Germany risks recession as Russian gas crisis deepens



* More Europeans activate first stage of gas crisis plans

* Surging gas price adds to policymakers' inflation headache

* Slowing flows hinder efforts to refill storage for winter

* 'We have a problem', says German regulator

By Rachel More and Stine Jacobsen

BERLIN/COPENHAGEN, June 21 (Reuters) - Germany faces certain recession if faltering Russian gas supplies stop completely, an industry body warned on Tuesday, and Italy said it would consider offering financial backing to help companies refill gas storage to avoid a deeper crisis in winter.

European Union states from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Adriatic in the south have outlined measures to cope with a supply crisis after Russia's invasion of Ukraine put energy at the heart of an economic battle between Moscow and the West.

The EU relied on Russia for as much as 40% of its gas needs before the war - rising to 55% for Germany - leaving a huge gap to fill in an already tight global gas market. Some countries have responded by temporarily reversing plans to shut coal power plants.

Gas prices have hit record levels, driving a surge in inflation and adding to challenges for policymakers trying to haul Europe back from an economic precipice.

Germany's BDI industry association on Tuesday cut its economic growth forecast for 2022 to 1.5% from the 3.5% expected before the war began on Feb. 24. It said a halt in Russian gas deliveries would make recession in Europe's largest economy inevitable.

Russian gas is still being pumped via Ukraine but at a reduced rate. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline under the Baltic, a vital supply route to Germany, is working at just 40% capacity. Moscow says Western sanctions are hindering repairs; Europe says this is a pretext to reduce flows.

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said the reduced supplies amounted to an economic attack and part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan to stir up fear.

"This is a new dimension," Habeck said. "This strategy cannot be allowed to succeed."

The slowdown has hampered Europe's efforts to refill storage facilities, now about 55% full, to meet an EU-wide target of 80% by October and 90% by November, a level that would help see the bloc through winter if supplies were disrupted further.

On Tuesday, Italy's government announced initial measures to boost gas storage after energy company Eni ENI.MI reported a shortfall in flows from Russia for more than a week.

Ecological Transition Minister Roberto Cingolani said in a statement the government planned to purchase coal if it needed to use coal-fired power plants to save gas. Cingolani also asked gas grid operator Snam SRG.MI to adopt measures to help bring gas stockpiles to around their targeted level for June.

The benchmark gas price for Europe TRNLTTFMc1 was trading around 126 euros ($133) per megawatt hour (MWh), below this year's peak of 335 euros but up more than 300% from a year ago.

'WE HAVE A PROBLEM'

Countries other than Italy, including Austria, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, have activated the first early warning stage of a three-stage plan to cope with a gas supply crisis.

Germany's Bundesnetzagentur gas regulator outlined details of a new auction system to start in coming weeks, aimed at encouraging manufacturers to consume less gas.

The head of the Bundesnetzagentur questioned whether current gas deliveries would get the country through the winter. Earlier, he said it was too soon to declare an all-out emergency, or the third stage of the crisis plan.

"As it stands today, we have a problem," Bundesnetzagentur President Klaus Mueller said on the sidelines of an industry event.

The CEO of Germany's largest power utility RWE RWEG.DE Markus Krebber said Europe had little time to plan.

"How would we re-distribute the gas if we were fully cut off? There is currently no plan ... at European level ... as every country is looking at their emergency plan," he told the same event.

Soaring European prices have attracted more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes, but Europe lacks the infrastructure to meet all its needs from LNG, a market that was stretched even before the Ukraine war.

Disruptions to a major U.S. LNG producer added to the challenge.

Europe is seeking more pipeline supplies from its own producers, such as Norway, and other states, including Azerbaijan, but most producers are already pushing the limits of output.

Even small consumer Sweden has joined European allies in triggering the first stage of its energy crisis plan.

The state energy agency said supplies remained robust but it was signalling "to industry players and gas consumers connected to the western Swedish gas network, that the gas market is strained and a deteriorating gas supply situation may arise".

Sweden, where gas accounted for 3% of energy consumption in 2020, depends on piped gas supplies from Denmark, where storage facilities are now 75% full. Denmark activated the first stage of its emergency plan on Monday. ($1 = 0.9477 euros)



FACTBOX-The three stages of Germany's emergency gas plan

FACTBOX-European measures in case Russian gas supply stops

EXPLAINER-Why Russia drives European and British gas prices

ANALYSIS-Europe fills up on gas but race to replace Russia far
from over

Europe gas storage graphic Link FACTBOX-Germany unveils emergency gas auction plan UPDATE 1-Germany maps out ways to cut gas usage amid Russia supply crunch

German regulator in no hurry to declare highest gas emergency level

Sweden declares 'early warning' for potential gas supply disruptions

UPDATE 1-Denmark declares 'early warning' for potential gas supply disruptions

WRAPUP 9-Moscow threatens Lithuania with 'consequences' over blocked rail to enclave

RWE chief says little time to prepare for Russian gas stop Reduced Russian gas supply an economic attack, says German economy minister

WRAPUP 6-Europe may shift back to coal as Russia turns down gas flows



Reporting by Rachel More and Paul Carrel in Berlin, Stine Jacobsen in Copenhagen, Nina Chestney in London, Giuseppe Fonte and Francesca Landini in Rome, Christoph Steitz and Vera Eckert in Frankfurt; Writing by Edmund Blair and Barbara Lewis; Editing by Carmel Crimmins, Mark Potter and David Gregorio

면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.

온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.

이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.

우리는 웹사이트에서 최고의 경험을 전해드리기 위해 쿠키를 사용하고 있습니다. 자세히 읽거나 쿠키 설정을 변경하세요.

리스크 경고: 고객님의 자본이 위험에 노출 될 수 있습니다. 레버리지 상품은 모든 분들에게 적합하지 않을수 있습니다. 당사의 리스크 공시를 참고하시기 바랍니다.