Turkey inflation hits new 24-year high of 83% after rate cuts
ISTANBUL, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Turkish annual inflation climbed to a new 24-year high of 83.45% in September, data showed on Monday, still lower than forecast, after the central bank surprised markets by cutting rates twice in the last two months.
Despite soaring prices, the central bank was expected to cut its policy rate again this month, after President Tayyip Erdogan called for single-digit interest rates by the end of the year.
Inflation has surged since November last year, as the lira slumped following cuts to the policy rate by the central bank, in an unorthodox easing cycle long sought by Erdogan.
Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 3.08%, the Turkish Statistical Institute said, less than a Reuters poll forecast of 3.8%. Annually, consumer price inflation was forecast to be 84.63%.
It was the highest annual figure since July 1998, when it stood at 85.3% and Turkey was battling to end a decade of chronically high inflation.
September inflation was driven by transport prices, which surged nearly 118% year-on-year, while food and non-alcoholic drinks prices jumped 93.05%.
Despite the relentless rise in inflation, Erdogan said last week he had advised the central bank to lower its policy rate at its upcoming meetings, a day after saying he expects interest rates to come down to single digits by year-end.
JP Morgan said inflation was likely to remain in the "abnormally high range until policies get orthodox," adding that it expects the easing cycle to "continue until it cannot."
"Monetary policy decisions have become disconnected from macro fundamentals and have become almost irrelevant for short-term inflation dynamics," it said in a note.
Global recessionary forces, their impact on commodity prices and the pace of the lira's depreciation will be the main determinants of inflation, JP Morgan added.
After the data, the lira TRYTOM=D3 traded at 18.5620 against the dollar, weakening from a close of 18.5060 on Friday. It stood at 18.5660 at 1302 GMT.
The currency has been less reactive to economic data and Erdogan's comments than in the past, largely due to the central bank adopting a more dominant role in the forex market since December.
Goldman Sachs said it now expects the central bank to cut its policy rate by 100 basis points every month until the end of the year.
The bank cut its policy rate by 200 basis points to 12% in the last two months, going against a global tightening cycle despite the sustained rise in inflation, surging energy prices and the lagged effect of the lira's decline.
Last year's rate cuts had triggered a currency crisis that wiped 44% off the lira's value against the dollar in 2021. It has weakened some 29% this year to fresh all-time lows.
Last week's Reuters poll had shown that annual inflation was expected to decline to 72% by the end of 2022.
The government has said inflation will fall with its economic programme prioritising low rates to boost production and exports with the aim of achieving a current account surplus.
The domestic producer price index was up 4.78% month-on-month in September for an annual rise of 151.50%.
Reporting by Berna Suleymanoglu, Halilcan Soran in Gdansk and Marc Jones in London; Writing by Daren Butler; Editing by Jonathan Spicer, Andrew Heavens and Josie Kao
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.