FX stabilises after hit from surging dollar
By Alan Charlish
WARSAW, Feb 7 (Reuters) -Central European currencies stabilised on Tuesday, as a rally in the dollar paused and attention turned to interest rate decisions in Poland and Romania.
The dollar firmed on Monday after strong data from the U.S. jobs market suggested interest rates in the world's largest economy will stay higher for longer, at a time when central European policymakers look to have brought their tightening cycles to an end.
The Polish and Romanian central banks are both expected to keep their main interest rates on hold at 6.75% and 7.00% respectively this week.
"The past session brought a strong sell-off of emerging market currencies, with those from central and eastern Europe among the biggest fallers," PKO BP analysts said in a note.
"The increase in volatility on risky assets causes the fluctuation band for pairs with the zloty to expand, and in the case of EUR/PLN it means that the test below the level of 4.70 was unsuccessful and the pair is moving in the short term in the range of 4.70-4.75."
At 0931 GMT the Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.05% weaker against the euro at 4.7480, while the Romanian leu EURRON= was 0.09% weaker at 4.9025.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= firmed 0.75% to 392.70.
"It seems that the market is now generating some kind of correction... now it seems we reached a level where investors and corporate clients are jumping in," said Peter Virovacz, senior economist at ING in Hungary.
The Czech crown EURCZK= was flat at 23.856, remaining unmoved by a weaker-than-expected reading for retail sales in December.
"People left 7% more money in stores but took away 7.3% less goods," said Creditas bank economist Petr Dufek. "High inflation, the associated decline in real incomes and not very optimistic consumer sentiment will be a hindrance to shopping in the first half of this year as well."
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1031 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
bid | close | change | in 2023 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 23.8560 | 23.8570 | +0.00% | +1.27% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 392.7000 | 395.6500 | +0.75% | +1.72% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.7480 | 4.7455 | -0.05% | -1.23% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9025 | 4.8980 | -0.09% | +0.82% |
EURHRK= | Croatian kuna | EURHRK= | 7.5330 | 7.5365 | +0.05% | +0.05% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.3500 | 117.3450 | -0.00% | -0.04% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2023 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1355.09 | 1353.8800 | +0.09% | +12.76% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 44943.98 | 44793.85 | +0.34% | +2.63% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 1869.93 | 1864.76 | +0.28% | +4.35% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 12343.87 | 12284.63 | +0.48% | +5.83% |
.SBITOP | Ljubljana | .SBITOP | 1156.20 | 1156.69 | -0.04% | +10.24% |
.CRBEX | Zagreb | .CRBEX | 2129.39 | 2132.96 | -0.17% | +710.36% |
.BELEX15 | Belgrade | .BELEX15 | 863.15 | 865.18 | -0.23% | +4.67% |
.SOFIX | Sofia | .SOFIX | 612.92 | 612.00 | +0.15% | +1.90% |
Yield | Yield | Spread | Daily | |||
(bid) | change | vs Bund | change in | |||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 5.7060 | -0.0490 | +310bps | -5bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 4.8760 | -0.0220 | +258bps | -3bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.4720 | -0.0100 | +218bps | -2bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 6.0450 | 0.0750 | +344bps | +7bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.8080 | -0.0170 | +351bps | -2bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.9140 | 0.0350 | +362bps | +2bps |
FORWARD | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 7.14 | 6.83 | 6.20 | 7.20 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 14.30 | 12.56 | 11.06 | 16.05 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 6.96 | 6.86 | 6.45 | 6.91 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw, Krisztina Than in Budapest, Jan Lopatka in Prague; Editing by Sharon Singleton
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