Technical Analysis – BTCUSD cools after rally, cautiously negative in very short term

Marios Hadjikyriacos, XM Investment Research Desk

BTCUSD has come off its recent highs, with prices diving to test the 9,600 area, before finding fresh buy orders and rebounding. Yet, the price structure on the 4-hour chart now consists of lower peaks and lower troughs, while the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) has also crossed below the 40-period one, so the outlook seems to have turned cautiously negative in the immediate term.

Short-term momentum oscillators agree, with the RSI still hovering slightly above 50, but pointing lower.

Another wave of declines could meet initial support near the 40-period SMA at 11,375, with a downside break turning the focus to the 20-period one, near 10,850. Even lower, the attention would turn to 9,600.

On the other hand, a recovery in the market may stall around the 12,000 handle, where a bullish violation could open the way for the June 28 peak of 12,350. If buyers overcome that zone too, the next obstacle may be the June 26 top of 13,800.

In short, the picture is somewhat negative in the very short run, but unless prices make a new low below 9,600, the broader outlook still seems positive.