FX muted as markets eye Polish cenbank meeting, Hungarian CPI data
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Central European currencies were range-bound on Monday as investors looked ahead to a rate-setting meeting of the central bank in Poland and the publication of key inflation data in Hungary, both scheduled for later in the week.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= eased 0.15% to 4.6920, trading in its recent range as investors eyed a meeting of the monetary policy council on Wednesday where a Reuters poll of analysts forecast the key interest rate to remain at 6.75%.
The National Bank of Poland has held fire at its last two meetings, as the argument for stable rates was boosted by data showing a decrease in inflation in November, as well as third-quarter GDP data that pointed to a slowdown in private consumption.
Governor Adam Glapinski will hold a press conference at 1400 GMT on Thursday.
"We expect the current wait-and-see attitude to be maintained, which is consistent with the market scenario and should not translate into volatility of both the Polish currency and treasury bonds," Bank Millennium wrote.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was 0.18% higher and trading at 409.50 per euro in thin trade as investors eyed CPI data due to be published on Thursday.
"The first thing that could really move the forint's rate this week is inflation," an FX trader in Budapest said.
"If it overshoots expectations, that could weaken the forint."
A Reuters poll expects headline inflation to rise to an annual 22.2% in November from 21.1% in October.
Annual inflation was now primarily driven by a surge in food prices, where further "unpleasant surprises" could be on the cards in coming months, the central bank said last month.
Data showed on Monday that October calendar-adjusted retail sales edged up by an annual 0.6%, down from a 3% increase in September as the toll of high inflation hit consumer activity in Hungary.
In the Czech Republic, real wages fell by nearly 10% for a second quarter as inflation eats into paychecks.
Czech central bank Governor Ales Michl said on Monday that drop in commodity prices could signal a slowdown in the world economy that would help ease inflation.
The Czech crown EURCZK= edged up 0.04% to trade at 24.380 versus the common currency.
Stocks in the region were mixed, with Warsaw .WIG20 adding 1.42%, while Budapest .BUX lost 1.64%.
CEE
SNAPSHOT AT
MARKETS
1040
CET
CURRENCI
ES
Latest
Previo Daily Change
us
bid
close change in
2022 EURCZK Czech
EURCZK=
24.3800 24.390 +0.04 +2.02 =
crown
0
%
% EURHUF Hungary EURHUF= 409.5000 410.25 +0.18 -9.79% =
forint
00
% EURPLN Polish
EURPLN=
4.6920 4.6850 -0.15% -2.15% =
zloty
EURRON Romania EURRON=
4.9230 4.9201 -0.06% +0.51 =
n leu
% EURHRK Croatia EURHRK=
7.5500 7.5495 -0.01% -0.43% =
n kuna
EURRSD Serbian EURRSD= 117.2000 117.31 +0.10 +0.32 =
dinar
50
%
%
Note:
calculate
1800
daily
d from
CET
change
Latest
Previo Daily Change
us
close change in
2022 .PX
Prague
.PX
1208.42 1198.6 +0.82
200
% .BUX
Budapes .BUX
45053.80 45804. -1.64% -11.17
t
29
% .WIG20 Warsaw
.WIG20
1758.07 1733.4 +1.42 -22.45
6
%
% .BETI Buchare .BETI
12118.09 11924. +1.62 -7.22%
st
70
% .SBITO Ljublja .SBITOP
1073.19 1071.5 +0.15 -14.52 P
na
4
%
% .CRBEX Zagreb
.CRBEX
1916.29 1919.4 -0.16% -7.84%
4
.BELEX Belgrad <.BELEX15
811.56 813.97 -0.30% -1.12% 15
e
>
.SOFIX Sofia
.SOFIX
606.05 605.43 +0.10 -4.66%
%
Yield
Yield Spread Daily
(bid)
change vs
change
Bund
in
Czech
spread
Republi
c
CZ2YT=
<CZ2YT=RR
5.5920 0.0070 +347b +0bps RR
2-year >
ps CZ5YT=
<CZ5YT=RR
4.9080 0.0060 +303b +0bps RR
5-year >
ps CZ10YT
<CZ10YT=R
4.6560 0.0170 +281b +2bps =RR
10-year R>
ps
Poland
PL2YT=
<PL2YT=RR
6.7920 0.0060 +467b +0bps RR
2-year >
ps PL5YT=
<PL5YT=RR
6.6800 0.0290 +480b +2bps RR
5-year >
ps PL10YT
<PL10YT=R
6.4150 0.0010 +457b +1bps =RR
10-year R>
ps
FORWARD
3x6
6x9
9x12
3M
interb
ank
Czech
CZKFRA <
7.00
6.55
5.99
7.26
Rep
PRIBOR=>
Hungary HUFFRA <
14.16 12.72 11.81 15.46
BUBOR=>
Poland
PLNFRA <
7.16
7.00
6.61
7.24
WIBOR=>
Note:
are for
FRA
ask
quotes prices
************************************
**************************
Additional reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips
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