Technical Analysis – Dollar index reactivates 2-year old uptrend in overbought zone


Christina Parthenidou, XM Investment Research Desk

The US dollar index futures cleared the tough ceiling around 99.30 and spiked to a 33-month high of 99.74 on Thursday, re-activating the two-year old upward pattern off 88.13.

If the bulls manage to close decisively above the former resistance level of 99.60 from 2015, the next key obstacle is expected to pop up around 100.60. Since the RSI and the MACD have yet to show signs of weakness, the odds for such a case are currently looking high. If more gains follow above 100.60, traders could search for resistance near 101.25 which is the 161.8% Fibonacci of the 99.30-95.99 downside correction.

Alternatively, if the bullish pressure fades and the price reverses below 99.28, the next battle could happen near 99.00 before all attention shifts to the November inside swing high of 98.46 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA).

In brief, the US dollar index could gain extra ground if the 99.60 obstacle falls apart, with the next peak expected to happen around 100.60.