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USDCAD


Badania XM

A September Fed rate cut could lead to an easing spree during end-2024

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.
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Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD trades sideways as 200-SMA provides support

USDCAD is rangebound in the past few sessions The 200-day SMA caps the pair’s downside Momentum indicators are negatively tilted USDCAD had been hovering around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the past two months, appearing incapable of clearing this hurdle. This repeated inability triggered a decisive break below the 50-day SMA on July 3, with the pair trading undecided since then, supported by the 200-day SMA.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD tumbles towards 200-day SMA

USDCAD falls beneath uptrend line within trading range RSI and MACD tick down USDCAD is plunging well below the long-term descending trend line, with immediate strong support coming from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near the 1.3590 level. The RSI indicator is falling beneath the 50 level with strong momentum; however, the MACD oscillator is moving beneath its trigger and zero lines, losing some steam.
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Canada’s unemployment rate likely to rise to more than 2-year high Loonie gains some territory in the beginning of the week Employment report due on Friday at 12:30 GMT Canada employment report may guide the BoC's next policy decision Friday is the day that Canada will release employment figures, which may prove to be very important for the policy decision that the Bank of Canada will take in July.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURGBP, USDJPY, USDCAD

French elections help euro to recoup some losses Friday’s NFP report is the week’s main driver as USDJPY holds near highs Canadian employment report next in focus with USDCAD in range French and UK elections --> EURGBP The euro experienced an increase on Monday following the initial round of France's election, which resulted in the far-right party taking the lead, albeit by a smaller margin than anticipated.
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Week Ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too

France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the euro in June as the resurgence in popularity for far-right parties sparked jitters in financial markets.
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Market Comment – Stocks’ asthmatic reaction keeps dollar in demand

US stocks edge higher amidst quiet newsflow French elections are around the corner Aussie and loonie benefit from hotter CPI reports Yen remains under pressure Dollar records small gains against the euro The US dollar is trying to find its footing as the market prepares for Thursday’s presidential debate between Trump and Biden and Friday’s PCE inflation report.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

US Core PCE index could affect EURUSD’s performance Canadian CPI expected to fall; USDCAD still falling AUDUSD may remain in range after Australian CPI US Core PCE price index --> EURUSD The main focus for traders this week will be the US core PCE price index for May, which is coming out on Friday. Also, the personal income and spending data and the final GDP figure will be released this week.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD bears could remain in control

USDCAD eases below 1.3700; could attract new sellers in short-term Next support could emerge within 1.3600-1.3622 territory US S&P Global PMIs, Canadian retail sales on the agenda   USDCAD has been tiptoeing to the downside for five consecutive trading days, increasing speculation that some stability could soon occur. The technical picture, however, suggests that the bears have more to accomplish.
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Week Ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight   Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the softer-than-expected CPI numbers a few hours ahead of last week’s decision did not convince market participants about officials’ intentions.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD remains bullish with weak momentum

USDCAD fails to extend above 1.3785 Stochastics suggest bearish retracement USDCAD is still developing above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs), which are ready for a bullish crossover, and above the medium-term uptrend line. Technically, the MACD oscillator is moving sideways above the zero level; however, the stochastic oscillator is indicating a negative movement as it posted a bearish cross with %K and %D lines in the overbought region.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD still above uptrend line

USDCAD looks neutral in short-term ahead Canadian employment report MACD and stochastics move horizontally USDCAD is moving back and forth of the 20- and the 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), finding strong support at the medium-term ascending trend line. Momentum oscillators are confirming the sideways movement in the market. The MACD is losing steam near its trigger and zero lines, while the stochastic is flattening within the 20 and 80 level, failing to show any direction signs.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD holds within recent range

USDCAD constrained within a range as US & Canadian jobs data awaited at 12:30 GMT Bulls need a rally above 1.3775; bears could take control below 1.3578   USDCAD has been swinging sideways over the past two weeks between 1.3740 and 1.3600, unable to reverse the short-term downtrend from April’s peak of 1.3844. The technical signals are currently uncertain, lacking a clear indication as the RSI continues to hover near its neutral mark of 50 and the stochastic oscillator mai
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Market Comment – Fed rate cut bets grow but dollar steadies, BoC to likely cut

Soft US data continues to pile up, boosting Fed rate cut bets But dollar on steadier footing ahead of ISM services PMI Bank of Canada expected to cut rates today, loonie slips Oil slide deepens, stocks struggle for direction All eyes on ISM services PMI after soft data run After repeated setbacks, the needle finally seems to be shifting for the Fed to start cutting rates soon, with bets for a September move gaining significant traction in recent days.
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Canada’s unemployment rate likely to rise to new 2-year high BoC on Wednesday expects to cut rates Loonie gains some ground ahead of important releases Employment report due on Friday at 12:30 GMT The focus of considerable attention has been on the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve as their battle to reduce interest rates approaches its peak.
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Market Comment – Market craves weaker US data

Monday's weaker ISM survey pushes the dollar lower Euro/dollar rallies to a 3-month high ahead of the ECB BoC could announce a rate cut tomorrow; loonie may suffer Oil tanks as bearish factors multiply Dollar gets on the backfoot A rather busy week for the US economy started on the back foot for the US dollar yesterday as the ISM manufacturing survey edged lower in the sub-50 territory, pointing to a deteriorating outlook for this sector.
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Dollar traders lock gaze on NFP report – Preview

Fed sticks to ‘higher for longer’ mentality PMIs pose downside risks to nonfarm payrolls But point to sticky wage growth The data comes out on Friday, at 12:30 GMT US inflation slows but Fed signals patience Although the latest CPI data revealed that inflation in the US has resumed its downtrend, Fed officials have been continuously signaling patience about when they may start lowering interest rates, with some of the ultra-hawks, like Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashka
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD

USDJPY continues to trade with resilience near April’s bar as forecasts point to robust US jobs data EURUSD holds within caution area as the ECB prepares to cut interest rates USDCAD directionless despite a probable rate cut in Canada this week   Nonfarm payrolls, ISM business PMIs --> USDJPY The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before September according to futures markets, and although the wolves of Wall Street are not fond of this scenario, the US dollar ca
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Bank of Canada edges closer to rate cut but will it be in June? – Preview

Canadian inflation has been moving in right direction this year Investors have assigned a more than 80% probability of a June cut But will the BoC move before the Fed; decision is due Wednesday, 13:45 GMT The race to cut may be reaching the final hurdle As the race to cut rates reaches fever pitch, much of the attention has been centred on the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
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