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Crown bounces from six-week low



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Crown bounces from six-week low</title></head><body>

PRAGUE, June 24 (Reuters) -The crown and other central European currencies gained on Monday, with the Czech currency recovering some ground after falling to a six-week low amid bets the country's central bank could opt for a bigger interest rate cut this week.

Currencies got a lift from better investor sentiment as the dollar was a touch weaker on Monday.

But the crown is likely to see pressure this week amid uncertainty whether Czech National Bank policymakers will slow the pace of interest rate cuts on Thursday, following a similar slowdown in Hungary last week.

The Czech central bank has cut its key rate by 50 basis points at each of its past three meetings, part of a 175-bp easing cycle started in December.

Analysts, though, see the bank opting now for a 25-bp cut, with service price inflation strong and real wages growing.

Rate setters have said both cut options are on the table, leading to increasing bets they may maintain a 50-bp cutting pace. The crown fell last week to its lowest since early May.

ING said the crown would hover around current levels before the meeting. Signals the bank will become more hawkish regardless of the size of the June cut should help the crown after that.

"We think we will see the weakest levels of the CZK on the day of the meeting and the next weeks should bring appreciation given that already the central bank will turn hawkish in any case and macro fundamentals are strengthening," ING said in a note.

The crown EURCZK= rose 0.3% to 24.90 to the euro on Monday, after approaching the psychological 25 level late last week.

In Hungary, whose central bank slowed its easing pace to 25 basis points last week, the forint EURHUF= gained 0.4% to 395.00 to the euro.

The Hungarian rate cut was the smallest in its 14-month easing cycle, but the bank did not rule out the scope for more reductions in the second half of this year, which markets took dovishly, punishing the forint.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= added 0.3% on Monday, trading at 4.3175 per euro. While the crown and forint have faced pressure, the zloty has been well supported, partly by expectations of European Union fund flows as a new government in Warsaw cools past rule-of-law disputes with Brussels.

Markets, however, could face some turbulence before elections in France in which the far right National Rally (RN) party and its allies were leading polls.

"The situation on the French political scene is one of the sources of volatility in European assets in recent days," Bank Millennium said in a client note.

"The risk of nationalists forming a (French) government is one of the elements responsible for the current depreciation of the euro and the dynamic increase in the yield of French debt."



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1045 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.9000

24.9740

+0.30%

-0.80%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

395.0000

396.5000

+0.38%

-2.99%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3175

4.3290

+0.27%

+0.63%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9775

4.9770

-0.01%

-0.06%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1538.91

1531.5600

+0.48%

+8.83%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

70461.37

70378.92

+0.12%

+16.23%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2522.85

2489.91

+1.32%

+7.68%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

18234.81

18234.81

+0.00%

+18.63%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

4.1150

0.0150

+132bps

+2bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.1090

0.0130

+170bps

+2bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.2310

0.0310

+183bps

+4bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.1680

-0.0320

+238bps

-3bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.5740

-0.0530

+316bps

-5bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.7560

-0.0460

+335bps

-4bps












Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala

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