Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures poise for another bearish session; completing descending triangle

Christina Parthenidou, XM Investment Research Desk

WTI oil futures for May delivery have been in quite a sideways trade since the plunge to an 18-year low of 20.50 last week on the four-hour chart.

While a neutral trading is better than a negative one, in this case the market seems to be developing within an almost fulfilled bearish descending triangle that usually gets dissolved on the downside. In other words, technically, another sell-off seems to be a more likely outcome in the near future, as the bearish RSI and the MACD currently suggest.

Breaking the base around 22.00 and closing below the 20.50 trough, the bears could drive towards the 1990s barriers. The 17.00 mark could come first into view and ahead of the 13.00 number. Lower, the 11.00-10.00 zone could be a tougher obstacle to overcome.

In the positive scenario where the price rebounds above the triangle, beating the 25.12 resistance too, more gains could follow towards the swing high of 28.45. The 23.6% Fibonacci of the 54.62-20.50 down leg and the upper surface of the Ichimoku cloud happen to be in the neighborhood. Another step higher could add more fuel to the rally, pushing the price towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of 33.53 and then up to the 50% Fibonacci of 37.56.

Summarizing, WTI oil futures seem to be completing a bearish descending triangle on the four-hour chart, warning that the downtrend could soon search for new lows.