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Week Ahead – US CPI to shift market focus back to data after Trump shock

After Trump comeback, normality to return to markets with US CPIGDP data from UK and Japan to also be importantBut volatility to likely persist as markets assess impact of Trump 2.0US CPI eyed as rate cut bets fade after Trump winDonald Trump’s historic return to the White House was met with a euphoric response by the markets. Wall Street and Bitcoin rallied to record highs, while the US dollar skyrocketed to 4-month highs.
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Daily Comment – Fed delivers rate cut, stocks rally but dollar not impressed

Fed cuts rates and keeps door open to a December movePowell appears confident about the inflation outlookEquities’ euphoria continues, strongest weekly rally of 2024Yen manages to gain against the US dollarThe Fed announces a rate cutWith the markets still digesting Trump’s win, the Fed announced the much-anticipated rate cut. Unswayed by concerns that Trump’s second term might lead to extreme protectionism and thus keep inflation high, the FOMC cut rates by 25bps, with Chairman Powell app
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD bounces off 1.2840 after significant red day

GBPUSD holds beneath rising trend lineMomentum oscillators are mixedGBPUSD had an aggressive bearish movement yesterday, losing 1.7% from 1.3045 to 1.2840, breaking the long-term ascending trend line to the downside again.Currently, the price remains beneath the diagonal line, with the next strong support level coming from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2820. If the price dives below this barrier, it could pave the way for steeper decreases up to the 1.2610-1.2670 range.Alternative
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Quick Brief – BoE cuts rates for the second time in 4 years

BoE lowers rates to 4.75% as inflation drops to 1.7%Pound holds in a range in short-termAt its meeting today, the Bank of England (BoE) lowered its main interest ratesby 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75% from 5.00%, following a hold in September and a quarter-point cut in August. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to reduce interest rates versus the anticipated 7-2 majority indicated in a Reuters poll and the split vote of 5-4 in August, suggesting a slight dovish tilt.The economic dat
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Daily Comment – Dollar pauses rally ahead of Fed, BoE meets as well

Dollar traders take a breather as Fed decision loomsFocus to fall on how likely a pause is in coming monthsBoE expected to cut, could take the sidelines in DecemberWall Street continues to celebrate Trump’s winWill the US election outcome impact Fed policy?After hitting a four-month high on the heels of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the dollar is pulling back today, as traders may have decided to lock some profits after the sharp rally and ahead of the Fed decision later today.Wi
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD in the red for six weeks

GBPUSD hits a new two-month low as Trump wins White HouseShort-term outlook remains bearish; focus on 200-SMA for potential supportBank of England, Fed announce their rate decisions today GBPUSD took a sharp dive to a two-month low of 1.2833 on Tuesday as the return of Trumponomics gave fresh impetus to the greenback.On Wednesday, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-September rally came to support the market ahead of the BoE and Fed rate decisions, but with the price failing to hol
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Quick Brief – ISM services PMI comes in favor of Biden’s era

ISM non-mfg. accelerates in October, employment index strengthens tooInvestors remain confident about a 25bps rate cut this week; dollar barely rises The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index came in favor of Biden’s administration on Tuesday, arriving stronger than expected as US voters headed to the polls to elect the next President.The survey for October showed surprisingly increased business activity for the second consecutive month, with the index rising to 56.0 – the highest in more than tw
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Volatility remains high as US voters elect a new president – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility climbs to a new monthly highVolatility remains very elevated in both gold and silverStock indices experience a jump in volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has climbed to a new 30-day high, as market participants are preparing for the US presidential election and Thursday’s Fed meeting. This heightened volatility is being observed across the FX space, including in the yen pairs.
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Daily Comment – Markets hold their breath as America votes

US presidential election in the spotlightMarkets in anticipation mode as volatility is elevatedDollar, equities and gold remain under pressureAussie fails to materially benefit from RBA’s hawkishnessThe long wait is finally overThe countdown for the biggest event of 2024 is finally over as in a few hours around 80 million registered voters will cast their vote across the United States.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

The US election is here! Will USDJPY continue its upward momentum?EURUSD takes a U-turn before the Fed's policy announcementGBPUSD stays trapped below 1.3000 as the BoE rate decision looms2024 US election --> USDJPY November 5 will be a sleepless day in the US as voters will finally head to the polls to elect the next president. The battle between the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Vice-President Kamala Harris has been hanging in the balance, and any outcome is possible, despi
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD turns up after 2½-month low

