FX stabilises after hit from surging dollar



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-FX stabilises after hit from surging dollar</title></head><body>

By Alan Charlish

WARSAW, Feb 7 (Reuters) -Central European currencies stabilised on Tuesday, as a rally in the dollar paused and attention turned to interest rate decisions in Poland and Romania.

The dollar firmed on Monday after strong data from the U.S. jobs market suggested interest rates in the world's largest economy will stay higher for longer, at a time when central European policymakers look to have brought their tightening cycles to an end.

The Polish and Romanian central banks are both expected to keep their main interest rates on hold at 6.75% and 7.00% respectively this week.

"The past session brought a strong sell-off of emerging market currencies, with those from central and eastern Europe among the biggest fallers," PKO BP analysts said in a note.

"The increase in volatility on risky assets causes the fluctuation band for pairs with the zloty to expand, and in the case of EUR/PLN it means that the test below the level of 4.70 was unsuccessful and the pair is moving in the short term in the range of 4.70-4.75."

At 0931 GMT the Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.05% weaker against the euro at 4.7480, while the Romanian leu EURRON= was 0.09% weaker at 4.9025.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= firmed 0.75% to 392.70.

"It seems that the market is now generating some kind of correction... now it seems we reached a level where investors and corporate clients are jumping in," said Peter Virovacz, senior economist at ING in Hungary.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was flat at 23.856, remaining unmoved by a weaker-than-expected reading for retail sales in December.

"People left 7% more money in stores but took away 7.3% less goods," said Creditas bank economist Petr Dufek. "High inflation, the associated decline in real incomes and not very optimistic consumer sentiment will be a hindrance to shopping in the first half of this year as well."





CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1031 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




bid

close

change

in 2023

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

23.8560

23.8570

+0.00%

+1.27%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

392.7000

395.6500

+0.75%

+1.72%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.7480

4.7455

-0.05%

-1.23%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9025

4.8980

-0.09%

+0.82%

EURHRK=

Croatian kuna

EURHRK=

7.5330

7.5365

+0.05%

+0.05%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.3500

117.3450

-0.00%

-0.04%


Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2023

.PX

Prague

.PX

1355.09

1353.8800

+0.09%

+12.76%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

44943.98

44793.85

+0.34%

+2.63%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

1869.93

1864.76

+0.28%

+4.35%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

12343.87

12284.63

+0.48%

+5.83%

.SBITOP

Ljubljana

.SBITOP

1156.20

1156.69

-0.04%

+10.24%

.CRBEX

Zagreb

.CRBEX

2129.39

2132.96

-0.17%

+710.36%

.BELEX15

Belgrade

.BELEX15

863.15

865.18

-0.23%

+4.67%

.SOFIX

Sofia

.SOFIX

612.92

612.00

+0.15%

+1.90%











Yield

Yield

Spread

Daily




(bid)

change

vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

5.7060

-0.0490

+310bps

-5bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.8760

-0.0220

+258bps

-3bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.4720

-0.0100

+218bps

-2bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

6.0450

0.0750

+344bps

+7bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.8080

-0.0170

+351bps

-2bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.9140

0.0350

+362bps

+2bps



FORWARD








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

7.14

6.83

6.20

7.20


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

14.30

12.56

11.06

16.05


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

6.96

6.86

6.45

6.91


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************






Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw, Krisztina Than in Budapest, Jan Lopatka in Prague; Editing by Sharon Singleton

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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