The White House is set to announce whether it will postpone the next round of tariffs on China, with President Trump tweeting moments ago that a phase one deal is “very close”. Even if this deal isn’t reached by Sunday, when the new tariffs are set to kick in, Trump is still likely to postpone them in order to keep the negotiations going. It seems very unlikely at this stage that he would pull the trigger on the new tariffs, [..]
OPEC, Russia and other major oil producers will meet in Vienna on December 5-6 to decide what production quotas to set as the current arrangement to cap output is set to expire in March 2020. The club’s largest producer, Saudi Arabia, is pushing for deeper cuts. However, its key strategic partner – Russia – is unlikely to agree to anything more than an extension of existing limits. But as oil prices aim to finish the year more than 20% higher, [..]
On December 12, Britons will head to the polls to elect their new government, in what promises to be one of the most crucial elections in recent history. The result could decide what form Brexit takes, whether there’s a second referendum, and how much fiscal stimulus will be injected into an economy paralyzed by uncertainty. As for the pound, a clear Conservative majority would likely propel the currency higher, but even in that case, any rally may not be sustained [..]
The trade conflict between Washington and Beijing took a breather lately, after the two camps agreed on some small issues and reached a de-facto truce. Even if this small agreement is finalized in November though, a ‘big’ deal wouldn’t be any closer as neither side is ready to compromise on the real issues. For that to change, a US recession might need to come on the horizon, making Trump soften his stance to boost the economy before the 2020 election. [..]
It will be a significant day in the history of the Eurozone on October 31 when Mario Draghi – widely viewed as the man who saved the euro – will step down as President of the European Central Bank. He will be replaced by former IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, making her not only the first woman to head the ECB but also the first time that the Bank will be led by someone who is a former lawyer and [..]
Markets have become more optimistic on Brexit, after the UK and Irish leaders said they see a ‘pathway’ to a deal. Yet, if Boris truly watered down his stance enough to make a deal possible, he will likely lose the support of his hardline Brexiteers, so any accord may be rejected by Parliament. Hence, another Brexit extension that is followed by an election still seem inevitable. Since that could make both a future deal and a second referendum more likely, [..]
Facebook’s plans of launching its own cryptocurrency at some point next year raised the alarm in the central bank community, which already faces issues of meeting its objectives. However, what looks to be just an idea now, could turn into a competitive game and a pivot point to the means of exchange if regulators pull the trigger. What is Libra? Since the unanimous release of the famous Bitcoin in 2009, there has been little progress in making cryptocurrencies well-recognized and acceptable means of [..]
The highest court in the United Kingdom has landed a fresh blow for Prime Minister Boris Johnson after it ruled that the government’s decision to suspend Parliament was unlawful. The surprise ruling cut Johnson’s trip to New York short where he was hoping to meet his EU counterparts on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly to speed up progress in the Brexit negotiations. But following the Supreme Court’s decision, it’s unclear whether Johnson can stay on as prime [..]
Commodity-driven currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars are enjoying a bit of a reprieve from an extended sell-off as rekindled hopes of a US-China trade deal and increased stimulus around the world have energized the struggling currencies. But despite early indications that the upcoming trade talks may actually produce substantive progress, the range of factors weighing on the aussie, kiwi and loonie means more downside is likely to come. The ongoing trade war has dented the [..]
Matteo Salvini, the right-wing League Deputy Prime Minister, fired up a political crisis in Italy after pulling support for the coalition government earlier this month, forcing the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to resign and the marriage with the leftist Five Star Movement (M5S) to break down. Starting consultation with the main political parties, President Sergio Matarella will push efforts to form a new alliance and avoid snap elections before the 2020 budget discussions with the EU start. The plan, however, [..]
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