The Turkish lira fell to a new record low this week, despite the nation’s central bank burning through its FX reserves in recent months to keep it from crashing. Inflation is still in the double digits, the current account deficit is exploding, and policymakers are pumping the economy with cheap credit again – which is a classic recipe for currency depreciation. Unless interest rates are raised or capital controls are introduced, more pain is likely in store for the battered [..]
The British pound registered sizeable gains in July, soaring by 6.4% against the US dollar as the world was facing its first spike in infection cases since re-opening plans took effect across the globe. Its sudden impressive performance made markets wonder whether they should adopt a sell-the-rally approach or a buy-the-dip mentality in the year ahead. This report suggests that the currency could gain fresh ground in the short-term, though Brexit jitters could challenge the market in the fourth quarter. [..]
The world’s reserve currency took a beating lately, as the resurgence of infections in the US painted a darker outlook for the nation’s economic recovery and sparked expectations for more action by the Fed. But FX is a two-way game, and the dollar’s downfall wouldn’t have been so sharp without better news out of Europe bolstering the euro. Is this just the beginning of a larger rally in euro/dollar that is predicated on Europe outperforming the US? It seems so, [..]
Gold prices keep rising, powered by a trifecta of uncertainty among investors, runaway government spending, and rock bottom interest rates for years to come. Even though the metal has already come a long way, there’s not much to stop it from grinding even higher to new record highs. Any more stimulus from the Fed for instance, like an introduction of yield curve control, could sink the dollar and turbocharge bullion. The main downside risk is a successful virus vaccine. Central [..]
The resurgence in coronavirus cases appears to have put a pause on the relentless risk rally that has propelled global stocks to recoup almost 80% of the March crash. But as stocks drift sideways while investors re-evaluate the prospect of a V-shaped recovery, the bulls still seem to have the upper hand. A resumption of the uptrend looks like a stronger possibility than a downside correction judging by the market sentiment and technical indicators. However, the markets’ two best barometers [..]
While the world is nervous about the Covid-19 second wave, the British pound has another reason to worry about its recovery: the Brexit saga. Six months after its departure from the European Union, the UK has just started to negotiate the terms of a trade deal with the bloc. And while the blame for the slow progress could be largely placed on the social distancing orders, the latest unfruitful round of talks suggests that solidifying an agreement is extremely difficult [..]
The British pound has become very sensitive to changes in risk sentiment lately, with Cable transforming into a ‘risk on’ – ‘risk off’ pair whose fortunes are connected more to stock market performance than UK fundamentals. As such, a better proxy for Brexit developments in this new era may be euro/sterling. Overall, downside risks seem to outweigh upside ones for the pound right now, especially given the resurgence of infections globally and intensifying Brexit uncertainty, though a powerful rebound later [..]
Looking at how risk assets have been performing over the past three months, it’s hard to tell there’s a global pandemic going on. To put it into more context, if someone had been living on a desert island during this time, they would be forgiven for thinking that the world is in the midst of an economic boom when glancing at stock markets. But although there’s been no shortage of crisis response measures since the coronavirus outbreak erupted, how rational [..]
During market stress periods, safe-haven gold tends to generate strong returns, outperforming other alternative means of investment and hence moving rapidly in traders’ favor as a store of wealth. This year thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, the precious metal printed new multi-year highs capitalizing more than 12% year-to-date, while compared to the same period last year it managed to earn a whopping 29% annual increase. Markets are now wondering whether gold could look more ‘golden’ in the post-lockdown period, and [..]
Few would argue that 2020 has been a good year for oil after the market turmoil sparked by the coronavirus crisis sent WTI prices crashing into negative territory for the first time in the US benchmark’s history. But just as the unexplainable recovery of global equities, oil is looking bullish once again, at least in the medium-term timeframe. The encouraging signs of rebounding economic activity as businesses emerge from the virus shutdowns bode well for oil and other commodities. But [..]
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