Special Reports

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Special Report – US government shutdown impact, and the prospect for more

Posted on January 30, 2019 at 4:15 pm GMT

The US government shutdown has ended, for the next two weeks at least, leaving a trail of delayed economic data and lost economic output in its wake. Unless Republicans and Democrats can reach a compromise soon, the government will likely shut down again, or President Trump could declare a national emergency. Overall, the longer and the more frequent shutdowns become, the more political uncertainty rises – at a time when trade uncertainty is already elevated. The impact of the partial [..]

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Special Report – As the Brexit deadlock lingers, what’s behind the pound’s rally?

Posted on January 24, 2019 at 11:59 am GMT

After Theresa May’s Brexit deal suffered the biggest parliamentary defeat in history for a sitting government, few would have thought the pound’s response to the latest setback for the prime minister would have been to head higher. However, as British MPs grow increasingly determined to take control of the Brexit process, investors are becoming convinced that there is no majority will in Parliament to allow the country to leave the European Union without a deal. The pound hit a new [..]

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Commodities outlook 2019: Will precious metals shine?

Posted on January 14, 2019 at 2:13 pm GMT

The commodities complex had a particularly volatile run in 2018, with flaring trade tensions, mounting concerns around slowing global growth, and a stronger US dollar being behind the abysmal performance of most commodities. In 2019, the outlook will hinge mainly on how the trade dispute plays out, with precious metals likely to perform well in case global risks remain pronounced, and the dollar soft. Plethora of market risks could keep gold in fashion Admittedly, gold had a rocky year in [..]

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Equities year ahead 2019: Grim outlook weighs on earnings but is the gloom justified?

Posted on January 3, 2019 at 12:22 pm GMT

After a year that saw the S&P 500’s bull run become the longest in history and then abruptly end, giving way to a steep correction, investors are increasingly nervous that 2019 may be an even more challenging period as the US economic cycle appears to be nearing its final stages. Global central banks are withdrawing stimulus at a time when growth is moderating to more normal levels and geopolitical risks linger. Hence, volatility is set to remain elevated, and while [..]

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FX year ahead 2019: End of dollar dominance?

Posted on December 24, 2018 at 12:22 pm GMT

As 2018 draws to a close, the heavily sold currencies are set to end the year off their lows, while the US dollar – one of the biggest winners of 2018 – appears on track to start 2019 on a negative footing. While it’s too early to predict a new downtrend for the dollar, expectations that US interest rates are nearing their cycle peak could provide the greenback’s peers some much-needed relief. Yet, several risks remain – ranging from the [..]

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Special Report – As UK Parliament descends into chaos, pound finds support from rising chances of no Brexit

Posted on December 6, 2018 at 2:08 pm GMT

The completion of the Withdrawal Agreement between UK and EU negotiators was meant to signal the end of months of uncertainty, quell fears of a no-deal Brexit, and set the groundwork for talks on future relations. However, Prime Minister Theresa May’s hard-fought deal has come under heavy attack from all sides of the political spectrum in the UK, with Westminster descending into chaos amid a fractious parliament. The endless Brexit headlines have generated a lot of choppy trading for the [..]

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Strategy update: The trade ‘truce’, the Fed’s possible pause and May’s Brexit woes

Posted on December 5, 2018 at 3:06 pm GMT

Markets unconvinced by Trump-Xi trade rapprochement The Fed could slow rate hikes Market braces for Brexit turbulence as May struggles to convince Parliament Markets unconvinced by Trump-Xi trade rapprochement A major theme for global markets and the global economy is the uncertainty caused by the frictions between the United States and China. It was therefore an initially positive piece of news that the two countries would restart a new round of negotiations that would last for 90 days, that China would pledge to import [..]

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Special Report – More euro underperformance in store by year-end?

Posted on November 13, 2018 at 3:13 pm GMT

Mostly euro-friendly election outcomes, at least in the eyes of investors, and economic data pointing to a strong pickup in economic activity were the factors that rendered the euro the best performing major currency in 2017. Specifically, the common currency advanced by 14.1% versus its US counterpart. This compares to the -6.1% so far in 2018, partially owed to the absence of the aforementioned euro-supportive drivers, something that also paves the way for further underperformance during the remainder of the [..]

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Special Report – How the US midterm elections could impact the dollar and equities

Posted on November 2, 2018 at 11:59 am GMT

The US midterm elections next week are widely expected to produce a split Congress. Investors appear somewhat complacent on the outcome, which allows room for notable market reactions in case of a surprise, like one of the parties taking control of both chambers. Below follows an analysis of the possible outcomes, the likelihood attached to each, and the associated implications for the dollar and equities. On Tuesday, November 6, Americans will go to the polls to elect their 116th Congress. [..]

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Special Report – As NAFTA talks enter final stretch, is the loonie set to rally?

Posted on September 13, 2018 at 3:03 pm GMT

The US-Canada trade talks have heated up lately, with a deal by the end of this month looking increasingly more realistic. In such a case, the loonie could surge in relief as the NAFTA risk premium on the currency fades, with broader market risk appetite also receiving a boost. While there may be a few wobbles in the meantime as the US continues playing “hardball”, there is probably too much at stake for either side to let the talks collapse, [..]

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