Daily Market Comment – Wall Street runs into resistance wall, oil eyes Iran deal



  • Stock and bond markets tell very different stories about what’s next
  • Euro/dollar continues to chop sideways, gold claws its way higher 
  • Oil in focus as Iran talks reach ‘final text’, deal awaits approval
Conflicting narratives

Equity and bond markets have been at odds with each other lately, painting conflicting pictures of what lies ahead. The price action in stocks has been consistent with a soft economic landing, with Apple shares down less than 10% from record highs and the meme stocks making a comeback lately, whereas a deepening yield curve inversion in the bond complex points to a painful recession. 

One of these asset classes has it wrong. Funnily enough, the prime reason Wall Street has recovered so much over the past few weeks has been precisely because of intensifying recession risks, which have dragged bond yields down and eased the pressure on valuations. And despite all the talk about a decent earnings season, real earnings growth for the S&P 500 has been negative by almost 2.5% year-over-year once inflation is accounted for. 

Therefore, real earnings are in contraction, most shares have rallied because the bond market is scared of recession, and the resulting loosening in financial conditions is counterproductive for a Fed trying to cool inflation, pressing the officials to roll out another triple rate hike in September. Pair this with the S&P 500 encountering resistance around 4,180 - a crucial Fibonacci retracement region - and it seems like the seven-week relief rally might be running on fumes. 

Of course, the deciding factor will be the latest CPI inflation report tomorrow. 

Euro/dollar chops, gold inches up

Crossing into the forex arena, it was a quiet session. Most major pairs traded in narrow ranges and closed near their opening levels, with the prevalent theme being a slight retracement in the US dollar. Some notable exceptions were the Australian and Canadian dollars, which staged a decent rally, finding some solace in recovering commodity prices. Meanwhile, euro/dollar continued to chop sideways around the $1.02 zone.  

Gold prices capitalized on the minor retracement in the US dollar and real yields, clawing their way higher for another battle with the 50-day moving average. The latest positioning data from the CFTC suggests funds and money managers briefly turned net-short on the yellow metal last month - a very rare phenomenon. 

It is difficult to like gold at this stage of the cycle. It seems like all news is somehow bad news for bullion as market participants keep shifting back and forth between inflation or growth concerns. Either inflation pushes yields higher or recession worries feed the US dollar, which in turn cap advances in gold. Any trend reversal remains unlikely until the Fed backs off. 

Oil in the limelight

Following months of inconclusive talks, a nuclear deal between Iran and Western nations that revives some lost oil production seems to be imminent. The ‘final text’ of the agreement is reportedly ready and will need to be approved by Washington and Tehran before it goes into force. 

There are several question marks about whether this deal will be accepted, and if so, by how much Iran can ramp up production. Nonetheless, any deal would be important at least for psychological purposes, helping to flush speculators out of their long oil positions. 

Oil prices are standing on quicksand as traders evaluate whether this deal will be ratified, and the outcome could have repercussions for every asset class considering that soaring energy prices have been behind much of the inflationary storm. The euro and yen stand to gain the most, as lower oil prices could help restore their terms of trade and improve their growth trajectory. 

면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.

온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.

이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.

우리는 웹사이트에서 최고의 경험을 전해드리기 위해 쿠키를 사용하고 있습니다. 자세히 읽거나 쿠키 설정을 변경하세요.

리스크 경고: 고객님의 자본이 위험에 노출 될 수 있습니다. 레버리지 상품은 모든 분들에게 적합하지 않을수 있습니다. 당사의 리스크 공시를 참고하시기 바랍니다.