Technical Analysis – USDCAD retests upper boundary of descending channel

Melina Deltas, XM Investment Research Desk

USDCAD has been developing within a descending movement since March 19 and is currently coupled within the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs). After the rebound on the eight-month low of 1.2993, the price is trying to overcome the 1.3250 resistance. The technical indicators seem to be mixed as the MACD surpassed the trigger line in the negative territory, while the RSI is ticking south below 50.

In the positive scenario, the pair could improve above the 40-day SMA, which overlaps with the 1.3250 resistance to challenge the lower surface of the Ichimoku cloud at 1.3385. The 1.3460 area and the 200-day SMA at 1.3537 remain the big highlight as the price would then break the channel to the upside.

A pull back, though, may meet support around the eight-month low of 1.2993, while slightly lower the bears could try to overcome the 1.2950 support. Should the price retreat under the latter level too, the September 2018 low at 1.2780 could come under speculation.

In brief, USDCAD is expected to pause the north-run in the very short-term, while in the medium-term, buying interest could step up if the market confirms a daily close above the 200-day SMA at 1.3537.