Bulls and Bears face off -AAII
DJI edges green, Nasdaq, S&P 500 off slightly
Utilities weakest S&P 500 sector; energy leads gainers
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%
Dollar, crude, bitcoin gain; gold slides >2%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield jumps to ~3.53%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at email@example.com
BULLS AND BEARS FACE OFF -AAII (1108 EST/1608 GMT)
Individual investor optimism over the short-term direction of the U.S. stock market improved in the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey. With this, pessimism dipped, while neutral sentiment ticked higher.
AAII reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 1.5 percentage points to 29.9%. This is the highest level of optimism registered by the survey since Nov. 17, 2022 (33.5%). In any event, bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 37.5% for the 57th consecutive week.
Bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, slipped 2.1 percentage points to 34.6%. This is the first time since January 2022 that pessimism is below 40% for four consecutive weeks. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 60th time out of the past 63 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, edged up 0.6 percentage points to 35.5%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the fifth consecutive week. At five weeks, this is the longest streak of above-average neutral sentiment since a five-week stretch in March and April 2022.
With these changes, the bull-bear spread narrowed to -4.7 percentage points from -8.3 percentage points last week:
The current reading is still below the historical average of 6.6%. The bull-bear spread was last in positive territory on April 1, 2022.
AAII noted that concerns over the economy, inflation, corporate earnings and stock market volatility continue to "cause many individual investors to maintain a cautious short-term outlook."
U.S. STOCKS DECLINE AS HOT JOBS STOKE FEAR OF FED (1010 EST/1510 GMT)
Wall Street's main indexes are lower early on Friday after data showed the economy added jobs at a rapid pace last month, feeding into fears that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer in its fight against inflation.
That said, there has been some recovery off early lows. The Nasdaq .IXIC, which opened more than 2% lower, is now off less than 1%.
Still, nearly all S&P 500 .SPX sectors are red with interest-rate sensitive utilities .SPLRCU and real estate .SPLRCR taking the biggest hits. This, as the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield US10YT=RR is surging back over 3.50% from 3.40% on Thursday.
Banks .SPXBK and energy .SPNY are providing glimpses of green.
Here is a snapshot of where markets stood around 1010 EST:
IS JAN PAYROLLS THE REALITY CHECK MARKETS NEEDED? (0951 EST/ 1451 GMT)
After the Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed a rapid increase in January job growth, markets are now reassessing whether the Federal Reserve will indeed take its target rate above 5%.
Nonfarm payrolls showed 517,000 job additions in January, almost three times expectations of 185,000 additions, highlighting that the Fed's rate-hiking spree did little to shake the resilient U.S. labor market.
Markets are finally waking up to the reality of just how dire the situation could be in terms of the Fed having to really continue to push rates up, according to Brandon Pizzurro, director of public investments at Guidestone Capital Management in Texas.
The data also came in just as investors cheered Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledging that inflation was starting to ease after the U.S. central raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday.
Markets kicked off the year on solid footing, backed by hopes that the Fed would deliver just one more rate hike in March before calling it quits, but the blowout jobs reading has many expecting at least two more increases.
This would take the peak rate above 5%, a level repeatedly backed by Fed officials, a stark contrast to markets pricing in rate cuts by the end of the year.
"It's going to get harder to argue that rate cuts may be in 2023's future if the labor market is able to continue like this," said Mike Loewengart, managing director at Morgan Stanley.
(Shreyashi Sanyal, Ankika Biswas)
U.S. STOCK FUTURES RED ON HOT JOBS NUMBER, DISAPPOINTING TECH-TITAN EARNINGS (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
U.S. equity index futures are under pressure in the wake of the release of the latest data on U.S. employment.
The January non-farm payroll headline jobs number came in at 517k well above the 185k estimate. The unemployment rate was 3.4% vs a 3.6% estimate. Of note, wage data, on a month-over-month basis was in-line with the Reuters Poll, and slightly above the estimate on a year-over-year basis:
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool FEDWTACH, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the March FOMC meeting has now risen to around 95% from 83% just before the numbers were released. There is now around a 5% chance that the Fed sits on its hands in March from around 17% just before the data came out.
CME e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures NQcv1 are leading U.S. equity index futures lower, sliding around 2%. In the wake of disappointing tech-titan earnings reports, the futures were down around 0.8% just before the numbers came out.
Nearly all of the 11 S&P 500 sector SPDR ETFs are quoted down in premarket trade, with FANG groups such as consumer discretionary .SPLRCD, communication services XLC.P and tech XLK.P taking the biggest hits. Energy XLE.P is rising slightly, while staples XLP.P are around flat.
Regarding the jobs data, Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist, at LPL Financial said, "Certainly it's way above the consensus estimate. This is not what the market wants to see, nor is it what the Fed wants to see at this stage."
Krosby added, "This is kind of report that you want to see when coming out of a recession to signal strength in the economy, not when the futures market is looking at the Fed finishing its rate hike cycle."
Here is a premarket snapshot:
(Terence Gabriel, Caroline Valetkevitch)
FOR FRIDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)</body></html>
Avertissement : Les entités de XM Group proposent à notre plateforme de trading en ligne un service d'exécution uniquement, autorisant une personne à consulter et/ou à utiliser le contenu disponible sur ou via le site internet, qui n'a pas pour but de modifier ou d'élargir cette situation. De tels accès et utilisation sont toujours soumis aux : (i) Conditions générales ; (ii) Avertissements sur les risques et (iii) Avertissement complet. Un tel contenu n'est par conséquent fourni que pour information générale. En particulier, sachez que les contenus de notre plateforme de trading en ligne ne sont ni une sollicitation ni une offre de participation à toute transaction sur les marchés financiers. Le trading sur les marchés financiers implique un niveau significatif de risques pour votre capital.
Tout le matériel publié dans notre Centre de trading en ligne est destiné à des fins de formation / d'information uniquement et ne contient pas – et ne doit pas être considéré comme contenant – des conseils et recommandations en matière de finance, de fiscalité des investissements ou de trading, ou un enregistrement de nos prix de trading ou une offre, une sollicitation, une transaction à propos de tout instrument financier ou bien des promotions financières non sollicitées à votre égard.
Tout contenu tiers, de même que le contenu préparé par XM, tels que les opinions, actualités, études, analyses, prix, autres informations ou liens vers des sites tiers contenus sur ce site internet sont fournis "tels quels", comme commentaires généraux sur le marché et ne constituent pas des conseils en investissement. Dans la mesure où tout contenu est considéré comme de la recherche en investissement, vous devez noter et accepter que le contenu n'a pas été conçu ni préparé conformément aux exigences légales visant à promouvoir l'indépendance de la recherche en investissement et, en tant que tel, il serait considéré comme une communication marketing selon les lois et réglementations applicables. Veuillez vous assurer que vous avez lu et compris notre Avis sur la recherche en investissement non indépendante et notre avertissement sur les risques concernant les informations susdites, qui peuvent consultés ici.