Daily Market Analysis

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European Session – Markets steady ahead of Trump’s inauguration; Oil rallies ahead of compliance meeting

Posted on January 20, 2017 at 4:16 pm GMT

Currency markets were relatively calm in Friday’s European session as global attention turns to President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony in Washington. Investors will be eagerly watching for further clues on Trump’s economic policies in his inauguration address as much uncertainty remains over whether the new administration will implement many of the pledges made during the election campaign. The greenback fluctuated around 115 yen for much of the session, having recovered from its Asian session low of 114.53 to peak at [..]

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Asian session – Dollar backtracks slightly ahead of Trump inauguration; Chinese GDP in line

Posted on January 20, 2017 at 8:32 am GMT

The US dollar posted some modest losses during today’s Asian session, as a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in Stanford sounded a little less hawkish than the one given the previous day in San Francisco.  There was also uncertainty ahead of Donald Trump’s key inaugural address later in the day, where economic issues could be featured given Trump’s pre-election promises of more jobs and faster economic growth. Chair Yellen stressed the need for a gradual approach to higher interest [..]

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European Session – Euro tests $1.06 as Draghi plays down threat from rising inflation

Posted on January 19, 2017 at 4:02 pm GMT

The euro came under pressure on Thursday as ECB President Mario Draghi played down any immediate risks from the recent pick-up in inflation across the Eurozone. The US dollar meanwhile continued to advance higher following yesterday’s hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, and the pound was also back in demand. As widely expected, the European Central Bank held its three key interest rates unchanged today at its first policy meeting of the year. In addition, the Bank kept the [..]

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Asian session – Yen tumbles as dollar benefits from Yellen’s rate views

Posted on January 19, 2017 at 8:47 am GMT

The Japanese yen was the main loser of Thursday’s session as stability in global risk assets caused some profit-taking in the safe haven currency. Dollar / yen rallied especially strongly as Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed views that were more in line with what the hawks in the Federal Reserve were saying recently.  Specifically Yellen said that a delay in raising rates could have negative consequences for inflation and / or financial stability and that she saw a steady pace [..]

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European Session – Pound slips back despite strong jobs data; Dollar attempts modest rebound

Posted on January 18, 2017 at 4:22 pm GMT

The US dollar recorded some gains against its major peers today following the previous days’ major losses. Indicative of the strengthening dollar was the rise in the dollar index to 100.63 in late European session, from 100.33 the previous day. Cable was down 0.8% at 1.2314 after strengthening by more than 3% in yesterday’s trading. The euro was down roughly a quarter of a percent at 1.0682 dollars, while dollar/yen was up by two-thirds of a percent at 113.34 after [..]

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Asian session – Dollar regains some ground while sterling faces profit-taking after best day

Posted on January 18, 2017 at 8:37 am GMT

The US dollar rebounded somewhat during Wednesday’s Asian trading while the pound gave up some of its gains following its best 1-day performance in almost 20 years. There were some conflicting influences on the greenback in recent sessions as certain Fed officials kept pointing to the need for more tightening in the New Year, while President-elect Donald Trump and his circle of advisers have begun to talk down the US currency.  On Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said [..]

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European Session – Pound surges above $1.23 on May Brexit speech; Dollar dips below 113 yen

Posted on January 17, 2017 at 4:35 pm GMT

British Prime Minister Theresa May delivered her much-awaited speech on Brexit today. PM May didn’t give much details on the specifics of the Brexit process but she outlined the broader framework for Britain’s departure from the EU. May stated that Britain does not seek a “partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union or anything that leaves us (Britain) half in, half out”, making it explicit that her proposal rules out membership in the EU single [..]

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Asian session – Pound recovers ahead of May, dollar drops, safe havens gain

Posted on January 17, 2017 at 8:33 am GMT

The British pound steadied ahead of a speech by Prime Minister Theresa May later today on the UK’s priorities regarding Brexit.  Markets were also worried by the increasingly protectionist tone coming out of the Trump administration and the uncertainty regarding his policies when he takes office this Friday.  These factors caused some profit-taking in risk assets and a rise in safe havens such as gold and the Japanese yen. According to reports from her office, May will not seek a [..]

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European Session – Sterling attempts to move away from 32-year lows; Dollar struggles to cling onto 114 yen

Posted on January 16, 2017 at 4:18 pm GMT

The British pound was attempting a rebound in today’s European session after the currency opened sharply lower today on newspaper reports on Sunday that the UK Prime Minister will signal a ‘hard Brexit’ in her speech tomorrow. Growing fears that the UK government is prepared to abandon the EU single market drove the pound to as low as 1.1986 dollars earlier in the day, making it the lowest since 1984 if October’s flash crash is excluded. British PM, Theresa May, [..]

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Asian session – Sterling drops on reports May will opt for ‘hard’ Brexit

Posted on January 16, 2017 at 8:20 am GMT

The pound fell sharply during Monday’s Asian trading as the market waited nervously for a key speech by British Prime Minister Theresa May on Brexit later this week.  According to press reports, the UK would aim to abandon the EU’s tariff-free area in exchange for control over its immigration policy. Pound / dollar fell below the psychologically important 1.20 level to trade as low as 1.1986; levels unseen since the October sterling flash crash.  The pound managed to reclaim the [..]

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