Daily Market Comment – Fed officials fire another shot at stocks, sterling recovers



  • Fed warnings and solid US data deal another blow to equity markets 
  • Dollar takes another step back as euro and sterling reclaim lost ground
  • Russia set to annex Ukrainian territories, Fed vice chief deliver remarks
Wall Street selloff

A stormy quarter is drawing to a close. Hopes for a soft economic landing have all but vanished as the Fed continues to beat the drums of forceful rate increases, sending financial markets into a tailspin. With bonds getting blasted alongside stocks, and even commodities rolling over lately, there has been nowhere for investors to hide.

Stock markets took another beating yesterday at the hands of some solid US economic indicators and more resolute Fed rhetoric. The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits keeps grinding lower week after week, signaling that the labor market remains incredibly tight despite the Fed’s best attempts to cool demand. 

Meanwhile, the chief of the Cleveland Fed raised the stakes further, saying that even a recession would not deter the central bank from raising rates. Of course, the Fed has to say that otherwise the market will start to price in rate cuts again, nullifying some of the tightening that has already been rolled out and making the battle against inflation even harder. 

The S&P 500 lost around 2% as fears of over-tightening by the Fed and quarter-end flows joined forces, in the absence of any real corporate buying since most companies are now in their ‘buyback blackout’ window. Generals such as Apple and Tesla that were carrying the market on their shoulders for months suffered the most damage, leaving a leadership vacuum that is often a harbinger of more weakness. 

FX retracements

In the FX complex, the dollar took a step back this week but it is still about to close the quarter with tremendous gains. The reserve currency has been on a roll this entire year, capitalizing on a perfect storm of interest rate differentials widening in its favor as the Fed outguns other central banks, safe-haven flows, and an absence of any attractive alternatives. 

On the opposite side of the coin is the euro, which managed to claw its way higher this week after getting bulldozed the entire quarter. While the fundamentals are improving on the margin, with Germany announcing a EUR 200bn energy plan to shield consumers and the ECB getting serious about defending the currency, a trend reversal is still difficult to envision with business surveys warning of an imminent recession. 

Nerves surrounding the British pound seem to have calmed for now, with Cable staging a fierce comeback from the record lows it brushed earlier this week. The Bank of England seems to have restored order, although nothing much has changed overall. Sterling is still at the mercy of global risk sentiment thanks to the nation’s swelling twin deficits, with the correlation between Cable and the S&P 500 running at an astonishing 93% over the last month. 

Geopolitics and Fed speak

As for today, geopolitics will be back on the radar. Russia’s president will attend a signing ceremony at 12:00 GMT to annex four more areas of Ukraine following some ‘referendums’ in those regions. Markets have stopped paying much attention to this conflict, yet the recent advances by Ukraine alongside the military call-up by Russia suggest the war is likely to drag on, and even escalate.  

On the data front, the highlights include the latest Eurozone inflation numbers and the core PCE price index from the US. Finally, the Fed’s second-in-command will deliver some remarks at 13:00 GMT. Brainard doesn’t speak often, so traders will pay attention. Another warning that the Fed will do whatever it takes to extinguish inflation could keep equity markets under pressure. 


최신 뉴스

Stocks gain on Powell dovish remarks, outlook remains cloudy – Stock Market News


Week Ahead – Australia and Canada kick off central bank bonanza


Daily Market Comment – NFP awaited as Fed rate hike bets cool, dollar plunges


Technical Analysis – USDCAD steps on 20-SMA; bears still present


면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.

온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.

이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.

우리는 웹사이트에서 최고의 경험을 전해드리기 위해 쿠키를 사용하고 있습니다. 자세히 읽거나 쿠키 설정을 변경하세요.

리스크 경고: 고객님의 자본이 위험에 노출 될 수 있습니다. 레버리지 상품은 모든 분들에게 적합하지 않을수 있습니다. 당사의 리스크 공시를 참고하시기 바랍니다.