XM Research

Week Ahead – Slower rate hikes eyed as Fed, ECB, BoE and SNB clash

A turbulent year is fast drawing to a close and the most crucial week for central banks is upon us. The Federal Reserve will be headlining the last rate-setting decisions of 2022 that will also cover those of the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank.

Technical Analysis – USDJPY advances after the rebound off the 200-day SMA

USDJPY recently bounced off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) after the fall towards the three-and-half-month low of 133.

Daily Market Comment – Stocks lose altitude, dollar reawakens after solid US data

ISM services survey signals US economy is still running hot Traders step up bets on Fed terminal rate, boosting dollar RBA delivers no surprises, yen retreats as US yields spike Inflation strikes back Inflation concerns returned to haunt financial markets on Monday, after a closely watched survey suggested that US economic activity gathered momentum heading into year-end, piling more pressure on the Fed ahead of next week’s rate decision.

FX year ahead 2023: Recessions and trend reversals

The US dollar steamrolled every other major currency this year, capitalizing on a perfect storm of widening interest rate differentials, safe-haven flows, and an absence of attractive alternatives.

Daily Market Comment – NFP awaited as Fed rate hike bets cool, dollar plunges

Dollar resumes slide as US yields tumble after soft inflation and PMI data But Wall Street rally takes a breather amid some caution ahead of NFP report Yen surges to 3½-month high, weighs on Nikkei, as BoJ speculation intensifies ISM PMI revives hopes of early Fed pivot Treasury yields slipped sharply on Thursday, hitting multi-week lows, after closely watched gauges for the United States pointed to a slowing economy.

Daily Market Comment – Dollar tumbles as Powell appears less hawkish than expected

Powell appears less hawkish than he did at the latest Fed meeting Dollar records its worst month in 14 years Wall Street rallies, Nasdaq gains the most Eurozone inflation slows by more than forecast Dollar falls sharply after Powell fails to push back against pivot bets The US dollar tumbled against all the other major currencies on Wednesday and continued to drift south today after Fed Chair Powell failed to sound as hawkish as expected.

Technical Analysis – USDJPY lacks bullish motives near November’s low

USDJPY shifted to the sidelines following last week’s aggressive downfall from the 142.00 area, consolidating its losses between 139.

Technical Analysis – USDJPY oversold near November’s lows; risks remain

USDJPY paused its latest decline near November’s low of 137.66 before climbing back into the 138.00 territory on Monday.

Daily Market Comment – Risk-on takes a hit as China protests spark unease

Yen jumps, yields slip as anti-lockdown protests in China dent sentiment Oil slumps to one-year low amid rising concerns about Chinese demand Stocks start the week in the red as NFP and other crucial data eyed Growing protests in China rattle markets Risk assets took a knock at the start of the week as worries about instability in China and how the country’s unyielding zero-Covid policy might further blight the outlook led investors to search for safety.

Technical Analysis – USDJPY trades flat as latest rebound falters

USDJPY has been in a prolonged uptrend for almost two years, crossing above its historical resistance levels to post a 32-year high of 151.

Daily Market Comment – Dollar stands tall, yen resumes its decline

Dollar shines, yen slides as US yields march higher Oil recovers on Saudi signals, stocks chop around RBNZ to roll out another rate increase, but how big?  Dollar kicks back Another round of hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and a flight to safety resulting from China’s virus outbreaks propelled the world’s reserve currency higher as the new week kicked off.

Technical Analysis – USDJPY bears take a breather after 2½-month low

USDJPY showed some significant improvement in the previous 4-hour session, extending the bullish structure above the 140.

Daily Market Comment – Markets steady despite Fed pivot hopes disappearing over the horizon

Dollar bolstered but gains limited after Bullard calls for Fed rate to hit at least 5% Higher Treasury yields pressure Wall Street but rebound already underway Yen shrugs off Japanese CPI jump, pound wobbles on gloomy UK budget Fed ratchets up hawkish rhetoric The bombardment of hawkish talk from Fed officials continued to set the tone on Friday, as the week ends on a somewhat more sombre tone than from how it started.

Will Japan’s CPI inflation help the yen's recovery? – Forex News Preview

Japan will update its CPI inflation data on Thursday at 23:30 GMT, with investors projecting a bold acceleration in the pace of price increases.

Daily Market Comment – Hawkish Fed, strong data ease dollar’s pain; pound buoyant ahead of budget

Dollar regains some footing as Fed officials again rule out early pivot Upbeat retail sales, warning from chip makers also dampen sentiment, stocks slip Pound extends gains despite fears Autumn statement will usher in austerity era Fed dashes hopes of a pivot The US dollar was steadier but still near this week’s lows on Thursday following the Fed’s latest concerted effort to extinguish market speculation of an imminent dovish pivot.

Technical Analysis – USDJPY consolidates above previous lows

USDJPY is moving sideways after the selling interest that started in the preceding week. The drop beneath the long-term ascending trend line is shifting the market to neutral with the technical oscillators endorsing the previous negative movement.

Daily Market Comment – Fed’s Waller tempers rate pause bets, relief rally cools

Dollar and yields edge up after Waller says Fed not done with rate increases But stocks evade sharp selloff as China property bailout adds to optimism Cryptos off lows despite FTX hack, gold pares gains, oil stays cautious Fed dampens hopes of early pause The US dollar got off to a steadier start on Monday and stocks were mixed after a top Fed official played down the significance of last week’s softer-than-expected CPI report in overnight comments.

Week Ahead – Spotlight turns to pound and non-US data after dollar bruising

After another US inflation surprise, CPI data will be dominating the agenda in most other markets in the coming week, shifting the focus away somewhat from the greenback.

Is the Japanese yen setting up for a trend reversal?

Interest rate differentials have crushed the Japanese yen. The currency is down 18% against the US dollar this year, sinking to its lowest levels in three decades.

Daily Market Comment – Inflation cooldown slams dollar, turbocharges stocks

Traders dial back Fed bets as US inflation cools down Dollar loses its shine, stocks and gold back in vogue Yen capitalizes on the dollar’s troubles, reversal time? Inflation relief A bombshell inflation report from the United States sent a wave of relief across global markets yesterday, sending the dollar into a tailspin and igniting a stunning rally in risky assets amid bets that the Fed is about to dial down its rate increases.


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