GBPUSD meets uptrend lineStochastics and RSI are mixedGBPUSD is reversing yesterday's losses, which marked a new two-and-a-half month low of 1.2840. The pair is battling with the medium-term ascending trend line again, raising chances for a bullish correction of the 1.3433–1.2840 bearish wave.The technical oscillators show some mixed signs.
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Week Ahead – US election draws all eyes, Fed, RBA and BoE meet

Traders lock gaze on Tuesday’s US electionTrump and Harris battle neck and neck in final stretchFed to decide whether to cut interest ratesRBA and BoE decisions are also on next week’s agendaThe US dollar flexed its muscles lately on the back of upbeat data suggesting that there is no need for the Fed to deliver another bold 50bps rate cut at the remaining gatherings of the year, but also due to increasing market bets that Donald Trump will return to the White House.It’s US election time!T
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Daily Comment – Dollar slips amid stronger yen and euro, data barrage continues

Yen up after Bank of Japan sounds more hawkish than expectedEuro climbs on stronger German GDP and inflationDollar choppy after mixed US data, focus turns to PCE inflationStocks struggle on earnings outlook worriesYen gets unexpected boostThe yen firmed up on Thursday after the Bank of Japan struck a somewhat more hawkish-than-expected tone as it kept rates on hold but signalled it remains on track to raise rates further.
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Daily Comment – Wall Street lifted by earnings as election jitters boost gold

US dollar and gold remain elevated as markets bet on Trump winBut Nasdaq hits record amid optimism about tech earningsSlew of data awaited out of the US and Eurozone, UK budget also eyedUS election angst still driving sentiment  Growing anxiety about the US presidential election continued to set the market mood on Wednesday, with Republican candidate Donald Trump extending his gains in the polls.
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Volatility jumps as markets prepare for action-packed period – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility climbs to a new monthly highVolatility remains very elevated in both gold and silverStock indices continue to experience average volatility Euro/dollar volatility continues to increase, achieving a new 30-day high, as the markets are preparing for Friday’s jobs report, and next week’s US presidential election and the Fed meeting.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD moves horizontally within 1.2900 – 1.3000

GBPUSD loses momentum near uptrend lineStochastic ticks higher, but RSI flattensGBPUSD headed south in the preceding week, breaking the long-term ascending trendline to the downside. However, the pair is currently holding within a tight range after failing to extend the bearish tendency, but there is strong resistance at the 1.3000 round num
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Week Ahead – A decisive week for USD with NFP and more; BoJ meets

A crucial week lies ahead with US jobs report, advance GDP and PCE inflationThe Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates, but will it flag a year-end hike?Flash GDP and CPI data for the euro area are also hotly anticipatedAustralian quarterly CPI and UK budget on the agenda tooAll eyes on US data as Fed turns hawkish againThe Federal Reserve’s surprise decision in September to cut rates by a larger-than-expected 50-basis-points seems like a distant memory now, as policymakers are once again sen
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD rises after hitting 1.2900

GBPUSD returns above uptrend lineStochastics and RSI show positive signsGBPUSD headed south on Wednesday’s session, meeting the 1.2900 round number, but today is recouping its losses and is testing again the 1.2970 level. The bearish wave may come to an end, especially if the market successfully climbs above the bearish cross within the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) of 1.3100–1.3130.On the other hand, a downward move could find the next support at the 200-day SMA at 1.2800 bef
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Daily Comment – Stocks under pressure amid US election jitters, dollar extends gains

Reduced Fed rate cut bets and growing odds of a Trump win push up yieldsWall Street slips; gold also takes a hit, but only temporarilyDollar climbs to 3-month high, yen and euro struggleWall Street headed for weekly lossesThe rally on Wall Street came to an abrupt end this week as uncertainty about the looming US presidential election as well as about the pace of Fed rate cuts undermined confidence in risk assets.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD: One more burst of strength?

GBPUSD prints new lower low, reaches long-term support trendlineTechnical signals remain discouraging; more sellers wait below 1.2950 GBPUSD is currently in its fourth consecutive week of losses, gradually slipping below the 1.3000 mark for the first time since August. The pair recently hit a new lower low of 1.2943, with technical indicators reflecting persisting selling appetite.
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