Australia, NZ dollars looking vulnerable after bearish week



By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Sept 17 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were carrying losses for the week on Friday after repeated failures to breach resistance left the market in a bearish mood.

The Aussie was down 0.9% for the week at $0.7289 AUD=D3 , having touched a three-week low at $0.7274 overnight. The next major support level is $0.7222, while resistance lies at $0.7348 and $0.7408.

The kiwi dollar was off 0.8% for the week at $0.7070 NZD=D3 , having repeatedly failed to clear resistance in the $0.7140/50 area despite a run of strong economic news. Immediate support comes in at $0.7060 and $0.7020.

Both currencies have suffered as worries about China's economy weighed on risk sentiment and commodity prices. Beijing has added to the pressure by clamping down on major emitters and lowering output caps for steel makers.

As a result, iron ore prices have plunged by more than half since peaking in May, delivering a body blow to Australian mining profits, dividends and tax receipts. The ore is Australia's single biggest export earner.

The setback came as domestic data confirmed that coronavirus lockdowns had caused a steep fall in employment in August which is likely to delay progress on wages and inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this week reiterated that it was unlikely to hike interest rates until 2024 given the slow growth in wages, while markets are wagering on a move from the Federal Reserve in late 2022.

"The RBA was in no mood to do the A$ any favours this week," said Westpac forex analyst Sean Callow. "If, as the RBA believes, the cash rate is still 0.1% in late 2023, it probably won't have much company in the G10 outside the ECB and BoJ."

"Risks remain for an AUD test of $0.7200/50."

Australian 10-year bond yields AU10YT=RR were pulled higher for the week by Treasuries, but at 1.298% are still 4 basis points below their U.S. counterparts.

New Zealand's 10-year yields NZ10YT=RR are up at 1.898%, putting them 55 basis points above Treasuries, reflecting expectations the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise interest rates next month. RBNZWATCH

The divergence on rate outlooks has seen the Aussie fall steadily against the kiwi for much of the past three months to reach its lowest since April last year at NZ$1.0294 AUDNZD= . "AUDNZD continues to be a one way bet," said Mazen Issa, a senior FX strategist at TD Securities. "We think the cross is nearing pricing in peak macro and policy divergence, but a bounce may not come until we know if the RBNZ decides to hike by 25 or 50 basis points."
Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing


Mga Kaugnay na Asset


Pinakabagong Balita

China's yuan eases from 2-week high as COVID cases rise again

U

Vietnam dong, gold rates - Aug. 11


African Markets - Factors to watch on Aug 11


Fed doesn't see enough swallows for summer

E
U
U

Turkey - Factors to Watch on Aug 11

Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.

Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.

Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.

Gumagamit kami ng cookies para mabigyan ka ng mahusay na karanasan sa aming website. Magbasa pa o palitan ang iyong cookie settings.

Babala sa Risk: Maaaring malugi ang iyong kapital. Maaaring hindi nababagay sa lahat ang mga produktong naka-leverage. Mangyaring isaalang-alang ang aming Pahayag sa Risk.