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Special Reports

Market continues to price in aggressive rate cuts for 2024 – Special Report

Posted on January 12, 2024 at 7:58 am GMT

The 2024 market theme remains for several rate cuts from most central banks Fed is seen cutting rates six times despite the November Presidential election ECB and the BoC to cut first; RBA the last one to join the club BoJ is finally seen hiking for the first time since 2007 – will it prove wishful thinking? Last year ended with clear feelings from the market’s side about the direction of rates in 2024: rate cuts across the board, apart [..]

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Is oil headed for another supply war? – Special Report

Posted on January 11, 2024 at 6:48 am GMT

Oil prices remain under pressure despite Middle East crisis Risk of another supply war between US and OPEC is rising Outlook for oil seems negative as supply outpaces demand    Oil unable to capitalize on geopolitical tensions Oil prices have taken a beating in recent months, falling by around 23% since late September despite a series of production cuts from the OPEC+ cartel that were meant to reduce supply and stabilize prices. Concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could spiral into [..]

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Volatility Report – January 9, 2024

Posted on January 9, 2024 at 9:21 am GMT

EUR/USD and GBP/USD volatility picks up, JPY crosses seem quiet Gold and Silver volatility inches lower, oil and Bitcoin set for big moves US indices in calm waters; DAX and JP225 volatility at monthly highs EUR/USD expected volatility remains high after a market moving NFP report and ahead of the US CPI data on Thursday. On the flip side, yen crosses are expected to experience very low volatility going forward. In commodities, gold and silver implied volatility has fallen substantially [..]

Cryptos Year Ahead 2024: Spot ETF approval and Bitcoin halving take centre stage

Posted on December 29, 2023 at 11:39 am GMT

Phenomenal year for cryptocurrency markets; 2024 could be even better Approval of spot-Bitcoin ETFs expected to spur institutional demand Bitcoin has shined in each halving year, will the streak extend?   Cryptos licked their wounds in 2023 After a catastrophic 2022, which was characterised by recurring blowups and cases of fraud within the crypto industry, this year has been a spectacular one for digital coins. Bitcoin has been one of the best performing assets globally, appreciating more than 150% year-to-date, while Ethereum [..]

Stock market outlook 2024: Soft landings, rate cuts, and elections

Posted on December 19, 2023 at 2:32 pm GMT

Stellar year for US stock markets, fueled by ‘soft landing’ hopes Can the rally persist in 2024, despite high valuations and election uncertainty?  European valuations are much cheaper, partly reflecting recession concerns   US stocks race higher, but tougher environment ahead It’s been a sensational year for US equity markets. The S&P 500 has risen more than 23% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has gained a stunning 52% so far, with both indices coming within breathing distance of their record [..]

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Volatility Report – December 19, 2023

Posted on December 19, 2023 at 10:29 am GMT

EUR/USD volatility eases aggressively, major JPY crosses remain in turbulent waters Gold and oil volatility at their midpoints, silver expected to experience sizeable moves Volatility drops in stock indices except JP225; Bitcoin returns to calmer periods EUR/USD expected volatility dropped to the lowest level of the past 30 days as the market appears to be preparing for the much-needed break. However, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely elevated but it is eventually expected to embrace the festive spirit. In commodities, [..]

Commodities Year Ahead 2024: Fed policy to drive gold, oil to dance to the rhythm of OPEC+

Posted on December 15, 2023 at 12:19 pm GMT

Gold enters uncharted territory twice in 2023 Fed policy to remain gold’s main driver in 2024 Industrial metals to stay locked on China Easing demand, OPEC+ supply, and geopolitics will shape crude oil   Fed rate cut expectations fuel gold After a dull 2022, gold staged a decent comeback in 2023, entering uncharted territories twice and appearing to be headed for a more than 10% yearly gain. The only period where the precious metal trended lower was between May and [..]

Volatility Report – December 12, 2023

Posted on December 12, 2023 at 12:28 pm GMT

EUR/USD volatility in neutral zone, major JPY crosses in turbulent waters Gold and silver follow opposite volatility paths, oil remains quiet Volatility picks up in stock indices except S&P500; Bitcoin set for sizeable moves EUR/USD expected volatility remains subdued despite the crucial CPI print expected later today. Meanwhile, the Yen has disrupted a period of calmness across the currency board as its pairs are the only ones showing a jump in volatility relative to last week. In commodities, gold volatility is fading following [..]

Volatility Report – Introducing our new weekly publication

Posted on December 12, 2023 at 12:25 pm GMT

Hello XM customers/viewers, Today we are introducing our new weekly post that helps you locate instruments that might make big moves in the coming sessions; the Implied Volatility Table. So, what is Implied Volatility and why it is important? Implied or expected Volatility is a forecast of a likely movement in a financial instrument’s price, which is derived from market-traded option prices. The instrument could be an individual stock, a commodity, an equity index, a currency pair, or even a [..]

FX Year Ahead 2024: As the race to cut begins, which currency will come out the winner?

Posted on December 8, 2023 at 1:15 pm GMT

Will Fed officials be the first to cut rates or will the ECB beat them to it? Falling inflation everywhere means a bearish US dollar is not a given Yen stands to gain from rate cuts as BoJ may hike Is sterling set for another bumpy year? Aussie and kiwi pin hopes on China recovery, loonie looks to oil boost Will the dollar bears finally get their way in 2024? After two consecutive years of gains, a correction in the [..]

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