Is the stock market in a bubble? – Special Report

Posted on September 18, 2020 at 1:16 pm GMT

The US stock market has staged a meteoric comeback, raising concerns about whether we are experiencing an asset bubble in the middle of a recession. While there is clearly a sharp disconnect between markets and economic reality, there are good reasons why. In short, central banks have killed bonds, and stocks are the only game in town. Even if this is a bubble, it could keep going for a long time in a world where the virus may be defeated [..]


Daily Market Comment – BoE clips pound’s wings, equities brace for turbulence

Posted on September 18, 2020 at 10:41 am GMT

Sterling capsizes after BoE opens door to negative rates Fed disappointment torments equities, but dollar doesn’t get the memo Market turmoil might continue today amid major option expiries Crude oil stages heroic comeback on supply hopes Bank of England does another policy U-turn The BoE injected another dose of volatility into British assets yesterday after it announced that it is studying the implementation of negative interest rates, just six weeks after it downplayed this policy as ineffective. It seems that [..]


Daily Market Comment – Investors heartbroken after Fed fires a blank, BoE next

Posted on September 17, 2020 at 10:21 am GMT

Fed commits to inflation overshooting regime, but delivers no new measures Dollar grinds higher, stocks in agony as investors expected heavier artillery Yet, this is probably not a game changer in the bigger picture Attention now turns to the Bank of England decision today Fed takes a small step back, markets throw a tantrum It was another eventful FOMC meeting. The Fed officially embraced its new inflation overshoot regime, albeit not unanimously. The vote was 8-2, with Kaplan and Kashkari [..]


Daily Market Comment – Markets hold their breath ahead of Fed decision

Posted on September 16, 2020 at 8:34 am GMT

Spotlight falls on the Fed today: will it deliver new measures to boost inflation? Bank of Japan meets a few hours later, not much is expected Otherwise muted moves across markets as investors await FOMC direction Fed: Justifying the paradigm shift The main event today will be the FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT, which will be followed by the regular press conference by Chairman Powell half an hour later. The Fed is certain to use this meeting as a public [..]


Daily Market Comment – Another dose of vaccine optimism calms market nerves

Posted on September 14, 2020 at 11:44 am GMT

Positive vaccine headlines bolster global risk sentiment Suga set to become Japan’s new leader – general election imminent? Sterling recovers amid calmer market tones, looks to Parliament Vaccine news breathes life back into stocks, dollar sleepy Wall Street hit a rough patch last week, as investors finally paused to assess the utopian valuations in the tech sector. Vanishing hopes for a new relief package out of Washington D.C. and news that some coronavirus vaccines might be delayed because of safety [..]


Daily Market Comment – Wall Street rediscovers gravity ahead of US jobs report

Posted on September 4, 2020 at 1:25 pm GMT

Stock markets tank as investors dump their tech darlings Yet, there is no sense of panic in the market, especially among currencies US jobs report today might decide if this correction still has some mileage in it Risk aversion makes a rare appearance After cruising higher without any significant corrections for three months now, the US equity market finally suffered a meaningful setback on Thursday. The S&P 500 lost 3.5% and the Nasdaq was down 5% as investors dumped tech [..]


US elections: A simple guide and market implications – Special Report

Posted on September 4, 2020 at 1:13 pm GMT

The 3rd of November is the day that American citizens will decide who will lead their country for the next four years. Opinion polls suggest Biden will win, but Trump is quickly closing that polling gap in key battleground states and betting markets imply that the race is too close to call. In this piece, we examine how the complex US voting system works, what makes it different from other countries, and how markets might react ahead and after the [..]


Daily Market Comment – Manufacturing data revive dollar, ECB wary of euro

Posted on September 2, 2020 at 9:08 am GMT

Encouraging ISM data bring dollar back to life, Wall Street sets new records Europe enters deflation, ECB chief economist throws first jab at the euro Today: ADP jobs report and lots of central bank speakers    US manufacturing data give dollar the kiss of life A strong batch of US manufacturing numbers resurrected the dollar from the ranks of the dead and propelled Wall Street to another record high yesterday. The ISM manufacturing index jumped to its highest level in [..]


Daily Market Comment – Sinking dollar lifts all FX boats

Posted on September 1, 2020 at 11:06 am GMT

Dollar breaks down across multiple charts, without a clear trigger Other major currencies climb alongside gold, Nasdaq hits new records Today: European inflation, US manufacturing, and Fed’s Brainard Dollar: The pain train rolls on There is no shortage of volatility in the FX arena. The world’s reserve currency continues to break down, in fear that the Fed’s new regime shift may succeed in driving inflation higher and diminish the greenback’s future purchasing power. The dollar index sunk to a fresh [..]


Daily Market Comment – Dollar gets a second wind after bleak Eurozone PMIs

Posted on August 21, 2020 at 8:49 am GMT

Vaccine news from Pfizer boost sentiment, more records for Nasdaq Dollar can’t find much love amid risk-taking mood But how long can the market ignore Europe’s second wave? Perhaps not long, as the Eurozone’s PMIs provide a reality check Dollar feels the ‘risk on’ blues There’s no love for the US dollar out there. The reserve currency remained on the back foot on Thursday, surrendering some of the gains it posted after the FOMC minutes played down the prospect of [..]

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