XM은(는) 미국 국적의 시민에게 서비스를 제공하지 않습니다.

US dollar climbs to 10-week peak; euro, China's yuan fall



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>FOREX-US dollar climbs to 10-week peak; euro, China's yuan fall</title></head><body>

Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting, rate cut expected

China's fiscal stimulus briefing disappoints investors

Bitcoin and ether hit two-week highs

Adds new comment, FX table, graphic, updates prices

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and P.J. Huffstutter

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar touched a10-week high on Monday in thin trading, extending its weeks-longbullish run sparked bydata showing a modestly slowing economy that lined up with bets formoderate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Volume was light with several markets, including Japan and Canada, closed on Monday. The U.S. bond market is shut for Indigenous Peoples' Day.

The greenback roseagainst the Chinese yuan after China's weekend stimulus announcements disappointed investors.

The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's value against six major currencies, rose to 103.36 =USD, the highest since Aug. 8. It was last up 0.2% at 103.23, while the euro dropped to a 10-week low below $1.09, and was last down 0.3% at $1.0902 EUR=EBS.

The European Central Bank is expected to lower rates this week, butthe Fed remains the market's focus. The U.S. rate futures market has priced in an 87% chance the Fed will ease by 25 bps at the November meeting, and a 13% chance it will pause and keep the fed funds rate at the target range between 4.75% and 5%, according to LSEG estimates.

The Fed slashed interest rates by an aggressive 50 basis points at its last policy meeting about four weeks ago.

For the restof the year, the futures market expects about 45 bps in cuts and another 98.5 bps in rate reductions for 2025. That was way down from the roughly 200 bps in cuts that the marketimplied before the September Fed meeting and the blockbuster U.S. nonfarm payrolls report that reset easing expectations to a much shallower cycle than previously thought.

Expectations for smaller interest rate cuts have supported the dollar in the last few weeks, but that adjustment is likely on its last legs, analysts said.

"I suspect that it's (rate adjustment)almost over and we're back on the downtrend. But I do think there is still one more gasp," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

"We might trigger stops at $1.09 in the euro, or $1.30 in sterling. But I am looking ahead and the next U.S. jobs data is about 120,000. It's going to be a weak number."

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Monday reinforced the market's thinking on the U.S. central bank's easing policy.

"As of right now, it appears likely that further modest reductions in our policy rate will be appropriate in the coming quarters to achieve both sides of our mandate," Kashkari said in a speech at a Central Bank of the Argentine Republic conference, referring to the Fed's mission of keeping unemployment and inflation low.


ECB MEETING

In the euro zone, the euro fell for the 11th time in 12 sessions as investors moved to price in a 25 bp interest rate cut from the ECB with near-certainty at its Thursday meeting as data pointed to deteriorating euro zone activity.

Current indicators indicate continued weakness in the German economy in the past quarter, the economy ministry said in its monthly report on Monday.

Meanwhile, credit ratings agency Fitch revised France's outlook to "negative" from "stable" on Friday, citing increases in fiscal policy and political risks.

The pound dipped 0.1%against the dollar to $1.3054 GBP=D3.

Against the yen <JPY=EBS>,the dollar climbed to its highest since early August to 149.96 yen in thin trading, as Japanese markets were shut for a bank holiday. It was last up 0.5% at 149.89 yen.

Next on the market's radar are U.S. retailsales and jobless claims data, andthe ECB's policy review, all due on Thursday.

In Asia, trading wasdominated by Beijing's fiscal stimulus briefing. China's offshore yuan CNH= fell 0.3% against the dollar, and was last at 7.0906.

Without quantifyingthe proposed fiscal stimulus, Finance Minister Lan Fo'antold a press conference there will be more "counter-cyclical measures" this year.

"China's weekend stimulus announcement proved underwhelming as policymakers demonstrated an increased commitment to supporting growth, but failed to deliver the hard numbers markets had been hoping for," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist, at Corpay in Toronto.

The onshore yuan CNY=CFXS has fallen nearly 1% against the dollar since Sept. 24, when the People's Bank of China kicked off China's most aggressive stimulus measures since the pandemic.

In digital currencies, bitcoin BTC= rose to a two-week high and was last up 4.6%at $65,881.Ether surged 7% to $2,629 ETH= also touching a two-week peak earlier in the session.



Currency bid prices at 14 October​ 07:07 p.m. GMT

Description

RIC

Last

U.S. Close Previous Session

Pct Change

YTD Pct

High Bid

Low Bid

Dollar index

=USD

103.25

103.04

0.21%

1.85%

103.36

102.96

Euro/Dollar

EUR=EBS

1.09

1.0936

-0.32%

-1.25%

$1.0937

$1.0888

Dollar/Yen

JPY=D3

149.79

149.17

0.38%

6.16%

149.945

149.16

Euro/Yen

EURJPY=

1.09​

163.09

0.12%

4.92%

163.6

162.9

Dollar/Swiss

CHF=EBS

0.863

0.8574

0.68%

2.57%

0.864

0.858

Sterling/Dollar

GBP=D3

1.3052

1.3067

-0.09%

2.59%

$1.307

$1.3031​

Dollar/Canadian

CAD=D3

1.3796

1.3763

0.27%

4.11%

1.3805

1.3764

Aussie/Dollar

AUD=D3

0.6719

0.6751

-0.46%

-1.44%

$0.6793

$0.6703

Euro/Swiss

EURCHF=

0.9407

0.9374

0.35%

1.3%

0.9427

0.9371

Euro/Sterling

EURGBP=

0.835

0.8368

-0.22%

-3.67%

0.8373

0.8349

NZ Dollar/Dollar

NZD=D3

0.6087

0.6109

-0.33%

-3.65%

$0.6102

0.6071

Dollar/Norway

NOK=

10.7931​

10.6844

1.02%

6.49%

10.7985

10.7123

Euro/Norway

EURNOK=

11.7654

11.6887

0.66%

4.82%

11.781

11.7044

Dollar/Sweden

SEK=

10.4303

10.3569

0.71%

3.61%

10.4417

10.377

Euro/Sweden

EURSEK=

11.369

11.3313

0.33%

2.2%

11.3905

11.3391



Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Medha Singh in London and Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Editing by Jamie Freed, Jan Harvey, Hugh Lawson and Richard Chang

</body></html>

면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.

온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.

이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.

리스크 경고: 고객님의 자본이 위험에 노출 될 수 있습니다. 레버리지 상품은 모든 분들에게 적합하지 않을수 있습니다. 당사의 리스크 공시를 참고하시기 바랍니다.