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AUDNZD

Noticias

Reuters - Hace 2 días

FX options wrap - Beware the short FX vol trade is back en vogue

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Beware the short FX vol trade is back en vogue Short vol (volatility) is an option strategy that benefits from a lack of realised volatility and falling implied volatility - the latter being a gauge for the former. The market is known to have readopted the short vol strategy since the passing of event risk from this week's plethora of central bank policy announcements.
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Reuters - Hace 3 días

Big option expiries can dominate quiet FX markets next week

BUZZ-COMMENT-Big option expiries can dominate quiet FX markets next week Sept 22 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can often influence FX price action by adding to any nearby support/resistance and potentially draw and contain spot near the strikes - and there are plenty next week. Stand out EUR/USD option strike expiries are on Monday at 1.0725 on 920-million euros, Tuesday at 1.0600 on 700-million, 1.0650-55 on 1-billion and 1.0700 on 1.4-billion euros.
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Reuters - Hace 3 días

FX options wrap - USD dominates in post cen-bank landscape

BUZZ-FX options wrap - USD dominates in post cen-bank landscape A bonanza of central bank meetings has now passed, with a hawkish tilt from the Fed leaving the wider USD on the front foot. However, there wasn't a huge drop in implied volatility, with the likes of 1-month expiry EUR/USD already low and seemingly fair value on a realised basis . EUR/USD spot losses remain a grind but that's due in part to the presence of RKO and binary barrier options, which can still be worth owning .
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Reuters - Hace 4 días

FX options wrap - Showing central bank FX volatility risk

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Showing central bank FX volatility risk Higher overnight expiry implied volatility is not complacent about the realised FX volatility risk from some major central bank policy decisions, but it's far below levels seen prior to previous meetings. That's certainly the case for the U.S. rate decision late Wednesday, with overnight expiry EUR/USD FX option implied volatility increasing 2.5 to 9.5, but having peaked above 16.0 on July 26. AUD/USD from 9.0 to 14.5 Wednesday, yet
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Reuters - Hace 2 semanas

Yen gives back some gains, dollar rebounds before inflation

FOREX-Yen gives back some gains, dollar rebounds before inflation By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The yen slipped on Tuesday after its biggest daily rise since mid-July the day before after comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible end to its negative interest rate policy reverberated throughout markets. The dollar, meanwhile, regained lost ground after clocking its biggest daily fall since July 13 on Monday, while the pound slipped after mixed UK labour mark
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Reuters - Hace 2 semanas

Yen gives back some gains, dollar rebounds before US CPI

FOREX-Yen gives back some gains, dollar rebounds before US CPI By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The yen slipped on Tuesday after its biggest daily rise since mid-July the day before as comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible end to its negative interest rate policy reverberated throughout markets. The dollar, meanwhile, regained lost ground after clocking its biggest daily fall since July 13, while the pound slipped after mixed labour market data.
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Reuters - Hace 2 semanas

Yen finds support, dollar rebounds ahead of US inflation

FOREX-Yen finds support, dollar rebounds ahead of US inflation By Rae Wee SINGAPORE, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The yen steadied near a one-week high on Tuesday as comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible end to its negative interest rate policy reverberated throughout markets, while the dollar regained some lost ground. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda told a newspaper interview over the weekend the bank could get enough data by year-end to determine whether it can end negative ra
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Reuters - Hace 2 semanas

Yen stands tall, dollar finds floor ahead of US inflation

FOREX-Yen stands tall, dollar finds floor ahead of US inflation By Rae Wee SINGAPORE, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The yen steadied near a one-week high on Tuesday as comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible end to its negative interest rate policy reverberated through markets, while the dollar regained some lost ground. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda told a newspaper interview over the weekend the bank could get enough data by year-end to determine whether it can end negative rate
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Reuters - Hace 3 semanas

FX options wrap - U.S. jobs bolster short vol trade, except CNH

BUZZ-FX options wrap - U.S. jobs bolster short vol trade, except CNH Sept 1 - The U.S. jobs data failed to help USD bulls and bolsters the case for short vol (volatility) trades . That's due to the current lack of FX directional impetus and the paring of event risk premium before a long U.S. holiday weekend, with fair value realised volatility measures well below current implied levels.
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Reuters - Hace 3 semanas

FX options wrap - NFP risk, expiry hedge flow, winning trade

BUZZ-FX options wrap - NFP risk, expiry hedge flow, winning trade Overnight FX option implied volatility is higher since its expiry included Friday's U.S. jobs data and flags the realised volatility risk premium that dealers are adding for this event. Recent price action suggests that FX volatility is more likely from a significant data beat that lifts U.S.
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Reuters - Hace 4 semanas

