Technical Analysis – USDCAD optimistic after correction from 50-month peak


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

USDCAD continues to find support from the mid-Bollinger band located at 1.4155, after a retracement from the multi-year top of 1.4667. Though price action has somewhat slowed, assisting this positive picture are the ascending simple moving averages (SMAs) and their intact bullish mode.

Additionally, the short-term oscillators hold a positive bearing. The MACD, despite falling below its red trigger line, is still deep in the positive zone, while the RSI remained in the bullish section, hovering above the 50 level. Further boosting an appreciation in price are the bullish stochastics, which have room to move.

If buyers manage to sustain the push off the mid-Bollinger band, initial resistance could come from the 1.4262 level – which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 1.2951 to 1.4667 – and the nearby swing highs of 1.4300 and 1.4348 overhead. Overcoming these barriers, the pair may rally towards the 1.4558 hurdle. Conquering this could open the door for a revisit of the 50-month top of 1.4667 and the January resistance of 1.4689 from back in 2016.

Otherwise, steering below 1.4155, initial support could come from the 1.4080 low ahead of the 38.2% Fibo of 1.4012 and the latest trough of 1.3921. Dropping past the important 1.3921 barrier, the price may come to rest at the 50.0% Fibo of 1.3810, which if broken, could see the key support of 1.3724 halt bears’ efforts for further declines.

Overall, with the positive signals still supporting the improving sentiment, the near-term bias is neutral-to-bullish above 1.3921. Moreover, the short-term outlook is bullish above the 1.3724 trough.