U.S. natgas futures gain 2% on colder forecast for this week
Adds latest prices, quote
Feb 6 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose about 2% on Monday from a 25-month low in the prior session on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand this week than previously expected.
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through Feb. 20 except for a few cold days around the Feb. 18-19 weekend. Traders noted cold on the weekend does not boost gas use as much as cold during the workweek because usage is low on weekends when many businesses shut.
That price increase came despite forecasts for warmer weather and less heating demand next week and a growing belief that Freeport LNG's export terminal in Texas will soon start pulling in more gas to produce liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Analysts, however, have said they still do not expect Freeport to return to full LNG production until mid-March or later.
Japanese energy company Osaka Gas 9532.T, one of Freeport's five big customers, posted a $9.9 million loss for the April-December period. The company said part of the reason for the loss was that it had to buy more expensive LNG from other suppliers due to the Freeport outage.
Osaka said it was not counting on getting LNG from Freeport by the end of March. That was the same thing another big Freeport customer, Japanese energy firm JERA 9501.T, 9502.T, said on Jan. 30.
Freeport LNG told Texas state regulators last week that it would start sending gas to one of three liquefaction trains at its long-shut export plant. The plant is waiting for permission from federal regulators to start loading LNG to free up space in its storage tanks. The liquefaction trains turn gas into LNG for export.
Freeport, the second biggest U.S. LNG export plant, shut after a fire in June 2022. The energy market expects gas prices to rise once the plant starts producing LNG again. When operating at full power, Freeport can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into LNG each day. That is about 2% of total U.S. daily gas production.
Federal regulators will hold a public meeting on Freeport on Feb. 11 to provide members of the community and other interested parties an opportunity to voice their concerns about Freeport's restart plans and get an update on what's happening at the plant.
Even though some vessels have turned away from Freeport in recent weeks, including possibly the Prism Courage, several tankers were still waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from the plant, including Prism Agility (Jan. 2), Prism Brilliance (Jan. 26), Kmarin Diamond (Jan. 26) and Nohshu Maru (Jan. 31).
Prism Courage, which had been sitting outside Freeport since early November, moved away from the plant and was now listed as available "for orders," according to Refinitiv ship tracking data.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery rose 4.7 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $2.457 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since December 2020.
"It is interesting to note that the March contract is trading under the lower demand ‘shoulder season’ April and May contracts. Historically speaking, the winter contracts ... typically trade at notable premiums to the demand-minimum Spring contracts," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates said in a note.
Futures were trading at $2.55 per mmBtu for April NGJ23 and $2.68 for May NGK23.
On a daily basis, gas production was on track to reach 96.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday, up from a five-week low of 93.9 bcfd on Feb. 1 when extreme cold cut output by freezing oil and gas wells - known as freeze-offs - in several states, including Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania.
Week ended Feb 3 (Forecast) | Week ended Jan 27 (Actual) | Year ago Feb 3 | Five-year average Feb 3 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -185 | -151 | -228 | -171 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,398 | 2,583 | 2,133 | 2,249 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 6.6% | +6.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2022 | Five Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.42 | 2.41 | 4.46 | 6.54 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 17.99 | 18.58 | 26.94 | 40.50 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 18.53 | 18.37 | 25.82 | 34.11 | 14.31 |
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 354 | 385 | 405 | 406 | 405 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 358 | 389 | 409 | 412 | 410 |
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 96.0 | 95.7 | 95.8 | 91.7 | 87.7 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.4 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 9.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Supply | 104.3 | 104.2 | 103.7 | 102.1 | 97.0 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 5.2 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 18.4 | 16.1 | 14.4 | 19.4 | 16.4 |
U.S. Residential | 31.5 | 26.7 | 23.4 | 33.3 | 27.7 |
U.S. Power Plant | 33.5 | 31.5 | 31.2 | 29.6 | 28.1 |
U.S. Industrial | 26.1 | 24.7 | 24.4 | 26.0 | 25.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 117.5 | 106.6 | 101.0 | 116.2 | 105.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 137.4 | 127.1 | 121.0 | 136.7 | 119.9 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Feb 10 | Week ended Feb 3 | Week ended Jan 27 | Week ended Jan 20 | eek ended Jan 13 | |
Wind | 16 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 11 |
Solar | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Hydro | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 38 |
Coal | 18 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 19 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.40 | 2.67 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 4.51 | 22.19 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 4.93 | 5.35 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.12 | 2.64 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.42 | 2.85 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 11.00 | 26.06 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 4.15 | 6.00 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.49 | 2.24 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 2.00 | 2.24 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 215.75 | 237.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 59.75 | 145.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 17.50 | 29.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 48.50 | 52.43 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 42.10 | 65.00 | |||
SP-5 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 39.00 | 66.00 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Potter and Jonathan Oatis
For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters nEiko terminal.
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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