US natgas up 1% on forecast for more demand, record exports to Mexico
Adds latest prices, tropical storm
June 2 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday on forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and record exports to Mexico.
The price increase came despite near record U.S. output and continued low amounts of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to maintenance.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 1.4 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $2.172 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest level since May 5.
That left the contract little changed for the week after it lost about 16% last week.
With growing interest in energy trading, open interest in NYMEX gas futures rose to 1.387 million contracts on Thursday, its highest number since September 2021.
In the spot market, meanwhile, low demand due to mild weather cut next-day gas prices for Friday at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana to $1.77 per mmBtu, their lowest price since October 2020.
In a reminder of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the Gulf of Mexico near Florida. The storm is expected to weaken over the next day or so as it heads south toward Cuba, taking it away from U.S. oil and gas infrastructure.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased to 102.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from a monthly record of 102.5 bcfd in May.
Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near through June 15 before turning warmer than normal from June 16-17.
Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 91.0 bcfd this week to 93.9 bcfd next week and 95.0 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns seasonally warmer, prompting power generators to start burning more gas to meet rising air conditioning use.
The demand forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.
U.S. exports to Mexico rose to 7.6 bcfd so far in June, up from 5.9 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.7 bcfd in June 2021.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 13.1 bcfd have risen so far in June, up from 13.0 bcfd in May. That was still well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's LNG.A Sabine Pass in Louisiana.
GLOBAL GAS PRICE COLLAPSE
Some analysts have questioned whether this year's gas price collapse in Europe and Asia could force U.S. exporters to cancel LNG cargoes this summer after mostly mild weather over the winter left massive amounts of gas in storage. In 2020, at least 175 LNG shipments were canceled due to weak demand.
But for now, most analysts say energy security concerns following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 should keep global gas prices high enough to sustain record U.S. LNG exports in 2023.
Gas was trading at a 25-month low of around $7 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and near a 24-month low of $9 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia JKMc1. That put both TTF and JKM down about 69% so far this year. NG/EU
U.S. gas futures, which are down about 52% so far this year, lag far behind global prices because the United States is the world's top producer with all the fuel it needs for domestic use, while capacity constraints prevent the country from exporting more LNG.
Week ended Jun 2 (Forecast)
Week ended May 26 (Actual)
Year ago Jun 2
Five-year average Jun 2
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2022
Five Year Average (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
U.S. GFS HDDs
U.S. GFS CDDs
U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
This Week Last Year
Five-Year Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
U.S. Imports from Canada
U.S. LNG Imports
Total U.S. Supply
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
U.S. Exports to Mexico
U.S. LNG Exports
U.S. Power Plant
U.S. Plant Fuel
U.S. Pipe Distribution
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
Total U.S. Consumption
Total U.S. Demand
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jun 2
Week ended May 26
Week ended May 19
Week ended May 12
Week ended May 5
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Paul Simao and David Evans
For Refinitiv type ENERGY in nEiko search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usages
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters nEiko terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SOL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SOL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: EMPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
Isenção de Responsabilidade: As entidades do XM Group proporcionam serviço de apenas-execução e acesso à nossa plataforma online de negociação, permitindo a visualização e/ou uso do conteúdo disponível no website ou através deste, o que não se destina a alterar ou a expandir o supracitado. Tal acesso e uso estão sempre sujeitos a: (i) Termos e Condições; (ii) Avisos de Risco; e (iii) Termos de Responsabilidade. Este, é desta forma, fornecido como informação generalizada. Particularmente, por favor esteja ciente que os conteúdos da nossa plataforma online de negociação não constituem solicitação ou oferta para iniciar qualquer transação nos mercados financeiros. Negociar em qualquer mercado financeiro envolve um nível de risco significativo de perda do capital.
Todo o material publicado na nossa plataforma de negociação online tem apenas objetivos educacionais/informativos e não contém — e não deve ser considerado conter — conselhos e recomendações financeiras, de negociação ou fiscalidade de investimentos, registo de preços de negociação, oferta e solicitação de transação em qualquer instrumento financeiro ou promoção financeira não solicitada direcionadas a si.
Qual conteúdo obtido por uma terceira parte, assim como o conteúdo preparado pela XM, tais como, opiniões, pesquisa, análises, preços, outra informação ou links para websites de terceiras partes contidos neste website são prestados "no estado em que se encontram", como um comentário de mercado generalizado e não constitui conselho de investimento. Na medida em que qualquer conteúdo é construído como pesquisa de investimento, deve considerar e aceitar que este não tem como objetivo e nem foi preparado de acordo com os requisitos legais concebidos para promover a independência da pesquisa de investimento, desta forma, deve ser considerado material de marketing sob as leis e regulações relevantes. Por favor, certifique-se que leu e compreendeu a nossa Notificação sobre Pesquisa de Investimento não-independente e o Aviso de Risco, relativos à informação supracitada, os quais podem ser acedidos aqui.