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XM Analysis

EURCAD hovers around 1.4500 area as volatility drops SMAs’ convergence points to a sizeable move soon Momentum indicators send mixed messages EURCAD is trying to record its third straight green candle as it continues to hover around the 1.4500 area. The bears remain in control and enjoying an almost 4% gain since November 21, 2023 peak of 1.5043 as volatility has been dropping aggressively lately.

Canadian labour data in sight but market prepping for next week’s BoC meeting – Forex News Preview

With the July Bank of Canada meeting gradually creeping into the traders’ minds, this week’s calendar is unlikely to tip the balance in favour of another rate hike or a rate pause. Nevertheless, the loonie might enjoy a boost as the euro/loonie pair is trading very close to its 2023 lows. Market split on the next BoC decision The focus this week will understandably be on the US labour market data and their likely impact on the end-of-July Fed meeting.

Technical Analysis – EURCAD heads towards its winter lows

EURCAD is marking its sixth week of losses, falling by more than 4.0% since creating a bearish double top structure around a two-year high of 1.5111. The pair is currently eyeing the key base of 1.4257, where the price pivoted higher in January and February. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upleg is also making this area important to watch ahead of the BoC rate decision due today at 14:00 GMT.

Technical Analysis – EURCAD approaches 100-day SMA as bearish pressures ease

EURCAD has steadied in the 1.4675 region following the sharp pullback from around the 1.5100 level where a double top was formed. However, despite the bearish signal, the pair remains above its long-term moving averages and the momentum indicators are pointing to an easing of the selling pressure. The fast stochastic (%K) has just crossed above the slow stochastic (%D), though they both remain within the oversold area, while the RSI has flatlined slightly below the 50 neutral level.

Daily Market Comment – Dollar extends fall as CPI data and Fed minutes corroborate pivot bets

Headline CPI rate drops by a full percentage point, core ticks up Investors still expect another 25bps hike, but maintain rate cut bets Fed minutes reveal that some officials considered pausing Dollar slips as investors continue to see rate cuts later this year The US dollar extended its slide against all the other major currencies yesterday after the March CPI data revealed that headline inflation in the US slowed by more than anticipated and after the minutes from the latest FOMC de

Will the Eurozone PMIs allow the ECB to continue raising rates? – Forex News Preview

Following the market turbulence triggered last week by concerns about the stability of the global banking system, investors have been scratching their heads to figure out how central banks may proceed henceforth. The ECB disappointed those expecting a smaller-than-telegraphed hike at its last meeting, turning the spotlight to incoming data for its future decisions.

Following a wild 10-day period with record-breaking moves, market participants and central bankers hope that the focus next week will return to the real economy. In the case of Canada, we get two significant pieces of data, CPI and retail sales, that under normal conditions would have the potential to determine the loonie's fate in the short-term.

ECB meeting: Is a 50bps hike still a done deal? – Forex News Preview

Following the sudden collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the US, investors have become increasingly concerned about the health of the banking system as borrowing costs continue to rise. While they have dramatically scaled back their bets with regards to the Fed’s future course of action, they are also doubting whether the ECB should proceed as aggressively as it signaled at its latest policy meeting.

Daily Market Comment – Dollar slides on Chinese data, euro awaits inflation numbers

Dollar slips as Chinese PMIs spark risk-on mood But pares losses after ISM manufacturing PMI data Euro traders await Eurozone inflation numbers Rising Fed hike bets hurt Wall Street Dollar drops on China PMIs, but Fed hike bets increase on ISM PMI The US dollar traded lower or unchanged on Wednesday, losing the most ground against the kiwi, the euro and the aussie in that order.

Euro traders lock gaze on Eurozone inflation data – Forex News Preview

With economic data suggesting that the Euro area may have dodged a severe recession and underlying inflation not showing any signs of slowing yet, investors have dramatically raised their ECB hike bets. Ergo, this week, they may be sitting on the edge of their seats in anticipation of Thursday’s preliminary CPI data as they try to figure out whether the ECB will proceed with the telegraphed 50bps hike or a bigger increment at the upcoming meeting.

