Forint marches back toward its May highs, crown steady as economy stagnates



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Forint marches back toward its May highs, crown steady as economy stagnates</title></head><body>

By Karol Badohal

WARSAW, May 30 (Reuters) -Hungary's forint firmed slightly on Tuesday as it continued its advance back to one-year highs, while the crown held steady after data showing the Czech economy stagnated in the first quarter.

Currencies were largely drifting as many markets in Europe and the United States returned to action following a Monday holiday. The U.S. dollar's strength has been a key driver for the region in the past month, knocking central Europe's currencies from multi-month or multi-year highs.

On Tuesday, a steady dollar gave the forint room to inch higher, as it traded at 370.35 to the euro, up 0.3% on the day and creeping close back to the 368 - its strongest value since April 2022 - touched in mid-May.

"I see no market-moving news today that would influence the process of a slow strengthening of the forint thanks to the rate-difference," a Budapest-based trader said.

While Hungary's central bank has begun cutting interest rates, starting with a 100 basis point reduction in a one-day deposit rate, its base policy rate still is the highest in the European Union.

Central European rate setters were the first in the EU to begin sharp interest rate hikes in 2021. Inflation is still at double-digit rates but already past a peak in the region, leaving investors to bet on the start of rate cuts coming later this year in Poland or the Czech Republic, too.

The Czech central bank, though, has continued debate on a possible rate hike. Data on Tuesday, showing the economy stagnated in the first quarter, will likely back those calling for rate stability to continue.

"Persistent weakness in household consumption could be an argument against a further rise in interest rates in the bank's debate," Generali Investments CEE's chief economist Radomir Jac said.

The crown EURCZK= was little moved at 23.69 per euro, and in Poland, the zloty EURPLN= eased 0.2% to 4.529.

Stock markets were also a touch down, following global markets as relief that a possible default by the U.S. government had been averted gave way to concern that a debt ceiling deal could face a rocky path through Congress.

Analysts said the dollar's direction, tied to rate hikes in the U.S., would continue to help guide the region's currencies, which were missing a large impulse at the moment.

"It seems that at the moment, markets are waiting primarily for inflation data, because they will determine what central banks will do," Bank Pekao economist Piotr Bartkiewicz said.





CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1153 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




bid

close

change

in 2023

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

23.6900

23.6870

-0.01%

+1.98%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

370.3500

371.5000

+0.31%

+7.85%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.5290

4.5205

-0.19%

+3.54%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9640

4.9610

-0.06%

-0.43%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.2100

117.3000

+0.08%

+0.08%


Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2023

.PX

Prague

.PX

1308.23

1313.0200

-0.36%

+8.86%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

47378.25

47573.35

-0.41%

+8.18%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

1969.41

1980.39

-0.55%

+9.90%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

12285.56

12297.28

-0.10%

+5.33%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

5.7480

-0.0860

+288bps

-3bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.9680

-0.1730

+256bps

-12bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.5110

-0.1310

+212bps

-9bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.9330

-0.0590

+307bps

-1bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.9650

-0.0480

+356bps

+1bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

6.0330

-0.0360

+364bps

+1bps



FORWARD








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

7.20

6.89

6.18

7.18


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

13.85

12.42

11.06

15.70


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

6.84

6.46

6.16

6.90


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************













Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Jason Hovet in Prague and Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; Editing by Shweta Agarwal

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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