The Democratic primary race, which will decide who will square off against President Trump at the November presidential election, has kicked off. The field of candidates remains crowded and the outcome uncertain, though national polls increasingly suggest that Senator Bernie Sanders could emerge as the winner. Markets have been complacent so far, assuming that a Sanders surge might boost Trump’s re-election chances by dividing the Democrats. Yet, if Sanders continues to gain momentum, then US stocks – especially the healthcare [..]
The deadly virus theme that has plagued global markets, devastating commodity prices and risk-sensitive currencies, seems to be calming down. The rate of infections appears to be levelling off, and Chinese media suggest scientists found a drug that effectively treats patients. If confirmed, that could ignite a fresh wave of risk-taking, helping the commodity-linked Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars to rally in relief, as safe-havens like the yen come under selling pressure. Is it a short-term thing? Evaluating the [..]
US stocks had a spectacular rally in 2019 with little volatility despite trade tensions, monetary easing and geopolitical conflicts, with the S&P 500 stock index adding a whopping 27% to its value during the year to trade at fresh uncharted waters. As the overstretched increase and the unstoppable print of record highs raise concerns that a cliff edge may be around the corner, there are reasons to believe that 2020 may be another decent year or at least not a [..]
Gold has been on a tear lately, reaching heights not scaled since 2013 to temporarily breach the $1600 an ounce level. However, with risk appetite also riding high on the back of easing trade frictions, and US and Iranian tensions appearing to have been defused for now, what is keeping the popular safe haven at such elevated levels and can the rally be sustained in 2020? Trade war and central bank easing have been positive for gold The price [..]
While 2019 was a turbulent year to be sure, every asset class still managed to end in the green, mainly thanks to central bank stimulus. In the FX space, the winners were the Canadian dollar and British pound, the US dollar was almost flat, while the euro underperformed. Looking into 2020, many risks still hang over the euro as the Eurozone is hardly growing, and while many strategists are calling for the dollar’s demise, that seems unlikely unless the Fed [..]
The White House is set to announce whether it will postpone the next round of tariffs on China, with President Trump tweeting moments ago that a phase one deal is “very close”. Even if this deal isn’t reached by Sunday, when the new tariffs are set to kick in, Trump is still likely to postpone them in order to keep the negotiations going. It seems very unlikely at this stage that he would pull the trigger on the new tariffs, [..]
OPEC, Russia and other major oil producers will meet in Vienna on December 5-6 to decide what production quotas to set as the current arrangement to cap output is set to expire in March 2020. The club’s largest producer, Saudi Arabia, is pushing for deeper cuts. However, its key strategic partner – Russia – is unlikely to agree to anything more than an extension of existing limits. But as oil prices aim to finish the year more than 20% higher, [..]
On December 12, Britons will head to the polls to elect their new government, in what promises to be one of the most crucial elections in recent history. The result could decide what form Brexit takes, whether there’s a second referendum, and how much fiscal stimulus will be injected into an economy paralyzed by uncertainty. As for the pound, a clear Conservative majority would likely propel the currency higher, but even in that case, any rally may not be sustained [..]
The trade conflict between Washington and Beijing took a breather lately, after the two camps agreed on some small issues and reached a de-facto truce. Even if this small agreement is finalized in November though, a ‘big’ deal wouldn’t be any closer as neither side is ready to compromise on the real issues. For that to change, a US recession might need to come on the horizon, making Trump soften his stance to boost the economy before the 2020 election. [..]
It will be a significant day in the history of the Eurozone on October 31 when Mario Draghi – widely viewed as the man who saved the euro – will step down as President of the European Central Bank. He will be replaced by former IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, making her not only the first woman to head the ECB but also the first time that the Bank will be led by someone who is a former lawyer and [..]
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