Technical Analysis – USDCAD improves somewhat within trading range

Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

USDCAD recently climbed above all converged simple moving averages (SMAs) and the 1.3594 level, that being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.4047 to 1.3314. The price is currently resting on the upper surface of the mostly horizontal Ichimoku cloud but appears to have lost the fuel to push for the ceiling of the one-month consolidation.

Looking at the short-term oscillators, positive momentum has weakened. The MACD is trading slightly above zero and its red signal line, while the RSI dips in bullish territory. Moreover, the stochastic oscillator appears to be slipping below 80, thus a sideways tone may hold for a while longer.

If the pair drives higher from the upper band of the cloud, initial constrictions may commence at the 50.0% Fibo of 1.3680. Ascending further, the zone from the roof of the range at 1.3715 to the 1.3737 high may attempt to apply the brakes on additional improvements in the pair. Failing to do so, buyers may encounter tough resistance from the 1.3832 peak until the 76.4% Fibo of 1.3874 (previous support-now-resistance section).

Should price sink into the cloud, early sturdy support may develop from the 100-period SMA at the 38.2% Fibo of 1.3594 until the lower bound of the cloud at 1.3569, where the 50- and 200-period SMAs presently reside. Pushing under this region, the 1.3536 low and the floor of the sideways market at 1.3485 (23.6% Fibo) may try to deny negative moves from unfolding. If selling interest intensifies, the focus could shift towards the 1.3356 barrier and the three-month low of 1.3314.

Summarizing, USDCAD is attempting to develop a neutral-to-bullish bias in the short-term timeframe and a break above 1.3874 may strengthen this view.