointing to yet another solid report. Markets aren’t pricing in much chance of a Fed rate cut in the coming months, so any disappointment in these data could trigger a significant negative reaction in the dollar, whereas a positive surprise may not lift the currency too much. Having said that, the overall outlook surrounding the greenback still seems positive. Still the only game in [..]

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Bank of Canada likely to postpone a rate cut on Wednesday – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 3, 2019 at 4:43 pm GMT

The trade environment is not friendly for the Canadian economy and therefore for the loonie at the moment but the Bank of Canada will likely decide to stand pat on interest rates when it meets on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT as some encouraging signs from the domestic economy allow the Bank to postpone the decision for now. November’s employment report could come to justify any rate cut delay on Friday at 13:30 GMT. It’s not time for a rate cut [..]

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RBA meeting and GDP data up next, as aussie licks its wounds – Forex News Preview

Posted on December 2, 2019 at 1:27 pm GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will complete its latest meeting at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, and markets expect no action this time. The aussie’s reaction will therefore depend on the signals for future rate cuts. Judging by the deterioration in recent data, policymakers are likely to strengthen their easing bias, which could exacerbate the currency’s losses. GDP data for Q3 and retail sales for October will follow on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, at 00:30 GMT. Dark clouds The clouds [..]

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Week Ahead – US jobs report could further bolster dollar; RBA and BoC meetings eyed

Posted on November 29, 2019 at 12:13 pm GMT

Central bank meetings and the US jobs report will kick off the final month of 2019 next week, energising the markets as many traders return from the Thanksgiving break in the United States. The nonfarm payrolls report will of course be the main highlight as a positive print there could further add to the improving picture for the US economy, fuelling the dollar. But the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs will also be key in directing the greenback in the [..]

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Canadian GDP data: Another risk for the loonie? – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 28, 2019 at 11:37 am GMT

Third-quarter GDP numbers out of Canada will hit the markets on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Forecasts point to a notable slowdown, but that would still be in line with the Bank of Canada’s (BoC’s) latest forecasts. As for the loonie, the risks continue to appear asymmetric. Market pricing for BoC rate cuts remains muted, even though the Bank itself stated that the bar for an ‘insurance cut’ is low. Hence, any disappointing piece of news could send the loonie plunging, [..]

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Eurozone flash inflation unlikely to change outlook for ECB policy – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 28, 2019 at 7:47 am GMT

The flash estimates of November inflation are due out of the Eurozone on Friday at 10:00 GMT and could point to the first uptick in the headline reading in five months. However, with the European Central Bank not expected to ease again anytime soon, the data isn’t anticipated to cause much of a reaction in the markets, though it may add to the euro’s downside if there is no improvement in the near-term inflation picture. Eurozone price pressures still elusive [..]

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Japanese retail sales to take a tumble in October as sales tax hiked again – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 27, 2019 at 9:39 am GMT

Japan raised the national sales tax from 8% to 10% on October 1 – the first increase since 2014 – and early indications are that consumption has taken a hit from the higher prices. This puts the spotlight on the October retail sales numbers that are due out of Japan on Thursday (Wednesday, 23:50 GMT), as a bigger-than-expected fall in spending would pile pressure on the Bank of Japan to increase monetary stimulus. Big drop expected in retail sales When [..]

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Australian capex figures in scope as trade doubts return – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 26, 2019 at 2:24 pm GMT

The aussie has continued to struggle, as doubts about a US-China trade deal resurfaced and the US dollar staged a comeback. The nation’s capital expenditure data for Q3 – due at 00:30 GMT on Thursday – may shed some light on whether the RBA will cut rates again, but the biggest driver for the aussie will be what happens next in the unstable trade war. Overall, the risks surrounding the currency appear asymmetric, with a ‘phase one’ deal bringing only [..]

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