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UK GDP growth likely bounced back in Q3 but more weakness ahead – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 8, 2019 at 1:03 pm GMT

The coming week will be a data-heavy one for the United Kingdom and kicking things off on Monday will be third quarter GDP numbers along with the monthly breakdown of economic output, as well as trade figures for September. The data, due at 0930 GMT, are expected to point to a stagnant economy as Brexit and trade uncertainty take a toll. UK to avoid technical recession The British economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter, as production fell back [..]

China’s trade data may call for a phase one deal – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 7, 2019 at 11:02 am GMT

China is scheduled to report its trade statistics early on Friday at a time when Washington and Beijing are seeking to sign the so-called phase one deal possibly early next month. The results, however, followed by a not-so encouraging US trade report are expected to show that there is no winner or loser in this trade war, a sign that no side is likely to hold a negotiating advantage when the leaders finally meet. Trade war did not bring the [..]

Canadian employment data: A risk in disguise? – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 6, 2019 at 2:28 pm GMT

The latest jobs numbers out of Canada are due on Friday at 13:30 GMT, and forecasts point to another month of solid employment gains. Even though the labor market has been on an absolute tear this year, the Bank of Canada (BoC) just signaled that it may cut rates anyway as insurance against the trade war. The implication is that a strong report may be unable to lift the loonie much, whereas a disappointing one could send it plunging. Taking [..]

New Zealand jobs data could decide if RBNZ cuts next week – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 5, 2019 at 12:39 pm GMT

The latest employment numbers out of New Zealand will hit the markets late on Tuesday, at 21:45 GMT. This will be among the final data releases ahead of the RBNZ’s meeting next week, where market pricing currently assigns a 55% chance for a rate cut, so it may be crucial for that decision. Assuming no major disappointment in these figures, the risks seem tilted towards the RBNZ holding its fire, which may help the kiwi extend its rebound. Bottoming out? [..]

Will UK services PMI nudge Bank of England closer to abandoning its tightening bias? – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 4, 2019 at 3:06 pm GMT

With Brexit on pause as UK politicians prepare to battle out their differences in a general election, the Bank of England policy meeting and the all-important services PMI will be the main drivers for the resurgent pound this week. The services PMI, due on Tuesday at 0930 GMT, will be monitored to see whether the UK economy is on the mend after a dismal two quarters, while the Bank of England could finally drop its tightening bias when it announces [..]

RBA meeting: Hitting ‘pause’ on rate cuts? – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 4, 2019 at 12:41 pm GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will complete its meeting early on Tuesday, at 03:30 GMT. Having cut rates at its latest gathering, no action is expected this time, so markets will focus on the signals for future easing. Given a string of decent data lately coupled with the US-China ceasefire, the RBA could downplay the likelihood for another cut over the next months – which may help the aussie extend its recent gains. That said, the bigger outlook is [..]

Week Ahead – RBA to hold rates but BoE could signal policy shift; trade and services PMIs in focus

Posted on November 1, 2019 at 11:46 am GMT

As the Fed and the ECB signal they may be done with policy easing for now, the Reserve Bank of Australia may follow suit, but the Bank of England could be a late joiner to the easing club. Apart from the next wave of central bank meetings, monthly trade statistics will come to the fore with China’s figures likely to attract the most attention, while employment numbers out of Canada and New Zealand will also be eyed. Meanwhile, over in [..]

US nonfarm payrolls: More than meets the eye? – Forex News Preview

Posted on October 31, 2019 at 12:59 pm GMT

With the Fed having cut rates again, the focus now turns to the US employment data that are due on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The ISM manufacturing PMI for October will follow at 14:00 GMT. Given some one-off factors, the risks surrounding the dollar from the jobs data seem tilted to the upside, as any disappointment may be viewed as a transitory phenomenon. The broader picture looks positive too, despite the recent pullback. The US economy continues to lose its [..]

Eurozone Q3 GDP growth and inflation to challenge euro’s rebound – Forex News Preview

Posted on October 30, 2019 at 4:16 pm GMT

Just before the second round of quantitative easing (QE) starts on November 1, the Eurozone’s preliminary GDP growth figures for the third quarter and October’s initial inflation estimates will likely show on Thursday at 10:00 GMT that monetary stimulus is much needed as the data are forecast to come in softer. Despite the ECB lowering its deposit rate to -0.5% in September and announcing the start of a new asset purchase program that should boost liquidity in the banking sector [..]

Will the Bank of Japan cut rates or hold its fire? – Forex News Preview

Posted on October 30, 2019 at 12:18 pm GMT

The Bank of Japan will announce its latest policy decision on Thursday, just hours after the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the third time this year. But as pressure grows on the BoJ to join other central banks in increasing its monetary stimulus, doubts are growing about whether or not there will be consensus among policymakers to take any action in October. In the meantime, the yen is enjoying a bit of a reprieve from [..]

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