Wall St Week Ahead: Inflation data may seal fate of unloved U.S. stock rally



By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - A rally in U.S. stocks that has powered on despite skepticism from Wall St faces a reality check in the coming week, as key inflation data threatens to shut the door on expectations of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 .SPX has walked a tightrope this summer, rising 13% from its mid-June lows on hopes that the Fed will end its market-bruising rate increases sooner than anticipated. A blowout U.S. jobs number on Friday bolstered the case for more Fed hikes but barely dented stocks – the S&P fell less than 0.2% on the day and eked out its third straight week of gains.

More upside could hinge on whether investors believe the Fed is succeeding in its fight against soaring consumer prices. Signs that inflation remains strong despite a recent drop in commodity prices and tighter monetary policy could further weigh on expectations that the central bank will be able to stop hiking rates early next year, drying up risk appetite and sending stocks lower once again.

"We’re at the point where consumer price data has reached a Super Bowl level of importance," said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird. "It gives us some indication of what we and the Fed are facing."

UNLOVED RALLY

Rebounds in the midst of 2022’s bear market have been short-lived and three previous bounces in the S&P 500 have reversed course to make fresh lows, fueling doubts that the most recent rally will last.

Investors' dour outlook was highlighted by recent data from BofA Global Research, which showed the average recommended allocation to stocks by sell-side U.S. strategists slipped to its lowest level in over five years in July, even as the S&P 500 rose 9.1% that month for its biggest gain since November 2020.

Institutional investors' exposure to stocks has also remained low. Equity positioning for both discretionary and systematic investors remains in the 12th percentile of its range since January 2010, according to Deutsche Bank published last week.

For their part, Fed officials have over the past week opposed the narrative of a so-called dovish pivot, with one of them – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly - saying she was "puzzled" by bond market prices that reflected investor expectations for the central bank to start cutting rates in the first half of next year.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 69% chance of a 75 bps hike at its September meeting, up from about 41% before the payrolls data. Futures traders have also factored in a fed funds rate of 3.57% by the end of the year.

Positioning in options markets, meanwhile, shows little evidence of investors rushing to chase further stock market gains.

One-month average daily trading volume in U.S. listed call options, typically used for placing bullish bets, is down 3% from June 16, Trade Alert data showed.

"We are surprised to not see investors start to chase upside calls in fear of underperforming the market," said Matthew Tym, head of equity derivatives trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. "People are just watching."

Celia Rodgers Hoopes, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, believes much of the recent rally has been driven by short covering, especially among many of the high-flying tech names that haven't done well this year.

"The market doesn't want to miss out on the next rally," she said. "Whether or not it's sustainable is hard to tell."

Of course, investors aren't uniformly bearish. Corporate earnings have come out stronger than expected for the second quarter, with some 77.5% of S&P 500 companies beating earning estimates, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, fueling some of the market's gains.

Antonelli of Baird also said a cooler than expected inflation number next week could push more investors back into stocks.

“Is there a scenario right now where inflation comes down and the Fed isn’t going to engineer a hard landing? There could be, and nobody is positioned for that.”

Others, however, are more skeptical.

Tom Siomades, chief investment officer of AE Wealth Management, believes the market is yet to see a bottom and has urged investors to avoid chasing stocks.

"The market seems to be engaging in some wishful thinking," he said. Investors "are ignoring the age-old adage, 'don’t fight the Fed.'"



GRAPHIC: Fourth time's the charm? Link



Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Writing and additional
reporting by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and
Josie Kao

면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.

온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.

이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.

우리는 웹사이트에서 최고의 경험을 전해드리기 위해 쿠키를 사용하고 있습니다. 자세히 읽거나 쿠키 설정을 변경하세요.

리스크 경고: 고객님의 자본이 위험에 노출 될 수 있습니다. 레버리지 상품은 모든 분들에게 적합하지 않을수 있습니다. 당사의 리스크 공시를 참고하시기 바랍니다.