Technical Analysis – Gold may not expect higher highs in the near-term

Christina Parthenidou, XM Investment Research Desk

Gold remained trapped within a two-month old sideways move after refusing to drop into the Ichimoku cloud last week.

Yet, the fact that the yellow metal is unable to print higher highs above the 1,765 peak favors the bearish side of trading, something also endorsed by the RSI and the MACD which keep trending downwards.

Should the price retreat below 1,718 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), the bears may push harder to exit the neutral zone below the upper surface of the cloud around 1,680. Falling lower, the 1,640 number may try to curb a more aggressive selling towards the 1,590 level, while slightly lower the 200-day SMA could be another important barrier to watch.

On the upside, a close above 1,750 would take the uptrend out of risk, potentially extending the rally towards 1,800, if the 1,765 top proves easy to get through. Then, additional upside corrections could open the way towards the 2011 record highs between 1,880 and 1,920.

Meanwhile, in the medium-term picture, the upward pattern is intact and only a slump below 1,680 could change the outlook to a neutral one.

In brief, gold is looking neutral within the 1,680-1,750 territory in the short-term and only a break above these borders could provide the next direction for the market.