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A September Fed rate cut could lead to an easing spree during end-2024

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.
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Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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Market Comment – Weaker US CPI sends US stocks into a tailspin

Top US stocks fall despite the weaker CPI report Dollar suffers but euro/dollar fails to make significant gains Gold climbs above the $2,400 level again Yen benefits from dollar weakness and possible intervention The September Fed rate cut is a step closer  The US inflation report for June managed to produce a downside surprise.
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Midweek Technical Look – EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY

EURUSD still finds strong support at 1.0800 AUDUSD posts new 6-month high  GBPJPY records extraordinary bullish rally towards uncharted levels
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Market Comment – Stocks undaunted by Powell’s mixed tone

US stocks rally continues after Chairman Powell’s comments French developments and ECB doves keep euro in check China reacts to bond market rally, but real issues persist Kiwi under pressure as RNBZ turns dovish US stocks rally despite Powell’s lack of dovish shift Fed Chairman Powell kept the cards close to his chest regarding the timing of the much-expected rate cut at yesterday’s Senate testimony, but he managed to satisfy the Fed doves by stating that considerable
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Market Comment – Spotlight falls on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony

Dollar stays on the back foot ahead of Powell Euro gains ground after French vote Yen steady as BoJ discusses bond purchases Wall Street extends rally, gold pulls back Traders lock gaze on Powell’s testimony The dollar continued losing ground against most of its major counterparts on Monday, gaining somewhat only against the franc and the kiwi.
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Lower FX volatility as equities appear agitated – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops aggressively Volatility in commodities increases a tad, apart from oil S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices’ volatility jumps Euro/dollar volatility has eased further over the past week as the market is feeling more relaxed after Le Pen’s far-right party failed spectacularly to win the highest number of seats in the second round of the French parliamentary election.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD tests 1.0800 tricky area

EURUSD recoups gap and ticks up But technical oscillators indicate negative move EURUSD opened with a negative gap today but successfully quickly recouped it, and has since remained above the 1.0800 round number and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The latest negative reversal in the RSI is discouraging, but the indicator is still in an upward move since bottoming out in the oversold region.
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Market Comment – Dollar slides on jobs data, Euro dips on French gridlock

US jobs data confirms bets of two Fed rate cuts Dollar slides ahead of Powell testimony, US CPI numbers Euro gaps down as French election results in hung parliament Wall Street at fresh records, gold jumps, oil pulls back US labor market shows signs of weakness The US dollar fell against all but one of its major counterparts on Friday, with the only exception being the Canadian dollar.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD jumps above 200-day SMA

EURUSD advances after violation of restrictive trendline Reclaims both 50- and 200-day SMAs Oscillators suggest that bullish forces are strengthening  EURUSD has been attempting a recovery from its one-month low of 1.0666, with the price crossing above the downward sloping trendline in place since December 2023. After some volatile sessions, the pair managed to conquer both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
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Week Ahead – Round two of French elections, Powell testimony and US CPI

French parties race to block Le Pen’s RN Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee US CPI data to shake Fed rate cut bets RBNZ to leave OCR untouched, focus on language   Euro traders keep gaze locked on French election Traders will be sitting on the edge of their seats on Sunday, in anticipation of Monday’s open and what market impact the second round of the French election will have.
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Market Comment – Spotlight on NFP as dollar sinks; pound unmoved by Labour landslide

Dollar slips further ahead of crucial US jobs report Pound marginally higher as Labour crush the Tories in UK election Equities set to end week on a high note, Bitcoin keeps slumping Stakes are high as markets brace for soft NFP After a bit of a wobble last week, stock markets around the world are back in bullish mode following the weak ISM surveys for both manufacturing and services that bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September.
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Midweek Technical Look – Gold, GBPUSD, EURUSD

Gold cheers on weaker business data, but a break above 2,368 is still needed GBPUSD retains positive momentum as the UK election kicks off; eyes on 1.2770 EURUSD resumes recovery mode; aims for a close above 200-SMA
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD holds above 200-period SMA

EURUSD continues the rebound off 1.0670 Price is bullish in near term Momentum oscillators are mixed EURUSD is finding strong support at the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) in the 4-hour chart near 1.0785. Also, the pair has been holding in an upside tendency after the bounce off 1.0670, with the MACD oscillator is holding above its trigger and zero lines.
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Market Comment – Dollar skids on ISM services dip, pound steady as UK votes

ISM services PMI points to unexpected contraction in June Treasury yields and dollar take a dive, but Wall Street rallies Pound in bullish mode as UK goes to the polls amid broader risk appetite September rate cut seen more likely Expectations of a September rate cut got another boost on Wednesday after the ISM services PMI fell into contractionary territory, adding to the growing signs of a slowing US economy.
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Market Comment – Market craves dovish Fedspeak as US stocks reach new highs

US stocks rally after Chairman Powell’s comments Focus on key US data today ahead of Thursday’s bank holiday Dovish ECB commentary to keep euro under pressure Dollar/yen rally continues US stocks rally after Powell’s comments The ECB-dominated forum held in Sintra, Portugal, managed to produce market-moving headlines for the Fed.
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Market Comment – Yen’s misery worsens, euro lower after CPI dip, dollar awaits Powell

Yen sinks to fresh 38-year low as officials refrain from verbal intervention Euro pares gains after CPI dip and French election uncertainty Dollar edges up on higher yields, but caution ahead of Powell comments Yen languishes at 38-year low    The Japanese yen ploughed a fresh 38-year low against its US counterpart on Tuesday, hitting 161.75 per dollar, amid ongoing doubts about the Bank of Japan’s ambition to normalize monetary policy and an unexpected pickup in US yields.
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Yen volatility remains high as equities appear calmer – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD slides after bullish gap

EURUSD pulls back from 50-day SMA RSI and MACD still point up EURUSD opened with a bullish gap today after the French elections on Sunday but is currently trading near its opening level. The price stands beneath the 1.0720 resistance level, with an indication of recouping the gap. The RSI and the MACD are heading north beneath their mid-levels.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD gaps higher over potential French hung parliament

EURUSD surges after French far-right party wins first race with weaker majority Bullish bias expected to come above 1.0788; sellers could take control below 1.0670   EURUSD opened with a positive gap on Monday after Le Pen’s far right party dominated the first round of the election on Sunday with a smaller margin than analysts expected, increasing speculation that an absolute majority on July 7 might be a struggle for the Euro-sceptic party.
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