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ISM PMIs could upset dollar if virus impact confirmed – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 28, 2020 at 2:29 pm GMT

The deterioration in the US preliminary IHS Markit PMI survey in February was partially attributed to the coronavirus outbreak and markets are now turning their attention to the more important ISM PMI indices for release on Tuesday (manufacturing) and Thursday (non-manufacturing) at 15:00 GMT to confirm potential disruptions in US business activities. Should the numbers ratify concerns, especially those for the services sector, the sliding dollar may push for more losses. ISM services PMI may not show contraction after all  The deadly Covid-19 disease is spreading fast [..]

Week Ahead – RBA and BoC meet: no virus stimulus yet; US jobs report also in focus

Posted on February 28, 2020 at 1:54 pm GMT

Central banks in Australia and Canada will hold policy meetings next week – the first since the outbreak of the coronavirus escalated into a global crisis. But with policymakers having limited firepower, they will probably maintain a wait-and-see approach until a clearer picture starts emerging about the impact of the virus, whose spread has multiplied several-fold in the past week. Investors will also be waiting anxiously for the latest nonfarm payrolls report out of the United States as they push [..]

RBA meeting: Cautious language and rate cut hints – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 28, 2020 at 1:32 pm GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will wrap up its policy meeting early on Tuesday, at 03:30 GMT. Markets assign a 20% chance for an immediate rate cut, so if the RBA keeps policy unchanged, the aussie could spike higher on the decision. That being said, policymakers will probably strengthen their easing bias and send clear signals that rates may be cut as soon as April, so any positive reaction might remain short lived and the devastated currency could resume [..]

Canadian Q4 GDP eyed ahead of BoC meeting – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 26, 2020 at 2:57 pm GMT

Canada will report GDP numbers for the fourth quarter on Friday (13:30 GMT) when trade tensions and industrial strikes are expected to have ground growth to a near halt. With economic conditions not likely to have improved in the first quarter, the data will be watched carefully by policymakers at the Bank of Canada, who meet next week. In the meantime, the Canadian dollar has stumbled near 4-month lows versus its US counterpart, weighed by weaker oil prices.   GDP [..]

US core PCE Index may not help the dollar recoup losses – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 26, 2020 at 1:29 pm GMT

The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index will be out on Friday at 13:30 GMT accompanied with personal consumption and income data. The release which regards the month of January is expected to show a slightly stronger inflation for the second consecutive month, but the news will not affect much markets’ increasing expectations of a rate cut, probably giving little support to the dollar that started the week in the negative territory.  Fed may not [..]

Australian Q4 capex to rise but unlikely to arrest aussie’s decline – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 25, 2020 at 1:02 pm GMT

Quarterly data on construction (Wednesday, 0030 GMT) and capital expenditure (Thursday, 0030 GMT) are awaited in Australia this week and should provide some indication as to what to expect from Q4 GDP numbers due next week. It’s likely capital spending will have risen for the first time in a year in the December quarter, but given the new headwinds – the coronavirus outbreak and the bushfires – facing the Australian economy in 2020, the data may not matter much for [..]

Week Ahead – Virus risks to set market tone in muted data week

Posted on February 21, 2020 at 1:46 pm GMT

With not much on the economic calendar to enthuse markets next week, the virus and its impact on economies globally is likely to remain the primary driver of risk sentiment. Still, there are some important indicators worth keeping an eye on. Overall, there’s little to suggest that the dollar’s relentless rally is about to end, as the US economy is much better positioned than its rivals to weather any slowdown in China. That said, the more the dollar climbs, the [..]

Will Eurozone PMIs add fuel to the euro’s carnage? – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 20, 2020 at 10:13 am GMT

Preliminary PMI data out of the Eurozone will hit the markets on Friday at 09:00 GMT. Forecasts point to a mild decline in both the manufacturing and services indices, as concerns around the virus damage in China may have started to infect European business sentiment. As for the devastated euro, it’s difficult to see what can turn its fortunes around outside of a big fiscal spending package, which is not on the horizon. When the levee breaks The past few [..]

UK retail sales and flash PMIs in focus; will post-election bounce speed up or falter? – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 18, 2020 at 3:58 pm GMT

As the UK debates whether to open the fiscal taps, economic data is likely to return to the headlines on Thursday and Friday, with investors hoping to see more signs of a turnaround from the latest retail sales and flash PMI numbers. Retail sales figures for January are due on Thursday at 09:30 GMT, while the preliminary PMIs for February will be released on Friday, also at 09:30 GMT. Talk of a fiscal stimulus, as well as comparatively better data [..]

Fed minutes unlikely to derail dollar’s relentless rally – Forex News Preview

Posted on February 18, 2020 at 2:49 pm GMT

The minutes of the latest Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. Nothing much happened or was said back then, so the minutes are unlikely to contain any major policy signals. Instead, investors might look to the preliminary PMIs for February that are due on Friday for clues on whether virus uncertainty has started to infect America too. As for the dollar, there’s nothing on the horizon to suggest the explosive uptrend is [..]

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