Daily Market Comment – Stocks falter again, bruised dollar seeks to end losing streak
- Raffi Boyadjian
- Market mood sours again as China crackdowns, mixed earnings and Delta fears all weigh
- Dollar halts slide but struggles to regain positive footing after dovish Fed and soft data
- Pound sets sights on $1.40 as others lag, gold battles to reclaim $1,830/oz
Regulatory crackdowns in China, ongoing concerns about the Delta variant and warnings of slower earnings growth ahead all came to a head this week when it was meant to be all about the Fed. Instead, the Fed’s snail-paced approach to debating QE withdrawal has put taper fears on the back burner, while new risks have emerged.
Stocks in China were back in the red on Friday as the damage inflicted on investor confidence by the recent clampdowns on private enterprises by Chinese authorities appears to run a bit deeper than initially feared. Regulators had managed to temporarily calm the market panic yesterday, but it seems that their reassurances that the crackdowns were a one-off and won’t be widened to further industries didn’t go far enough.
The CSI 300 index was last trading 0.8% lower, on track for losses of more than 5% for the week. Most other Asian indices were down too, while the major European bourses started the day 1% lower as US stock futures slid.
Amazon.com reported revenue that was less than expected on Thursday, and even though earnings per share beat the estimates, its warning that sales growth would slow in the third quarter hit sentiment in broader equities. Nasdaq futures were last down 1.3%.
Although the earnings season isn’t over yet, the fact that two of Wall Street’s tech juggernauts (the other being Facebook) have said they are not anticipating revenue growth to keep pace with recent quarters doesn’t bode well for the rally. For many investors, this was the proof they needed that we’ve reached peak growth, and with virus cases still rising in many countries, including the US, the second half could be a more challenging period for equities.Dollar steadies, pound, euro and loonie are week’s winners
The stock market jitters helped the US dollar steady somewhat, though its index against a basket of currencies was slipping again after rising slightly in overnight trade. Both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were on the backfoot, however, suggesting that in the currency markets at least, the tone is improving as the week draws to a close.
The British pound was aiming for a fifth straight day of gains, reaching a one month high of $1.3975 and setting its sights on the $1.40 level for its next target. The euro has also had an impressive run this week and is flirting with the $1.19 level after both French and Italian Q2 GDP numbers surpassed expectations. German growth fell somewhat short of estimates but overall, the Eurozone does not appear to be in much worse position than America.
The US economy expanded by a solid annualized rate of 6.5% in Q2, but analysts were expecting a more robust rate of 8.5%. Weekly jobless claims and pending home sales also disappointed, and the data together underlined the Fed’s caution on moving very slowly with any tapering plans.
This could weigh on the dollar against currencies such as the pound, loonie and euro where the domestic data has been comparable or even better lately. However, in countries where the previously rosy outlook is now at risk because of the Delta variant such as Australia and New Zealand, the dollar could continue to stand tall against its aussie and kiwi peers.Gold gets stuck near $1,830, oil shrugs off market jitters
In commodities, gold held onto its post-Fed gains but appears to have met resistance around $1,830, which is a two-week high for the precious metal. If the dollar’s losses deepen in the coming days and Treasury yields remain subdued, the prospect for a break above this resistance is strong.
Meanwhile, the latest growth scares and stock market volatility have only had a mild dampening effect on oil as investors are still betting that demand will outstrip supply in the medium term. The evidence so far suggests that vaccines are effective in keeping hospitalizations low even as the Delta variant is causing a surge in infections in highly vaccinated populations. So markets are not at this point anticipating the lockdowns to spread to Europe and America, meaning a limited impact on oil demand from the increased virus curbs in Asia.
WTI and Brent crude futures were slightly down on Friday but on course for healthy weekly gains.
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.