US Open Note – Greenback slips as Fed tapering starts

Fed tapering begins

According to the FOMC meeting of November 2-3, tapering will begin this week as planned. The New York Fed announced its modified bond-purchase schedule last week, confirming that tapering will start this month. Until June, the Federal Reserve intends to keep reducing its purchases by $15 billion each month. There is a possibility of a change in tapering speed, but the Fed has indicated that it will only do so if it is necessary. Futures for the Fed Funds rate are still pricing in a Q2 liftoff of roughly two-thirds, while Q3 is priced in completely. If economic indicators and inflation remain strong, the dollar's recent surge is expected to continue.

President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping will hold their first virtual meeting tonight, amid heightened tensions between the superpowers on matters like the origins of Covid-19, human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and the future of Taiwan.

Lagarde’s rate hike commentary

President Lagarde indicated today that a rate hike in 2022 is "extremely doubtful" but added "I do not think I will venture into 2023.". She went on to say that over the medium run, inflation will fall below the 2% target level. While she plainly wants to keep all options open, Lagarde finds herself in a delicate balancing act as several other central banks have already begun to tighten monetary policy.

FX and commodities markets

The US dollar index is falling from the recent high of 95.42 and dollar/yen is diving below the 114.00 psychological number. The British pound hit a new low on Friday at $1.3352, while the euro is struggling to jump strongly higher from the 16-month low of $1.1461. US stock futures are returning to gains, suggesting a positive open again.

Commodity currencies are gaining some ground. The aussie is finding strong support at the $0.7300 level and the kiwi is approaching the $0.7100 number. Dollar/loonie is losing momentum after the climb at 1.2600.

WTI oil prices have dipped below $80/per barrel as traders awaited President Joe Biden's response to rising fuel prices. In the gold market, the price is flattening around today’s high of $1,867/per ounce.

Coronavirus updates

Unvaccinated persons in Austria will be put under mandatory quarantine starting today, the most extreme Western European response to the recent coronavirus pandemic. Last week, Europe had over 2 million cases, the largest in a single week since the pandemic began. After a record number of cases, the Netherlands and Latvia have both implemented new restrictions, while Germany is exploring new measures as a result of the unprecedented increase in infections.

Pinakabagong Balita

Could Canadian inflation power loonie’s rally? – Forex News Preview

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD’s bearing in question as gradual ascent struggles

Technical Analysis – Gold sluggish below 1,830 but bullish pressures still alive

Technical Analysis – USDJPY finds foothold on 200-MA, but bearish risks linger

Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.

Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.

Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.

Gumagamit kami ng cookies para mabigyan ka ng mahusay na karanasan sa aming website. Magbasa pa o palitan ang iyong cookie settings.

Babala sa Risk: Ang iyong kapital ay maaaring malugi. Ang mga produktong naka-leverage ay maaaring hindi para sa lahat. Tingnan ang aming Risk Disclosure.