Forex Previews

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Eurozone flash inflation unlikely to change outlook for ECB policy – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 28, 2019 at 7:46 am GMT

The flash estimates of November inflation are due out of the Eurozone on Friday at 10:00 GMT and could point to the first uptick in the headline reading in five months. However, with the European Central Bank not expected to ease again anytime soon, the data isn’t anticipated to cause much of a reaction in the markets, though it may add to the euro’s downside if there is no improvement in the near-term inflation picture. Eurozone price pressures still elusive [..]

Japanese retail sales to take a tumble in October as sales tax hiked again – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 27, 2019 at 9:39 am GMT

Japan raised the national sales tax from 8% to 10% on October 1 – the first increase since 2014 – and early indications are that consumption has taken a hit from the higher prices. This puts the spotlight on the October retail sales numbers that are due out of Japan on Thursday (Wednesday, 23:50 GMT), as a bigger-than-expected fall in spending would pile pressure on the Bank of Japan to increase monetary stimulus. Big drop expected in retail sales When [..]

Australian capex figures in scope as trade doubts return – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 26, 2019 at 2:24 pm GMT

The aussie has continued to struggle, as doubts about a US-China trade deal resurfaced and the US dollar staged a comeback. The nation’s capital expenditure data for Q3 – due at 00:30 GMT on Thursday – may shed some light on whether the RBA will cut rates again, but the biggest driver for the aussie will be what happens next in the unstable trade war. Overall, the risks surrounding the currency appear asymmetric, with a ‘phase one’ deal bringing only [..]

US durable goods, PCE inflation and GDP data eyed as dollar jumps to 1½-week high – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 26, 2019 at 10:46 am GMT

Traders will be bombarded with an avalanche of US economic data on Wednesday before it all goes quiet on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. Hitting the markets first at 13:30 GMT are durable goods orders and the second estimate of Q3 GDP growth, with personal income and spending numbers following soon after at 15:00 GMT, along with the all-important core PCE price index. With the dollar enjoying a bit of a lift from encouraging PMI indicators, more upbeat data could push [..]

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Will New Zealand Q3 retail sales underscore a less dovish RBNZ? – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 25, 2019 at 10:55 am GMT

New Zealand will publish quarterly retail sales figures on Tuesday (Monday, 21:45 GMT). Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s surprise decision to keep monetary policy unchanged at its last meeting, the data will be watched for clues as to whether additional rate cuts are likely in the near term. While the unexpected policy move has buoyed the local dollar, any weakness in the incoming data could hinder the kiwi’s tepid recovery. Q3 retail sales to bounce back After a [..]

Week Ahead – Busy US calendar ahead of Thanksgiving; Q3 data eyed by aussie, kiwi and loonie

Posted on November 22, 2019 at 1:28 pm GMT

The coming week looks set to be unusually busy despite the US having a shorter week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Nevertheless, the flurry of data may fail to generate much excitement. This could leave investors yet again exposed to the constantly changing sentiment on the trade outlook, especially if President Trump makes any references to the ongoing US-China talks in his Thanksgiving message. But in the absence of any fresh headlines on trade, the markets’ focus will mainly fall [..]

Euro area PMIs: It’s a struggle – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 21, 2019 at 1:13 pm GMT

In the euro area, preliminary PMIs for November are due out at 09:00 GMT on Friday. The French and German numbers will be released a few minutes earlier, so any market reaction could begin with those. Forecasts point to an uptick in all figures, but even if those estimates are met, that would still point to stagnant growth. The outlook for the euro therefore remains bleak, not least because Germany avoiding a recession means that no meaningful fiscal stimulus will [..]

Fed minutes: Letting the economy run hot? – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 19, 2019 at 2:15 pm GMT

The next market-moving release for the dollar will be on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT, when the Fed releases the minutes of its latest meeting, where rates were cut again but the central bank signaled that it will pause its easing cycle. Back then, Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may be willing to let the economy ‘run hot’, a confirmation of which in the upcoming minutes may hurt the dollar somewhat. That said, the currency’s broader outlook still seems positive. [..]

Inflation and retail sales to guide loonie this week – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 19, 2019 at 1:41 pm GMT

The BoC chief, Stephen Poloz, left interest rates at 1.75% this month and at the highest among advanced economies, refraining to follow the dove camp that most of its major counterparts joined to countermeasure the negative spillovers from the US-China trade war. While higher rates keep Canadian bond yields relatively more attractive to investors, Canada’s heavy reliance on exports and commodity prices suggests that the economy could easily take a downturn if the US and China fail to find a [..]

Week ahead – Fed minutes and European PMIs highlight a calm week

Posted on November 15, 2019 at 1:52 pm GMT

The economic calendar is relatively light next week, with the most crucial release being the euro area’s preliminary PMIs, which will reveal whether growth is headed for a contraction in Q4. In America, the minutes of the latest Fed meeting could add some color around the decision to hit ‘pause’ on rate cuts and clarify if the Fed intends to let the economy run hot. In the broader market, risk appetite will be driven by trade news, where the mood [..]

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