The future might be blue
U.S. equity index futures green: Nasdaq 100 up ~1.1%
U.S. initial jobless claims 186k vs 205k est
U.S. Q4 advance GDP 2.9% vs 2.6% est; core PCE 3.9% vs 4% est
U.S. Dec durable goods 5.6% vs 2.5% est; ex-trans -0.1% vs -0.2% est
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.6%
Dollar, bitcoin rise; gold down, crude up ~2%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.48%
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THE FUTURE MIGHT BE BLUE (0901 EST/1401 GMT)
The primary way to move low-carbon hydrogen from production sources to market is going to be ammonia, as hydrogen is expensive to transport, given its low energy density and difficulty in liquefaction, says HSBC.
One way to make low-carbon hydrogen is to build green hydrogen projects, powered by renewable energy, while another way to achieve it would be - to make ammonia from natural gas and then capture the carbon emissions, which is ‘blue’ ammonia.
While conventional ammonia production emits carbon dioxide(CO2) if it is made with fossil fuel, during the production of blue ammonia any CO2 generated is captured and stored.
The high-return, capital-light route to monetizing gas via the hydrogen market is the reason behind the strong interest that Middle Eastern oil companies Saudi Aramco 2222.SE and QatarEnergy have in blue ammonia projects.
Last year, QatarEnergy said it will build the world's largest "blue" ammonia plant, which is expected to come online in the first quarter of 2026 and to produce 1.2 million tons per year. Aramco has plans to produce 11 million tons of blue ammonia by 2030, says the brokerage.
With integration into natural gas, QatarEnergy and Aramco do not take the risk of gas price volatility and thus have broad control over their production costs.
Also, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the U.S. improves the country's project economics, with companies receiving increased credits compared to earlier for CO2 capture.
"If blue ammonia were priced off the potential ‘pricing umbrella’ offered by green hydrogen (zero carbon emissions), then the returns on blue ammonia projects could potentially be exceptional, given capital costs that are a fraction of those for green hydrogen," says HSBC.
(Siddarth S)
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S&P 500 INDEX POISED TO PUSH HIGHER AFTER DATA DELUGE (0845 EST/1345 GMT)
In the wake of Thursday's 0830 EST U.S. data deluge, e-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 are gaining about 0.6%. This compares to a rise of about 0.5% just prior to the economic numbers coming out.
Action is choppy, but if this holds, the S&P 500 index .SPX, which ended Wednesday around 4,016, appears poised to open around 20 points higher. If so, it can once again attempt to overwhelm an important chart hurdle:
With such an opening pop, the SPX can battle above the 233-day moving average, which ended Wednesday at about 4,024. This Fibonacci-based moving average has capped strength on a closing basis since April 20.
Monday's high was at 4,039.31. The early-to-mid-December highs were at 4,100.51-4,100.96, and the mid-September high was at 4,119.28.
Meanwhile, continued gains can see the spread between the 50- and 200-DMAs narrow further. The spread ended Wednesday at just -22.23 points, or its tightest reading since March 15. If the 50-DMA can cross above the 200-DMA, it can signal a "golden cross," suggesting the potential for a major advance.
The 50- and 200-DMAs should come in around 3,939 and 3,959 on Thursday.
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR THURSDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0845 EST/1345 GMT - CLICK HERE
SPXcloseup01262023https://tmsnrt.rs/3HzbIOf
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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