FX options wrap - Markets poised for more USD gains

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Markets poised for more USD gains Despite the Jackson hole symposium passing with little in the way of fresh rhetoric, the FX options market retains solid premiums for volatility with a clear USD call bias. Implied volatility across the bulk of the major G10 pairings is elevated near recent highs and well above June's long-term lows, despite a significant premium to past realised volatility - its fair value measure.
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Reuters - Hace 4 semanas

FX options wrap - Powell risk, overpriced, big CNH, TRY vol, expiries

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Powell risk, overpriced, big CNH, TRY vol, expiries FX option implied volatility trades near recent and longer term highs and appears overpriced in relation to realised volatility, leaving it vulnerable to a sell off if Fed's Powell fails to keep USD bulls on the front foot after his Jackson H ole speech. Overnight expiry option break-evens show the market is not complacent about the potential FX volatility risk from the Jackson H ole comments, but neither is it expecting
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Reuters - Hace 4 semanas

FX options wrap - Leaning toward more USD gains, for now

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Leaning toward more USD gains, for now Option traders appear to favour long USD calls over the Jackson hole symposium, which would give holders the right to buy the USD at levels preferable to the FX spot market in its wake. Overnight FX option implied volatility was marginally higher on Thursday, but expiry is just before Federal Reserve chair Powell's speech at 10:05 a.m.
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Reuters - Hace 1 mes

FX options wrap - Options too rich without more USD gains

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Options too rich without more USD gains Recent demand for the dollar and USD call options has lifted implied volatility, but its high elevation to realised volatility makes it appear very rich in the absence of more dollar gains. An increase for USD call over put volatility premiums on risk reversals does however show a growing perceived risk for more USD gains and potential volatility in that direction.
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Reuters - Hace 1 mes

FX options wrap - Ripe to sell, China premium, AUD puts, expiries

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Ripe to sell, China premium, AUD puts, expiries FX option implied volatility support has been aided by USD gains and CNH weakness over recent sessions, but a lack of FX realised volatility makes current levels appear ripe to sell . Short volatility trades would benefit from a continuation of the recent status quo in many of the G10 FX major currency pairs, but dealers may be holding out for Friday's speech by the U.S.
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Reuters - Hace 2 meses

FX options wrap - Predictions realised, so what next for FX?

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Predictions realised, so what next for FX? FX option implied volatility measures actual FX volatility expectations and those predictions are being realised , so far. Overnight expiry implied volatility priced a relatively tame U.S. CPI reaction and the post data moves met those break-evens. Huge long gamma and maturing option strikes have contained EUR/USD this week, with another 4.6-billion euros in the low 1.10's post CPI.
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Reuters - Hace 2 meses

FX options wrap - CPI FX premium, JPY drop, CNH gains, hedge

BUZZ-FX options wrap - CPI FX premium, JPY drop, CNH gains, hedge Overnight expiry now includes Thursday's U.S. CPI premium and despite a data dependent Fed, related FX volatility risk premiums appear tame. Implied volatility is heavy, but while it's found some mild support before the U.S CPI in most USD related currency pairs, it has extended losses in USD/JPY .
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Reuters - Hace 2 meses

FX options wrap - EUR gamma, AUD concern, CNH cover, huge JPY

BUZZ-FX options wrap - EUR gamma, AUD concern, CNH cover, huge JPY FX option implied volatility was under pressure, reflecting expecations of the traditional August lull in realised volatility, but the USD edged higher ahead of Thursday's US CPI data and limited deeper declines, for now. Traders were buying dips in AUD/USD implied volatility which shows concerns about deeper FX declines toward 2023 lows at 0.6459 (erased 0.6500 barrier options Tuesday).
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Reuters - Hace 2 meses

FX options wrap - Summer lull finally hits FX volatility premium

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Summer lull finally hits FX volatility premium FX option implied volatility has finally succumbed to the summer lull when holiday-thinned conditions traditionally limit FX volatility and any potential range break-outs. The passing of key central bank risks and a reduction in actual FX volatility has seen 1-3-month expiry FX option implied volatility retreat back toward June's longer-term lows.
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Reuters - Hace 2 meses

FX options wrap - FX volatility risk premiums have room to fall

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX volatility risk premiums have room to fall FX option implied volatility is off its recent highs and could fall further next week. Major event risks in the form of key central bank meetings have passed and realised FX volatility looks to have peaked. The U.S. NFP data didn't surprise, but markets may retain a little risk premium in shorter dated expiry options through Thursday's U.S.
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