Technical Analysis – US 100 index holds above May’s lows despite big fat sell-off

The US 100 stock index (cash) was smashed by worrying earnings from US retailers on Wednesday, but the big-fat sell-off was not strong enough to close below 11,874 for the second time this month.

Sellers are expected to dictate the short-term trading in the four-hour chart as the momentum indicators are dipped in the bearish area, though with the Stochastics and the RSI hovering near their oversold levels, an upside correction cannot be ruled out. In other encouraging signals, the red Tenkan-sen line hasn't confirmed a bearish cross with the blue Kijun-sen yet, while the positive intersection between the 20- and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) is intact despite the negative slope in the lines.

Hence, traders will keep a close eye on the 11,874 floor as the market exhibits its seventh straight week of losses. Failure to bounce here may see further weakness towards the 11,310 – 11,510 territory last active during the fourth quarter of 2020. If downside pressures persist, the next stop could be around the 11,000 psychological mark, while a steeper freefall may touch the crucial base of 10,765 from September 2020.

In the positive scenario, where the index sustains the foothold at 11,874, the constraining surface of the Ichimoku cloud currently around 12,050 may immediately deter any improvement towards the 20- and 50-period SMAs at 12,250. Should buyers drive higher, the focus will turn to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 15,265 – 11,689 downleg at 12,535. Yet, the descending trendline drawn from the 15,190 mark might be a more important obstacle at 12,740.

Summarizing, although the tech-led US 100 stock index managed to stay above May’s trough, increasing speculation that selling interest is fading, a drop below 11,874 could pour cold water to that hope.

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