Forint outperforms region ahead of cenbank rate meeting



By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint EURHUF= led gains in the region on Tuesday as some investors were betting on the central bank hiking its benchmark interest rate more than previously expected at its meeting later in the day.

According to a Reuters poll of analysts, the NBH is expected to raise its base rate by 15 basis points to 1.8%. The bank will announce its decision at 1200 GMT with a statement to follow at 1300 GMT.

The forint EURHUF= firmed 0.51% to 360.00 per euro after falling to its weakest level since July in the previous session.

Some market participants expect a bigger rate hike than 15 basis points, which is supporting the forint, two FX traders in Budapest said.

"Analysts now agree that high inflation is here to stay, and the market has started to price in that something needs to happen," one trader said.

Commerzbank wrote that a 15 basis point hike is priced in and is "unlikely to provide much support for the forint."

The currency has given up nearly all its gains since the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) started tightening in June as it slowed the pace of rate rises last month despite raising its inflation forecasts.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban's aide Marton Nagy said on Tuesday Hungary's central bank has launched a "half-hearted" tightening cycle amid a massive fiscal impulse from the government, resulting in a policy divergence.

A surge in price growth in eastern Europe has opened a rift between central banks that have launched rate hikes to battle inflation and populist governments trying to defend a strong economic recovery.

Hungarian government bond yields were stable on Tuesday after a jump at the long end of the curve in the previous session when yields rose about 15 basis points along with yields in Poland.

"This is not unique to Hungary, there has been a selloff in regional papers recently as inflation expectations rise," a fixed-income trader in Budapest said.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= gained as risk appetite increased globally, although that "will be balanced by the persistent political risk on the Polish currency," Bank Millennium wrote in a note.

A row between Warsaw and Brussels escalated this month when the Polish Constitutional Tribunal ruled that parts of the European treaties were incompatible with the constitution.

The zloty was up 0.4% and trading at 4.5716 per euro.

The Czech crown EURCZK= edged up 0.09%, stuck near the 25.4 mark. Markets are pricing in another hefty 75 basis points hike at the bank's next meeting in early November.

Stocks in the region were mixed, with Prague .PX outperforming and adding 0.28%

CEE

SNAPSHO AT

MARKETS T

1118 CET

CURRENC

IES

Latest Previous Daily

Change

bid

close

change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech

<EURCZK= 25.4570 25.4800 +0.09% +3.03%

crown

>

EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 360.000 361.8500 +0.51% +0.76%

forint >

0

EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5716

4.5899 +0.40% -0.27%

zloty

>

EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.9495

4.9476 -0.04% -1.71%

n leu

>

EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5050

7.5085 +0.05% +0.57%

n kuna >

EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.500 117.5500 +0.04% +0.06%

dinar

>

0

Note:

calculated from

1800

daily

CET

change

Latest Previous Daily

Change

close

change in 2021 .PX

Prague

.PX

1358.31 1354.540 +0.28% +32.24

0

% .BUX

Budapes .BUX

54525.7 54637.92 -0.21% +29.49

t

3

% .WIG20 Warsaw

.WIG20 2461.97 2459.81 +0.09% +24.09

% .BETI

Buchare .BETI

12680.8 12669.78 +0.09% +29.32

st

8

% .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 1179.91 1179.16 +0.06% +30.98

na

>

% .CRBEX Zagreb

.CRBEX 2046.14 2042.40 +0.18% +17.64

% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 787.47

788.52 -0.13% +5.19% 5

e

5>

.SOFIX Sofia

.SOFIX

576.69

578.72 -0.35% +28.86

%

Yield

Yield

Spread Daily

(bid)

change

vs Bund change

in

Czech

spread

Republi

c

CZ2YT=R

<CZ2YT=R 2.6750

0.0030 +332bp

+2bps R

2-year R>

s CZ5YT=R

<CZ5YT=R 2.6290

0.0350 +310bp

+4bps R

5-year R>

s CZ10YT=

<CZ10YT= 2.5740

0.0520 +272bp

+5bps RR

10-year RR>

s

Poland

PL2YT=R

<PL2YT=R 1.7060 -0.1160 +235bp -10bps R

2-year R>

s PL5YT=R

<PL5YT=R 2.2840 -0.0210 +276bp

-1bps R

5-year R>

s PL10YT=

<PL10YT= 2.7290 -0.0170 +287bp

-2bps RR

10-year RR>

s

FORWARD

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M

interba

nk

Czech

CZKFRA

3.22

3.49

3.55

2.06

Rep

<PRIBOR=

>

Hungary HUFFRA

2.65

2.99

3.23

1.89

BUBOR=

Poland

PLNFRA

1.58

2.00

2.41

0.69

WIBOR=

Note:

are for ask

FRA

prices

quotes

*********************************************

*****************


Additional reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Robert Muller and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri

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