Stocks rally, dollar slips on wide risk-on sentiment
Eyes turn to outcome of U.S. mid-term elections
Fed policy outlook keeps rates high, dollar weak
Beijing seen easing some COVID-19 restrictions
Oil retreats with commodities on China outlook
By Herbert Lash and Amanda Cooper
NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Equity markets rose and the dollar slid on Monday as investors embraced hopes the U.S. economy is slowing enough to allow the Federal Reserve to ease the pace of its interest rate hikes and the idea that China may ease COVID restrictions.
Markets looked past data showing Chinese exports and imports unexpectedly contracted in October as China grapples with COVID-19 curbs and indications a report on the U.S. consumer price index on Thursday will show inflation remains high.
U.S. stocks indexes edged higher as investors weighed the outcome of Tuesday's mid-term elections. Voting will determine whether the Republicans are strong enough to take over Congress and underlines the difficult prospects for Democrats.
"On a day-to-day basis the market focuses on the headlines and what's coming up immediately ahead of us, and that's the elections," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York.
"What might or might not happen with the election is not that big of an influence on the market. The big influences are the Fed, and what’s happening in Ukraine and Russia," he said.
The major indices in Europe mostly edged higher, with the exception of the FTSE 100 .FTSE in London, while Wall Street rallied in late trading after a choppy early session.
MSCI's all-country world index .MIWD00000PUS gained 1.12%, and the broad pan-European STOXX 600 index .STOXX closed up 0.33%.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 1.3%, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 0.90% and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC advanced 0.85%.
While a divided Congress is typically viewed as good for markets, the hope the U.S. economy is losing enough momentum for the Fed to slow the pace of monetary tightening pushed the dollar lower, said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington.
"The market is really desperate for the Fed to pivot," Manimbo said. "It will take anything it can get in terms of signs of a softening economy to hold out hope that a pivot might materialize sooner rather than later," he said.
Slower inflation on the heels of signs in Friday's U.S. employment report that the labor market is cooling, would be positive for risk appetite and negative, at least over the short term, for the dollar, Manimbo said.
The euro EUR= rose 0.68% to $1.0028 and the Japanese yen strengthened 0.06% against the dollar at 146.52.
The dollar also was under pressure as traders held on to the idea that China could temper some of its COVID restrictions after the government on Monday indicated it will make it easier for people to enter and exit the capital.
Stephane Ekolo, strategist at Tradition in London, said the market is looking for an excuse to buy stocks.
"In spite of China sticking to its zero-COVID pledge, there are some in the market that still believe that China might somewhat ease its COVID-19 policy," Ekolo said.
A strong U.S. jobs report for October last week ensured the Fed will be in no rush to ease policy, though the pace of rate hikes may slow as the U.S. central banks keeps rates higher for longer, a view that is pressuring Treasury yields higher.
The yield on two-year notes US2YT=RR , which typically moves in step with rate expectations, rose 7.4 basis points at 4.726%, while the 10-year yield US10YT=RR was up 5.6 basis points to 4.214%.
A closely watched part of the yield curve measuring the spread between yields on two- and 10-year notes US2US10=RR , seen as a recession harbinger when the short end is higher than the long end, was deeply inverted at -51.7 basis points.
Median forecasts call for annual U.S. inflation to slow to 8.0% and for the core to dip a tick to 6.5%.
Oil prices rose to more than a two-month high on news that China, the world's top crude importer, could take steps toward reopening after years of strict COVID restrictions, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources.
U.S. crude CLc1 fell 82 cents to settle at $91.79 a barrel, while Brent LCOc1 settled down 65 cents at $97.92 a barrel.
Gold prices steadied near a three-week peak hit on Friday, buoyed by a weaker dollar as investors awaited the CPI report that could influence the Fed's interest rate policy.
U.S. gold futures GCv1 > settled up 0.2% to $1,680.50 an ounce.
Bitcoin BTC=BTSP fell 0.27% to $20,850.00.
Asia stock markets Link
Asia-Pacific valuations Link
Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo in Milan and Wayne
Cole in Sydney; Editing by Ed Osmond, Tomasz Janowski and Chizu
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.