Technical Analysis – USDCAD ranges, with upside efforts curbed by 200-MA


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

USDCAD appears to have glided into a sideways market with a floor at 1.2624 and a ceiling at 1.2834. The price is currently standing on the slight upturn in the 50-period simple moving average (SMA), trying to gain some footing. Nevertheless, from the beginning of the year, the picture is fairly neutral, something also demonstrated in the directionless Ichimoku lines.

The dictating 100- and 200-period SMAs are defending the broader negative picture, while the short-term oscillators and the subsided negative tempo of the 50-period SMA are proposing an extension of the horizontal pattern. The MACD remains in positive territory but below its red trigger line, while the RSI is hovering around the 50 threshold. Yet, the stochastic oscillator has turned bullish, suggesting forthcoming price advances.

If buyers push off the 50-period SMA at 1.2721, early heavy resistance could arise from the 100- and 200-period SMAs at 1.2743 and 1.2777 respectively. Should the capping 200-period SMA break down, the neighbouring 1.2800 hurdle and the roof of the sideways channel at 1.2834 could impede further improvements towards the 1.2875 high.

On the flipside, sellers face immediate support from the 50-period SMA at 1.2724 and the adjacent low of 1.2702. Sinking from here, the pair may put pressure on the near 33-month low of 1.2624, which happens to be the floor of the range. Penetrating the bottom may boost the bearish bearing, sending the price towards the 1.2585 and 1.2547 lows, before targeting the April 2018 low of 1.2526.

Concluding, a break either above 1.2834 or below 1.2624 could reveal the next price direction. Yet, a shift above 1.2958 may breathe some confidence back into the pair.