Special Reports

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US election special: A Trump comeback? – Special Report

Posted on October 28, 2020 at 3:51 pm GMT

As the US presidential race enters its final stretch, markets are laser-focused on the outcome, with the correlation between the stock market and opinion polls shooting up lately. The race has tightened substantially, with Trump overtaking Biden in the crucial state of Florida, so a sweeping Democratic victory that delivers king-sized stimulus packages is no longer quite as likely. Below we take a deeper dive into the various scenarios, how likely each is, and how markets might respond. Trump down, [..]

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Brexit endgame: who will blink first as talks enter final phase? – Special Report

Posted on October 9, 2020 at 12:06 pm GMT

It’s Brexit season again and amidst the blitz of coronavirus and US election headlines, Brexit is the other topic that’s prominent in news feeds at the moment as new deadlines approach. But deadlines have come and gone before, and each time people hoped Brexit is done and dusted. However, this time, it really is the final battle round and if there is no deal in the coming weeks, Britain will default to trading with the European Union on WTO terms [..]

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Stimulus deal: Is it dead or is Trump bluffing? – Special Report

Posted on October 7, 2020 at 3:22 pm GMT

The US president threw another monkey wrench into global markets this week, when he halted the negotiations for a new stimulus package until after the election. Stocks fell while the dollar jumped, but the overall market reaction was rather small and soon turned around. This suggests either that investors believe Trump is bluffing, or that this will cost him so much politically that it increases the chances of a ‘Democratic sweep’ and hence of much greater stimulus after the election. [..]

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US election: The good, the bad, and the ugly for markets – Special Report

Posted on September 30, 2020 at 2:12 pm GMT

With almost one month to go until the presidential election, investors are increasingly focused on how the outcome will impact financial markets. The short answer is that there is no automatic rule for how the dollar and equity markets will react to a Trump or Biden win – it all depends on whether the victor will also have full control of Congress or not. This piece will examine how markets might respond to a Democratic sweep, a Republican one, a [..]

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Euro loses its shine as second wave grips Europe; can the rally be restored? – Special Report

Posted on September 29, 2020 at 2:30 pm GMT

It wasn’t so long ago when everything was looking up for the Eurozone economy and the single currency couldn’t put a step wrong. After being ravaged in the spring by soaring deaths from COVID-19 and an economically bruising lockdown, Europe had started to get its house in order by late May. Virus cases were coming down, businesses were allowed to reopen, and European leaders demonstrated a rare show of unity when they agreed on a historic virus relief fund. But [..]

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Is the stock market in a bubble? – Special Report

Posted on September 18, 2020 at 1:16 pm GMT

The US stock market has staged a meteoric comeback, raising concerns about whether we are experiencing an asset bubble in the middle of a recession. While there is clearly a sharp disconnect between markets and economic reality, there are good reasons why. In short, central banks have killed bonds, and stocks are the only game in town. Even if this is a bubble, it could keep going for a long time in a world where the virus may be defeated [..]

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Are we chasing inflation ghosts? – Special Report

Posted on September 11, 2020 at 1:00 pm GMT

The Fed said last month that it will allow inflation to run above its 2% objective for some time without hiking rates until average inflation hits that level. While the wording of this new strategy is seen as a move to convince markets that monetary policy will remain accommodative for longer, it has at the same time raised questions about if, how, and when prices will run hot. Perhaps, influencing expectations was the Fed’s goal in the first place. Why [..]

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Ghost of Brexit returns to haunt sterling – Special Report

Posted on September 8, 2020 at 2:00 pm GMT

The British pound came under fire this week, after the UK threatened to undermine the divorce deal it has already signed with the EU and walk away from the trade negotiations altogether if no agreement is reached by mid-October. While this ultimatum is probably just a hardball negotiating tactic, it still sets the stage for a painful correction in sterling over the coming weeks as political uncertainty intensifies. Ultimately though, a last-minute deal is the most likely outcome. Power play [..]

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US elections: A simple guide and market implications – Special Report

Posted on September 4, 2020 at 1:13 pm GMT

The 3rd of November is the day that American citizens will decide who will lead their country for the next four years. Opinion polls suggest Biden will win, but Trump is quickly closing that polling gap in key battleground states and betting markets imply that the race is too close to call. In this piece, we examine how the complex US voting system works, what makes it different from other countries, and how markets might react ahead and after the [..]

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Euro rally stalls: just a pause or is a major correction in sight? – Special Report

Posted on August 18, 2020 at 10:54 am GMT

After getting whipsawed and then clobbered at the height of the virus fallout in March, the euro is fast becoming one of the strongest performing currencies of 2020. Europe’s better handling of the coronavirus outbreak – at least when compared to America – and a big rescue package that is substantially made up of grants, have helped turn the euro’s fortunes around. But as the incredible rally pauses for breath, are investors having second thoughts about the Eurozone outlook amid [..]

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