Technical Analysis – USDTRY at fresh 6-month high; positive outlook to stay in place


Christina Parthenidou, XM Investment Research Desk

USDTRY has been rising steadily since mid-January, surpassing its previous peak at 5.986 to print a fresh 6-month high slightly above the 6.00 mark on Friday.

The upward direction in the MACD and the positive slope in the RSI, which keeps strengthening above its 70 overbought mark flag a bullish short-term bias. Hence, the focus will likely stay on the upside, with the 6.148 peak from May 23 probably coming next under the spotlight. If the bullish action continues above the latter, the door would open for the 6.198 resistance level and then for the 6.243 top.

Alternatively, a reversal to the downside could test the 6.072 level which previously acted as resistance. if this proves easy to clear, a tougher obstacle could come between the previous high of 5.986 and the steeper ascending short-term trendline drawn from 5.682. A closure below the trendline could find a barrier near the 61.8% Fibonacci of 5.938 of the 6.243-5.446 downfall and the flatter ascending trendline stretched from the 5.446 bottom.

In the medium-term picture, the positive outlook reflected by the higher highs and higher lows since early August could stay intact as long as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) continues to distance itself above the 200-day SMA.

Summarizing, USDTRY is expected to hold bullish in the short and medium-term picture.