Week Ahead – US ISM PMIs and Eurozone CPI data enter the spotlight

Following a relatively busy week, the calendar becomes lighter next week. However, that doesn’t mean there are no important economic releases on the agenda. On the contrary, with market participants trying to figure out how many more rate hikes the US economy can withstand, they may pay extra attention to the ISM PMIs for February. Also, with most ECB policymakers arguing that more 50bps worth of rate hikes are needed to tame inflation, the Eurozone’s preliminary CPI numbers for February wil

Loonie would love a stronger CPI, but not the Bank of Canada – Forex News Preview

With the next BoC meeting scheduled in just two weeks, loonie followers will have the chance to evaluate the current economic state. The deceleration in inflation pressures has been the global theme in the past three months providing significant breathing space to both households and governments. Will this week’s data confirm this recent trend or could the BoC be forced to consider an even tighter monetary policy ahead?

Technical Analysis – EURCAD builds uptrend; overbought signals strengthen

EURCAD has rallied by almost 10% since the plunge to a nine-and-a-half year low of 1.2874 in August, retracing more than half of its 2022 downtrend. On Tuesday the price accelerated above a bullish channel to mark a new higher high at 1.4125, but it soon lost momentum to close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 downtrend.  With the stochastics showing bearish divergence and the RSI having reached its 2020 top in the overbought territory, a downside correction looks increasing

Technical Analysis – EURCAD confused ahead of key central bank decisions

EURCAD has been trending downwards since the strong rejection near February’s descending trendline and the 1.3243 level at the start of the month, while also failing to attract enough buying interest to climb back above its simple moving averages (SMA) in the four-hour chart over the past few days. The technical signals remain neutral-to-bearish ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement due at 14:00 GMT today given the RSI’s sideways trajectory marginally below its 50 neutral mark

Technical Analysis – EURCAD imprisoned in a very narrow range

EURCAD has been trapped in an extremely narrow range between 1.4500 and 1.4400 for a week now. The 50-period moving average (MA) on the four-hour chart is halting any advances, while the lower Bollinger band is preventing any declines.  With volatility so low, the momentum oscillators cannot provide any directional signals. Both the RSI and the MACD are stuck near their neutral levels.  If the bulls get back in the driver’s seat and manage to push above the 50-period MA, their next target

US Open Note – Euro remains afloat above 1.14 after impressive NFP data; oil fires up

Euro survives NFP surprise The euro had been dancing to the ECB’s hawkish beats on Friday until the US nonfarm payroll report came to put the brakes on its dynamic rally, but the common currency managed to remain afloat. Following a bitter contraction in ADP private employment figures, analysts believed that their forecasts for a 150k growth were too optimistic for the month of January.

Technical Analysis – EURCAD rockets to descending 200-day SMA

EURCAD’s bullish demeanour has strengthened significantly as the pair recently surged from the more than 5-year low of 1.4100 and is now tackling the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.4600. The longer-term 100- and 200-day SMAs endorse the broader bearish trend, while the upturn in the 50-day SMA, is reflecting the bullish correction in the pair.

US Open Note – Inflation hits its fastest pace in four decades

Powell calms the markets Fears that the US economic expansion could be jeopardized by tighter monetary policy have been alleviated for now, as the Fed Chair Jerome Powell reassured investors that the central bank would bring down inflation without derailing the US economic recovery. Powell also avoided a comment on the timing of rate hikes and stressed that no decision has yet been made regarding the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet.

US Open Note – Stocks set for opening gains; Powell’s testimony in focus

Powell testimony in focus; Bundesbank’s new chief warns on inflation Markets are anticipating Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s renomination hearing in Congress later today, waiting to find out his current views on inflation ahead of the CPI data release on Wednesday. In his prepared remarks, Powell vowed to bring down inflation and warned markets that the ongoing post-pandemic expansion might look different from what they have witnessed before.

US Open Note - Will the Fed’s policy decision rattle the markets?

FOMC decision in the spotlight Markets are on edge as the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision for 2021 will hit the markets today at 19:00 GMT. The 10-year US treasury yield ticked higher ahead of the event, while the US dollar remains relatively unchanged. The central bank is widely expected to announce its plan to dial back its bond-purchases program at a faster pace and signal at least two rate hikes for next year, which could boost Treasury yields and the greenback.


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