Japanese firms see global inflation, recession as major risks in fiscal 2023
By Rocky Swift
TOKYO, March 24 (Reuters) -Japanese firms see a continuation of global inflation and the chance of worldwide recession as the main risks they face in fiscal 2023, according to a Reuters monthly poll.
Below are the questions and answers in the poll, conducted from March 8-17 for Reuters by Nikkei Research. Answers are denoted in percentages.
Percentage totals for a given question may not come to exactly 100%, due to rounding. The "polled" and "replied" figures are in absolute terms. A total of 493 companies responded to the latest survey.
1. What do you view as risks to your business in fiscal 2023? (Pick as many as apply)
Continuation of global inflation | Global recession | Downside risks to China's economy | U.S. recession | Rising interest rates as BOJ normalises policy | Weak yen | Strong yen | |
All | 82% | 59% | 28% | 20% | 18% | 35% | 7% |
Manufacturers | 81% | 67% | 37% | 26% | 12% | 33% | 11% |
Non-manufacturers | 84% | 51% | 17% | 14% | 26% | 36% | 3% |
(continued)
Geopolitical risks, e.g. North Korea, Taiwan Strait | Pandemic | US-China confrontation | Other | Polled | Replied | |
All | 30% | 13% | 29% | 4% | 400 | 246 |
Manufacturers | 33% | 7% | 38% | 3% | 200 | 129 |
Non-manufacturers | 27% | 20% | 19% | 5% | 200 | 117 |
2. What is your expected dollar/yen exchange rate for fiscal 2023? (Pick one)
119 or below | 120-125 | 126-130 | 131-135 | 136-140 | 141-145 | 146-150 | 151 or higher | Polled | Replied | |
All | 0% | 9% | 21% | 48% | 20% | 1% | 0 | 0 | 400 | 234 |
Manufacturers | 1% | 8% | 25% | 49% | 16% | 1% | 0 | 0 | 200 | 122 |
Non-manufacturers | 0% | 10% | 17% | 47% | 23% | 2% | 0 | 1 | 200 | 112 |
3. How would you prefer the yen to move, compared to the 136 level as of March 1? (Pick one)
Moderate yen weakness | Moderate yen strength | Significant yen weakness | Significant yen strength | Neither way | Polled | Replied | |
All | 14% | 69% | 0 | 2% | 15% | 400 | 239 |
Manufacturers | 16% | 66% | 0 | 2% | 17% | 200 | 125 |
Non-manufacturers | 11% | 72% | 1% | 3% | 13% | 247 | 114 |
4. What is your expectation for the rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in fiscal 2023? (Pick one)
1% or less | 1.1-1.5% | 1.6-2.0% | 2.1-2.5% | 2.6-3.0% | 3.1-3.5% | 3.6% or higher | Polled | Replied | |
All | 4% | 17% | 34% | 22% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 400 | 229 |
Manufacturers | 4% | 15% | 38% | 20% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 200 | 117 |
Non-manufacturers | 4% | 20% | 29% | 25% | 15% | 4% | 4% | 200 | 112 |
5. Is your company implementing or considering any measures to raise its price-to-book ratio (PBR) to 1 or higher? (Pick one)
Implementing | Considering | Neither | Polled | Replied | |
All | 17% | 32% | 51% | 400 | 241 |
Manufacturers | 18% | 37% | 44% | 200 | 126 |
Non-manufacturers | 17% | 26% | 57% | 200 | 115 |
6. For those who answered "implementing" or "considering", what are the specific measures? (Pick as many as apply)
Share buybacks | Dividend increase | Policies to improve ROE, e.g., increasing leverage | Investor relations, communication | Other | Polled | Replied | |
All | 48% | 38% | 66% | 60% | 3% | 400 | 117 |
Manufacturers | 41% | 32% | 72% | 59% | 0 | 200 | 69 |
Non-manufacturers | 58% | 46% | 56% | 60% | 8% | 200 | 48 |
7. What reasons do you think led to about half of traded Japanese firms with PBRs below 1? (Pick as many as apply)
Economic downturn in Japan | Low popularity of Japan stocks | Monetary policy failure | Fiscal policy failure | Growth strategy failure | Lack of forward-looking investment by companies | Unique structural factors, e.g. cross-shareholding | Other | Polled | Replied | |
All | 62% | 48% | 12% | 14% | 41% | 39% | 22% | 4% | 400 | 237 |
Manufacturers | 62% | 45% | 8% | 11% | 47% | 43% | 21% | 4% | 200 | 124 |
Non-manufacturers | 62% | 51% | 16% | 16% | 35% | 35% | 22% | 4% | 200 | 113 |
8. Will you increase capital expenditures in fiscal 2023 compared to the previous year? (Pick one)
Yes | No | Keep unchanged | Polled | Replied | |
All | 44% | 15% | 41% | 400 | 245 |
Manufacturers | 44% | 19% | 37% | 200 | 129 |
Non-manufacturers | 45% | 10% | 45% | 200 | 116 |
9. For those who answered "yes", what spending do you plan to focus on? (Pick as many as apply)
Digitalisation | Labour saving and efficiency measures | Increase production facilities | Equipment renewal | Decarbonisation | Strengthening procurement base | Establish training facilities | Other | Polled | Replied | |
All | 50% | 41% | 49% | 59% | 19% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 400 | 109 |
Manufacturers | 40% | 49% | 54% | 58% | 23% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 200 | 57 |
Non-manufacturers | 62% | 33% | 42% | 60% | 15% | 0 | 0 | 10% | 200 | 52 |
10. How are current business conditions at your company? (Pick one)
Good | Not so good | Bad | Polled | Replied | |
All | 22% | 64% | 13% | 400 | 252 |
Manufacturers | 14% | 69% | 17% | 200 | 132 |
Non-manufacturers | 31% | 59% | 10% | 200 | 120 |
11. How do you expect business conditions to be by the end of June? (Pick one)
Good | Not so good | Bad | Polled | Replied | |
All | 21% | 71% | 8% | 400 | 252 |
Manufacturers | 18% | 73% | 8% | 200 | 132 |
Non-manufacturers | 24% | 68% | 8% | 200 | 120 |
Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Jan Harvey
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